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Fire disasters are one of the most common technological disasters in Iran. These disasters have killed many people and resulted in significant economic loss. The "Plasco" building fire in 2017 is one example of these catastrophic disasters, when most of Iran was affected by its tragic news. Regarding the increasing number of risk factors for fire disasters, we aimed to study future scenarios for such disasters in the country. The present study is a futuristic study with an exploratory approach that uses an intuitive logic scenario development approach. We used document analysis, semi-structured interviews, and the Delphi technique to identify driving forces and develop scenario stories, and finally those scenario stories were validated. In the document analysis phase, 22 documents were identified and analysed. After collecting information related to documents and analysing ten interviews, 41 of the driving forces were identified. By drawing the scenario matrix, four alternative scenarios for the future of fire disasters were developed. Two dimensions for scenario development were the correct application of fire prevention laws and access to driving technologies. Policymakers can concentrate on these key factors for best planning in the mitigation of fire disasters. In addition, studying scenarios can help managers and officials to better develop strategic plans for disaster risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Zagros Mountains Range is an important structural unit in south western Iran and accommodates a significant portion of the 2.5 cm/year convergence between Arabia and Eurasia. This structural unit includes folds, thrusts, strike-slip faults and salt diapirs. There is evidence of past failures in the area, probably some 11,000 years ago. In the order of 30 million cubic metres of rock debris was moved from the Kabir Kuh Anticline as well as rock failures from the Ravandi Anticline. Investigations indicated 4.5 m of landslide/rock fall debris underlying about 28 m of lake deposits and 5.5 m of recent river alluvium upstream of the Seymareh Dam area. The direction of the Seymareh River bed was displaced by about 1,000 m to the northeast, forming a sharp river meander near the entrance to the gorge of the Ravandi Anticline where the Seymareh Dam is being constructed. The paper reports the rock slope instability modelling, kinematic analysis of slope faces and landslide hazard zoning undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To model the temporal variations in malaria episodes in a hypo-endemic area of Iran and to assess the feasibility of an epidemic early warning system. Methods and Materials Malaria episode data for Kahnooj District, south-east Iran, were collected from the local health system for the period 1994–2002. Plasmodium species-specific models were generated using Poisson regression. Starting with a simple model which included only temporal effects, we iteratively added more explanatory variables to maximize goodness of fit. Results Of 18 268 recorded malaria episodes, more than 67% were due to P. vivax. In addition to seasonality and secular trend, we found that incorporating a 1-month time lag between key meteorological variables and the predicted number of cases maximized goodness of fit. Maximum temperature, mean relative humidity and previous numbers of malaria cases were the most important predictors. These were included in the model with lags of no less than three dekads, i.e. three 10-day periods or effectively 1 month. Conclusion Simple models based on climatic factors and information on past case numbers may be useful in improving the quality of the malaria control programme in Iran, particularly in terms of assuring accurate targeting of interventions in time and space. The models developed in this study are based on explanatory data that incorporate a lag of 1 month (i.e. data that were recorded 21–50 days previously). In practice, this translates into an operational ‘window’ of 1 month. Provided appropriate modes of data exchange exist between key stakeholders and appropriate systems for operational response are in place, this type of early warning information has the potential to lead to significant reductions in malaria morbidity in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]