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Palm oil is a very important commodity especially to Malaysia and Indonesia. However, Latin American countries have significant industries, particularly Colombia. Climate change (CC) is a highly probable phenomenon which will affect diseases of oil palm (OP) with Phytophthora palmivora causing devastating outbreaks in Latin America and especially Colombia. Furthermore, the oomycete is an endemic pathogen to other crops in Malaysia such as durian, and is capable of causing disease of OP in vitro. A similar disease has been recorded in Thailand. It is crucial that P. palmivora is controlled in Malaysia and Indonesia because the organism is highly virulent, although there are acute and chronic forms. This current paper investigates the effect of CC on P. palmivora disease and on OP survival via a CLIMEX model for future suitable growth of OP. Postulated schemes are provided for Malaysia and Indonesia for acute and chronic forms of the disease which indicate an extremely high and increasing threat, likely to reduce the sustainability of the OP industry by 2050 and further by 2070 and/or 2100. Brazil appears less threatened by the disease under these scenarios, but their OP is likely to have 100% mortality. The chronic and acute forms of the malady present reduced and high threats respectively to Malaysia and Indonesia. The data herein will be useful for, inter alia, plantation managers who will be able to assess the accuracy of these scenarios in the future. Amelioration methods are required urgently and quarantine procedures need strengthening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palm oil is very important. This relates to the large economic return and the negative environmental impact threatening the sustainability of the industry. Malaysia is the second largest producer after Indonesia and reaps the benefits and faces some of the problems. Oil palms (OP) in Malaysia are susceptible to basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, of major concern to sustainability. The methods for assessing this disease have not changed for decades and are prime candidates for Agriculture 4.0 technology. Application of modern climate computer models using big data sets and providing suitability for growth data for OP, indicate how OP will be affected detrimentally by climate change (CC) until the year 2100, which are employed herein to provide disease assessments. This is a novel approach. The methods provide information to assess the sustainability of OP in Malaysia. CC-related increased BSR are from i) an increase in virulence of G. boninense and ii) unsuitable climate making OP less resistant to BSR. Comparisons of regions for initial infection rates and OP climate suitability over 80 years are made herein. CC will not affect the level of the disease greatly until after 2050 from reduced OP resistance but the situation will deteriorate between 2070 and 2100. Remediation methods to ameliorate CC effects on OP and concomitantly reducing BSR are required. BSR will become increasingly more detrimental to the palm oil industry in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.