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The roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors in the dynamics of tropical large herbivore populations are poorly understood. Understanding these dynamics is particularly important if the herbivore is prey for an apex predator of conservation concern because a decline in the prey could cause the predator to decline. We tested hypotheses about the roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors in the dynamics of 2 tropical ungulates, Rusa deer (Rusa timorensis) and wild pigs (Sus scrofa), in Komodo National Park, eastern Indonesia. We counted the dung of Rusa deer and wild pigs (a validated index of abundance for these 2 species) along permanently marked transects at 10 sites over 4 islands annually during 2003-2014 to estimate ungulate abundance. Ungulates were much more abundant on the 2 larger islands compared with the 2 smaller islands, with wild pig dung completely absent from the latter. During our 12-year study, Rusa deer abundance declined slightly on Nusa Kode and Rinca islands, did not change on Komodo Island, and increased on Gili Motang Island. There was a decline in abundance of wild pigs on Komodo Island and an increase on Rinca Island. Annual variation in population growth rate was strongly density-dependent and island-specific for both species, with annual rainfall and vegetation composition being relatively unimportant. Population growth rates of Rusa deer exhibited spatial synchrony, with synchrony declining with increasing intersite distance. Our findings confirm the importance of density dependence in the dynamics of tropical large herbivore populations. However, the strength of density dependence varied between species and spatially. Declines of Rusa deer and wild pigs on the larger 2 islands, which are strongholds of the Komodo dragon, are cause for concern. Continued monitoring of ungulate populations is critical for the conservation of Komodo dragon populations in Komodo National Park. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring the abundances of prey is important for informing the management of threatened and endangered predators. We evaluated the usefulness of faecal counts and distance sampling for monitoring the abundances of rusa deer Rusa timorensis, feral pig Sus scrofa and water buffalo Bubalus bubalis, the three key prey of the Komodo dragon Varanus komodoensis, at 11 sites on five islands in and aroundKomodoNational Park, eastern Indonesia.We used species-specific global detection functions and cluster sizes (i.e. multiple covariates distance sampling) to estimate densities of rusa deer and feral pig, but there were too few observations to estimate densities of water buffalo. Rusa deer densities varied from from 2.5 to 165.5 deer/km2 with coefficients of variation (CVs) of 15-105%. Feral pig densities varied from 0.0 to 25.2 pigs/km2 with CVs of 25-106%. There was a positive relationship between estimated faecal densities and estimated population densities for both rusa deer and feral pig: the form of the relationship was non-linear for rusa deer, but there was similar support for linear and non-linear relationships for feral pig. We found that faecal counts were more useful when ungulate densities were too low to estimate densities with distance sampling. Faecal count methods were also easier for field staff to conduct than distance sampling. Because spatial and temporal variation in ungulate density is likely to influence the population dynamics of the Komodo dragon, we recommend that annual monitoring of ungulates in and around Komodo National Park be undertaken using distance sampling and faecal counts. The relationships reported here will also be useful for managers establishing monitoring programmes for feral pig, rusa deer and water buffalo elsewhere in their native and exotic ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]