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This paper examines the government's strong interest in Indonesia's economic activities, especially in the context of post-COVID-19 economic recovery. The objective is to qualitatively analyze economic recovery strategies, especially in the MSME and tourism sectors, which have a significant impact on economic growth. A dynamic systems approach with qualitative methods was applied for collecting data through interviews, observations, and the use of secondary data from authentic articles. The findings highlight the need for support in the MSME sector, including improving the quality of human resources, financial management, tax incentives, credit relief and restructuring, increased working capital financing, product support, and e-learning training. The tourism sector requires innovation and diversification in the areas of product development, destinations, and tourism infrastructure management. This study makes a novel contribution by presenting a qualitative system dynamics conceptual model for post-COVID-19 economic recovery strategies. Future research will focus on testing and validating the components of this model in the context of MSMEs and tourism and will help policymakers, management teams, and relevant stakeholders in their efforts to recover MSMEs and tourism sectors from the impacts of disasters. This will have a significant impact on everyone involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities, which have interfered with the ecological system, have led to global warming. This has led to the release of carbon stocks into the atmosphere, thereby reducing the function of carbon sinks in places with vegetated land. With increased human activities, vegetated land will soon become non-vegetated. This is because the increased human activities have led to the absorption of higher amounts of carbon in the atmosphere than the required level. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate land cover on carbon stocks in Prabumulih City, South Sumatera Province, Indonesia. The study employed a random field survey using a dynamic system, with the results showing that land cover consisted of oil palm plantations, mixed plantations, grass, swamp shrubs, and rivers. However, the area was dominated by rubber plantations, and as a result, the carbon stocks continued to decline. For instance, in 2008, the level of carbon stock was 2,438.72 Gg and fell to 2,190.85 Gg in 2020, indicating a 4.8% decrease. It is projected that by 2030, the carbon stock in land cover will be 1,988.07 Gg. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Indonesia has one of the world's biggest geothermal energy reserves, accounting for 28.61 Gigawatts of electric energy (GWe). However, as of 2022, the installed geothermal capacity in Indonesia was only around 2.175 GWe, just 7.6% of its estimated potential. Geothermal energy development is required for Indonesia to empower sustainable energy systems and achieve its target of reaching 7.2 GW of geothermal energy by 2025. The geothermal energy sector is viewed as a complex dynamic system, with complicated challenges, including technical, financial, infrastructure, and many other issues. The purpose of this paper is to understand the complex nature of geothermal systems in Indonesia. To that end, this paper examines the geothermal development from a systematic and holistic standpoint, employing the interview technique to enable the conceptualization of the geothermal systems using the system dynamics (SD) approach. The SD model exhibits several underlying and important factors influencing the development of geothermal energy in Indonesia, such as capital investment, the collection of upstream data to reduce risk, infrastructure construction, pricing, incentives, permit procedures, environmental concerns, and public acceptance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves that grow in coastal areas have ecological and economic values. Research on the behavior of a mangrove ecotourism system is needed as a basis for management to provide sustainable benefits. This study aimed to describe the conceptualization of a mangrove ecotourism system, formulate a mangrove ecotourism model and formulate a scenario for Kampung Blekok mangrove ecotourism in Situbondo Regency. This study used a quantitative analysis with a dynamic system approach to see the behavior of the ecotourism system on the economic and ecological dimensions. The research results on the conceptualization of the ecotourism system with causal loop diagrams showed that the economic subsystem was composed of response variables in the form of ecotourism management income and community business income in ecotourism areas and gross regional domestic product. Meanwhile, the ecological subsystem consisted of response variables in mangroves' death, planting, and rehabilitation. Model formulation with stock-flow diagrams demonstrated the relationship between response variables to explain the system. In the economic subsystem, the variable of community business acceptance had the highest sensitivity that could affect ecotourism income. While in the ecological subsystem, the highest sensitivity was on the variable of mangrove planting, which could affect the density of mangroves. The combination of economic subsystem scenarios optimized tourist visits and streamlined spending. The combination of ecological subsystem scenarios that became the priority was the addition of mangrove seedlings and controlling pests that caused the death of mangrove seedlings. Stakeholders are expected to synergize with each other in managing activities in ecotourism. Apart from exploiting their economic potential, the community and the private sector are also expected to participate in maintaining compliance with regulations to preserve mangroves. The government should monitor and enforce regulations related to ecotourism and support the development of mangrove ecotourism so that its benefits are sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a banking duopoly model with a macroprudential policy in Indonesia called loan-to-deposit ratio-based reserve requirement (LDR-RR). The objective of the policy is to control the banking loans growth using a LDR-based penalty scheme that requires banks to save more money in the central bank to maintain their liquidity ratio. Following recent studies on banking models, we analyze a piecewise discrete-time model with two banks. We assume that the dynamics of the deposits follows the discrete logistic growth. Moreover, our model has two borders, hence we examine the resulting border-collision bifurcations. From the local stability analysis we find that, according to the parameter values, only the border-collision bifurcation or the flip bifurcation occurs. Finally, we perform several numerical simulations to confirm the stability analysis' results. Our discrete dynamical system offers various possibilities of development for future research perspectives. • The admissible equilibria can also lose stability via border collision bifurcation. • We are able to exclude the case where the market is served by a unique bank. • The parameters of the LDR-RR play a key role in the lending activity of banks. • An excessive increase of the parameters of the LDR-RR leads to periods of instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to determine the impact of accelerating duration on profits and contingency cost.The method using infrastructure project building in Surabaya Indonesia 2020 historical data set, followed by System Dynamic (SD) modeling and ending with a scenario of the relationship between project duration acceleration, addition profits and crashing cost.Project acceleration can improve project performance by considering the effect on profits and contingency costs,with Schedule Performance Index (SPI) up to 1.06 can increase profit between 1.05%-4.72% due to reduced in indirect costs,otherwise crashing cost will reduce contingency cost between 0.43%-1.91% of the contract value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the existence of monetary policy transmission via bank lending channel on Indonesian rural banks that located across provinces. The datasets consist of 1860 rural banks that located in 34 provinces in Indonesia. Using the dynamic system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations, the empirical results indicate that monetary transmission via bank lending channel works on rural bank in Indonesia. When the central bank of Indonesia tightening the monetary policy, the lending channeled by rural banks reduce, and vice-versa. Our findings implies that the transmission of monetary policy via bank lending channel is remain strong policy provided by central bank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volatile and vulnerable conditions during disaster relief cause many problems in the coordination of aid replenishments. Research states that partnership improves coordination, reducing the uncertainty condition along the supply chain, including replenishment. This paper aims to fulfill the research gap by examining the impact of partnership in the disaster relief process. The model's dynamic characteristics were examined by modifying the beer distribution game through Vensim PLE Plus. The model had been validated and verified with the West Java Regional Disaster Management Authority (BPPD). The simulation was run for two types of products: repetitive demand (food package) and one-time demand (blanket). Total cost, bullwhip effect, and total distribution time for each scenario are then compared. The simulation results show that the proposed scenario, developed based on blockchain usage on the partnership system, can reduce the total distribution time by about 43% for the blanket and 27% for the food package. Meanwhile, the total reducing cost for blankets is 29% and 13% for food packages. However, on the other side, the partnership system had aggravated the bullwhip effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to see the extent to which the real conditions of society can be separated from the trap of poverty due to consuming cigarettes. This research uses secondary data which taken from various sources of publication. The variables used are input variables and output variables. Input variables are in the form of community income. Output variables used are average per capita expenditure. Data analysis using Dynamic System Analysis with software of ITHINK ® Ver. 6.01 from the High Performance System (2000). The result of this research indicate that in the condition of the community consuming 1 cigarette per day shows that groups of community are difficult to escape from the trap of poverty until the end of Medium Term and Long Term Development Plan is poor society, almost poor society and middle to lower society. While middle to middle society, middle to upper society and rich society still have an income balance from the beginning of the research year to the next 20 years. While the result of the scenario of consumption of 2 packs of cigarettes per day show besides poor society, almost poor society and middle to lower society are difficult to escape from the trap of poverty, middle to middle society are in poverty for the next 20 years as well. Therefore the goal of the first SDGs in Indonesia to eliminate poverty is difficult to achieve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

E-money is an embodiment of a modern banking system that uses a means of payment using cards or applications that are already connected to a bank account. Every year e-money users increase significantly, but the increase is not accompanied by an increase in transactions made using e-money. Last year, it was noted that e-money users were only 35% active. Some clinical studies have established an assessment of service quality, there are several dimensions that are assessed according to the topic of the study. The dimensions of service quality used in this study are dimensions of ease of use, reliability, responsiveness, privacy, and security. It is important to develop a systems analysis approach that can be used for the development and evaluation of service quality, both at the tactical and strategic level. This study aims to present a taxonomic analysis of the dynamic system approach for modeling and simulating customer satisfaction on the quality of e-money services. By using a dynamic system, a model can be drawn that describes the relationship of dimensions on service quality, so that it can be used as a reference to create new policies in order to increase customer satisfaction. The results of this modeling are subjective frameworks to assist companies in making policies that are suitable for increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Salt demands in Indonesia have continued to increase over the past decade, while salt production fluctuates and still depends on weather conditions. This makes salt imports tend to increase and salt self-sufficiency is difficult to achieve. Indonesia needs serious efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, both consumption salt and industrial salt. In this study we identify problems that exist in the salt industry and determine the factors that have a significant effect on the system. The national salt production system is represented in a dynamic model using the System Dynamic. We use System Dynamic based on the consideration that this framework offers the ability to combine expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model non-linear behavior that has a significant contribution to the national salt production. System dynamic modeling is also able to associate between variables in a closed causal loop so that actions taken by changing one variable will have an impact on the initial conditions. From the base model simulation results, we developed several scenarios to increase salt fulfillment ratio. To support the sustainability of the salt business, we make a price scenario that supports salt business remains profitable for farmers. To increase salt production, we provide a scenario of increasing productivity through optimal technology implementation. As a result of the two scenarios, total salt production reaches 5 million tons per year. The fulfillment ratio of consumption salt and industrial salt can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Horticultural crops production in Sleman District was dominated by salacca-pondoh, which reached 73-kiloton total production in 2016. This number was over 98% of the total salacca-pondoh's production in Yogyakarta Province. On the other hand, the farmers got low price during great harvest season, because they did not have a bargaining position against the seller. This research formulated salacca-pondoh's business as a common condition in Sleman District in the form of system dynamics simulation. The factors influencing the farmers' low income during harvest season were also identified. The result showed several seasonal "pitfall" points that made farmer's income dropped "rock bottom" against the average value. This phenomenon may potentially make the farmers avoid planting salacca-pondoh and switch to more profitable fruit instead. Product diversification, either vertical or horizontal can be a step to increase the income of the farmers and intensify the economic activity in Sleman District by allocating some of the fruit and its waste to be diversified and converted into profitable derivative products. On the other side, the government can give price subsidy and market priority during high harvest season while the fruit is flooding the market to give the safety net for the price to not drop below farmer margin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cases of leptospirosis persist in Demak District of Indonesia every year. It's needed a mix method (epidemiology, ecology, and system thinking approach) to analyze and to choose the best intervention based on time series data. The study located in Demak, Jawa Tengah on May to November, 2014. Based on an existing model that formulated by time series data for six years (2007 - 2013), leptospirosis control was simulated using a system dynamics method. The simulation was based on seven pre-defined scenarios. The software used to assist the completion of the dynamic model was Powersim version 2.5 for Windows. Predictions extended over 5 years. The model predicted that, if the intervention was biological control and included rodent control, the leptospirosis cases could be prevented up to 20.7%. Wound care could prevent up to 1.6% of the disease. Efforts to prevent direct contact between healthy humans and urine of infected rodents had the strongest impact on reducing leptospirosis in this model, as this could decrease cases by up to 98.14%. Domestic waste management as a source of rodent food in households reduced the predicted number of leptospirosis cases by 1.8%. A combination of the prevention of contact between healthy humans with contaminated water, wound care, biological and mechanical rodent control, and domestic waste management together resulted in a predicted incidence of 0.45% leptospirosis cases per year. The model was a useful tool to predict the efficiency of leptospirosis control under various intervention scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a circular economy, extended producer responsibility (EPR) is a regulatory approach that accounts for all environmental costs associated with a product throughout its life cycle. When considering the EPR, the regulator must (1) design an integrated framework for different stakeholders and (2) provide effective policies to create financial incentives to accelerate the circular system. Recycling funds and subsidies are the most prominent financial strategies that can either encourage or curtail the flows of recycled products. In Indonesia, a few companies provided recycling bonus s to their customers as incentives to increase the recycling rate. However, the recycling rate was not as effective as expected by the enterprise because recycling was practiced by a limited number of companies, rendering it economically unviable. The enterprises hope the government could develop a recycling fund system. In order to develop the recycling fund system, a system dynamic model was proposed and simulated to optimize the recycling funds and subsidies based on decentralized reverse supply chains. Although it is not a novelty model; however, the research show a very significant results for the government in Indonesia. This enabled a more precise, well-planned, and sustainable decision-making process for the EPR. In addition, by utilizing the system dynamic model with different scenarios in a real case study (aseptic paper packaging waste), we found that the capacity of the recycler could become the reference for the funds to be paid by the importer-producer group, wherein the recycling rate will increase with an increase in the recycling fund. • When formulating an EPR scheme, two points must be considered: framework and policies. • A system dynamic model was proposed and simulated to get the optimal solution. • A related case study involving aseptic paper packaging (APP) was considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of a skillful seasonal streamflow forecast may positively affect rice production on the island of Java, Indonesia. For that purpose, three forecasting approaches have been tested for skill. ESP and ESP-ENSO are climatology based forecasting approaches, where the latter is further conditioned on an ENSO index. The ECMWF-S4 system provides dynamic precipitation forecasts. The resulting forecasts were tested for skill. In all cases, skill is relatively modest. ESP-ENSO forecast skill trumps that of ESP, which, in turn is higher than that of the ECMWF-S4 based forecasts. Some recommendations are made for further understanding forecast skill, and for approaches that may lead to skill improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]