1. A Quantile Regression Approach to Examine Changes in County Unemployment Rates in Indiana during the Great Recession.
- Author
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Srinivasan, Arun K. and Arano, Kathleen G.
- Subjects
- *
UNEMPLOYMENT statistics , *QUANTILE regression , *EMPLOYMENT , *RECESSIONS , *COUNTIES - Abstract
We take a closer look at changes in county unemployment rates in Indiana during the Great Recession and evaluate how local population and the mix of sectoral employment inuence these patterns. Using a quantile regression approach, we specifically observe the impacts on counties on both tails of the changes in unemployment distribution. We find the impact of sectoral composition of a county's workforce depends on its geographical classification. Overall, greater reliance on pro-cyclical industries, most notably manufacturing, magnifies the increases in unemployment during the recession. This effect is further amplified for MSA counties. In contrast, counter-cyclical industries, education in particular, insulates the counties in the top 10th percentile of the distribution of changes in unemployment rates, and a stronger insulation effect is observed for MSA counties. At the bottom 10th percentile, education marginally amplifies changes in unemployment rates for MSA counties, whereas it insulates non-MSA counties from the same distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020