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• Manufacturing share in India's GDP has increased by about 16 percentage points between 2003 and 2018. • Dominant contribution to increased manufacturing GDP share is made by petroleum refining. • There has been a tremendous increase in the real value-added share of ICT equipment industry. • For assessing properly the performance of manufacturing, double-deflation of GDP is essential. Contrary to a widely held impression that the share of manufacturing in India's GDP has long stagnated, the paper claims that it has increased significantly. Measured at the prices of different goods and services prevailing in 2004-05, and deflation applied separately with input prices as well as output prices to account for differential input price trends, the GDP share of manufacturing has increased during the post-reform period from about 17 per cent in 1993-94 to about 32 per cent in 2018-19. The paper notes that the concept of real share in GDP relates to the volume effect and represents the change in the share of the volume of manufacturing activity out of the volume of all economic activities in the Indian economy. Some explanation is provided for the apparent stagnancy of the share of manufacturing in India's GDP at current prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent contributions to the business cycle literature point towards the presence of potential nonlinearities in the relationship between similarities in sectoral composition of countries and their bilateral business cycle synchronization. By using a dynamic indicator of structural change (as opposed to the traditional static indicators), this article attempts to identify whether the similarities in the evolution of structural change across countries influence their bilateral business cycle synchronization heterogeneously across quantiles. With focus on India and its advanced and developing trade partners, this article employs the quantile regression model with non-additive fixed effects to assess this relationship. While India and its advanced countries' trade partners display a homogeneous and positive relationship between the similarity in evolution of agriculture and industry and their bilateral business cycle synchronization, there exists a homogeneously negative relationship with respect to the service sector. Similarities in the evolution of the industry and the service sector between India and its developing trade partners, on the other hand, have a heterogeneous impact on their bilateral business cycle synchronization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the Indian economy during a peak period of high growth between 2005 and 2012 to analyse the nature and patterns of household‐level transitions across different sectors, characterised by varying degrees of formality/informality and various production structures and labour processes. We find that even within this brief period, there has been a huge volume of household‐level transitions across sectors. However, the overall economic structure, and its segmentations, has continued to be reproduced, along with a regeneration of 'traditional' non‐capitalist informal spaces. To ascertain the nature of household‐level transitions in terms of economic well‐being, we employ a counterfactual analysis. We find that majority of transitions in the economy have been 'unfavourable' in nature, with large proportion of households undergoing sectoral transitions that are not optimal for them, given their socio‐economic characteristics. Furthermore, the likelihood of 'favourable' versus 'unfavourable' sectoral transition, on average, significantly varies with household characteristics, some of which, like social caste, are structurally given and cannot be optimally chosen by households. Drawing upon this analysis, we reflect on the competing strands of literature that seek to explain the persistence of informality. Our analysis highlights the complexity of India's contemporary development trajectory, whereby the pre‐existing economic structure is reproduced, paradoxically, through a continuous reshuffling and reconstitution of economic spaces, accompanied by significant volume of 'unfavourable' household‐level sectoral transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Women in rural India are largely concentrated in agriculture. Most women workers are either working as unpaid labour on their family farms or are landless workers working for wages on others' farms. However, in recent years, we see deagrarianization at the household level in terms of a decrease in the proportion of households that earn their primary income from agriculture as well as the withdrawal of women from agriculture. These patterns have mostly been studied concerning the mechanization of agriculture. In the larger history of development, reallocation of resources from agriculture to other productive sectors is usual although the exact mechanics have varied across time and space based on the context. However, the gender dimensions of such processes have not been studied. In this paper, we use the India Human Development Survey (IHDS 2004/2005 and IHDS 2011–2012), the only available pan-India panel data set to first map the change in female workforce participation outcomes as the households undergo deagrarianization, focusing on alternative trajectories of women either moving out of the workforce or transitioning to non-agricultural occupations. Second, using a linear probability model framework, the paper analyses the effect of deagrarianization at the household level on the likelihood of a woman staying in the workforce. We find that a substantial proportion of women transitioned across agriculture and non-agriculture occupations and that the transitions are not unidirectional. Further, we find that the proportion of women who dropped out of the workforce between 2004–2005 and 2011–2012 is higher among the households that have deagrarianized as compared to households that have stayed in agriculture. The paper also finds that deagrarianization negatively affects the likelihood of a woman staying in the workforce and household and individual-level characteristics such as religion, marital status and education are significant determinants of the likelihood of a woman staying in the workforce. We also find that deagrarianization negatively affects the likelihood of women entering the workforce after controlling for various household and individual level characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the Green Revolution in Asia, the gap in agricultural yield with the developed world has been closed, while the gap in farm labour productivity has greatly widened. This reveals a deepening agrarian and environmental crisis in India. The industrial mode of production has led to the massive use of costly industrial inputs to increase yields and offset economies of scale that are almost impossible to achieve in this densely populated country. Such a development path is a trap for millions Indian micro-farmers and their natural capital. We then unveil the promises of a type of agroecology called 'natural farming' that has developed in Andhra Pradesh, a State in South India. Andhra's natural farming has pioneered the adoption of technical and organizational innovations that could lead to the first large-scale agroecological transition in the world. But in 2019, these local innovations were accused of following a regressive path and endangering the country's food security. This attack reveals the current omnipotence of the industrial sociotechnical regime over science, as well as a conception of science and progress antithetical to agroecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using national-level employment data, this paper explores both the supply and demand-side factors responsible for stalling India's structural transformation on the employment side. We have found that although the overall LF participation has consistently been declining, the size of open unemployment and discouraged LF are rising at an unprecedented pace. This employment crisis arose because of the stalled structural transformation owing to the lack of effective demand for skilled workers in the non-farm sectors. This crisis is not only reflected in stagnant real wages, but it also adversely affected GDP growth and the incidence of poverty. Hence, unless measures are taken quickly, India's demographic dividend, which ends in 2040, is under severe threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new multi‐sector growth model that features nonhomothetic, constant elasticity of substitution preferences, and accommodates long‐run demand and supply drivers of structural change for an arbitrary number of sectors. The model is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump‐shaped evolution of manufacturing, and the rise of services over time. We estimate the demand system derived from the model using household‐level data from the United States and India, as well as historical aggregate‐level panel data for 39 countries during the postwar period. The estimated model parsimoniously accounts for the broad patterns of sectoral reallocation observed among rich, miracle, and developing economies. Our estimates support the presence of strong nonhomotheticity across time, income levels, and countries. We find that income effects account for the bulk of the within‐country evolution of sectoral reallocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identify a basic dualism within the informal manufacturing sector (IMS) in India between a 'traditional'/non-capitalist segment, comprising family-based household enterprises that constitute the vast majority of the IMS, and a segment of 'modern'/capitalist enterprises employing wage labour. We focus on the high-growth decade of 2000–2001 to 2010–2011 to analyse whether there has been a marked tendency of this 'traditional' segment to transform into a 'modern' segment. We construct a variable, the net accumulation fund, which indicates the ability of an enterprise to accumulate and grow, and explore its evolution, over time and across industries, for enterprises with different production structures and firm-level characteristics. We show that while, on one hand, the average 'traditional' enterprise has been able to economically reproduce itself rather than withering away, the dualism between the 'traditional'/non-capitalist and the 'modern'/capitalist segments has been reproduced and further reinforced during this period of high economic growth, raising questions about the process of economic transformation as envisaged in much of development literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to analyse the observed "jobless growth" between 1993-1994 and 2011-2012 based on structural transformation to explain why the elasticity of employment generation to gross domestic product growth has declined during this period. Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses the job generation and growth decomposition tool to quantify the effects of inter-sectoral mobility of workers, intra-sectoral productivity changes and demographic changes on per capita value added growth. Alternative scenarios are generated to simulate the effect of higher female labour participation rates. Findings: Structural transformation in India between 1993-1994 and 2011-2012 was characterised by increasing labour productivity in most sectors, inter-sectoral mobility of workers and a decline in the employment rate. About 81 per cent of the increase in per capita value added was because of a rise in labour productivity; about 24 per cent was because of inter-sectoral shifts of labour; and about 9 per cent because of demographic changes. The decline in the employment rate had a negative effect of −14.20 per cent. The process of transformation was unconventional. First, labour productivity growth was the highest in the service sector and second, the bulk of the movement of labour was to the construction sector. Research limitations/implications: This paper focusses only on the quantitative dimensions of employment and offers no new explanations why female labour force participation declined. Originality/value: This paper offers a new perspective on the debate of jobless growth focussing on structural transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth and structural transformation of the Indian economy have led to an increased demand for skilled manpower, particularly from the industrial and services sectors. This paper attempts to study the changing needs of skill development in India and flags up some important policy concerns. An analysis of the demographic dividend suggests that in addition to the new entrants, the existing labour force too needs to be skilled. Together with the quantitative challenges, there is a serious concern with regard to the quality of skill training in the country. Apprenticeship training remains an underutilised option and needs to be harnessed optimally. Over the years, the central government and state governments have been implementing skill development programmes without robust coordination or monitoring mechanisms to ensure convergence. All efforts including those of the private sector need to be synchronised in order to meet the skill needs of the labour force and the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper explores the recent fall in female labour force participation and its socio-economic determinants in India. The major contribution of this paper is: to explore both micro- and macro-level factors which determine female labour force participation rate (LFPR); to examine the “U shape” female LFPR, by examining the likely income and substitution effects of the real wage increase, to identify the sub-sectors within manufacturing and service sectors that could create jobs for new female job aspirants and those older women displaced from agriculture in recent years; and thus to understand the conditions under which female LFPR could be raised. Using both macro-level and household survey (NSS) data, we find that the recent fillip in the process of structural transformation has pushed a large number of females out of agriculture. The growing mechanization in agriculture and rising capital intensity in manufacturing sectors together have limited the opportunity for females because of their low education and skill and due to other cultural constraints. We also found that the rise in real wages in rural areas and the consequent improvement in the standard of living has produced a strong negative income effect which outweighs the positive substitution effect and as a result female LFPR has declined substantially. However, with the massive increase in female enrollment in secondary and higher levels of education, it could be expected that the substitution effect of the increase in real wage would become stronger if appropriate measures are taken by the government, which are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The relationship between processed foods, socio-economic status, and obesity is estimated for women in peri-urban India. • Semi-processed food calories are associated with prevalence of obesity in lower-middle socio-economic status (SES) groups, while ultra-processed food calories are associated with prevalence of obesity in higher SES groups. • The relationship between processed food consumption and obesity displays three thresholds defined by excess calorie consumption, physical intensity of occupational activity, and age. Across the thresholds, processed food consumption and obesity are positively correlated. Before these thresholds, there are no significant correlations. • To stem the nutrition transition towards obesity among the poor, food policy interventions need to incentivize consumption of healthy diets and physical activity for vulnerable individuals living in similar peri-urban contexts. The 'State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020′ report states that switching to healthy diets will both prevent backsliding into hunger and help countries meet their sustainability goals. In 2019–2020, 17 percent of India's adult population was undernourished. At the same time, however, 23 percent of all adults were obese. The increasing prevalence of obesity implies that improving diets and reducing risks for obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major food security challenge for India in the coming years. Overconsumption of calories from processed foods is known to increase the risk of obesity. To gain insights into the dietary transition and its relationship with obesity, we use cross-sectional data from a primary socio-economic survey conducted in the rural-urban interface of Bangalore, a mega-city in India that is characterized by high economic development. We show that for women in lower-middle socio-economic status (SES) groups, higher share of calories from semi-processed foods (SPF) is associated with a higher prevalence of obesity, while excess consumption of calories from ultra-processed foods (UPF) is associated with a higher obesity prevalence among women in higher SES groups. Older women and women who consume above the recommended daily allowance (RDA) of calories are more vulnerable to excess calories from SPF consumption than younger women and women who consume less than the RDA of calories. Furthermore, a lower prevalence of obesity is observed among women who consume excess calories from SPF but engage in labor-intensive occupational activity. These results speak to the need for interventions that incentivize weight loss and increased physical activity. The result that SPF consumption is associated with an increased prevalence of obesity especially among lower-middle SES group calls for interventions that increase access to and affordability of healthy diets. Policy instruments such as diversifying the public distribution system (PDS) are important to improve accessibility and affordability of healthy diets. In addition, increasing sugar and processed food taxes and incentivizing companies to invest in culturally sensitive food labeling should be considered to shift consumer demand towards healthier diet choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese and Indian aggregate productivity growth has been significantly different over the last 30 years. This paper studies the role of structural transformation in accounting for the aggregate productivity growth gap between two economies. We calibrate a neoclassical model of structural transformation for China and India. The model implies that higher productivity growth in China's manufacturing and agriculture accounts for most of the aggregate productivity growth gap between the two countries. According to the development strategy of China's government, China would start a new phase of structural transformation whereby employment is moving from manufacturing to services. Since the productivity growth gap in services is pretty small between China and India, if China wants to remain superior in relative productivity, it should improve the productivity growth rate of services. In contrast, the relative performance in India hinges on closing its productivity gap in agriculture and manufacturing relative to China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structural transformation of the occupational process is a much-avowed outcome in the developmental process. It has begun to occur since 1983, after a long time in post-Independent India, and seems to have quickened during the post-Reforms period. However, there are several anomalies in this process such as the lack of industrial employment, the emergence of unorganised employment, and so on. A structural transformation of employment should be about shifting from the low productivity-low wage sector to the high productivity-high wage sector (with reasonable social security), which is, however, not in the offing. This paper mulls over empirical evidence on these trends in employment, the magnitude of structural transformation and the statistical determinants of this change, which provides an interesting picture about the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper attempts to explore the pattern of industrial growth in India since 1980. Both the descriptive and panel regression analysis are done for estimating the results. To ascertain the impact of the 1991 economic reforms in determining the structure of industrial growth, comparative analyses of the pre- (1980–81 to 1991–92) and post-reform periods (1992–93 to 2005–06) were also done. The overall results show that the Indian manufacturing industries are dominated by the capital-intensive low technology industries. This indicates that in the industrial sector, the higher proportion of low technology industries prevails. Further, using the Gini coefficients, the actual pattern of Indian industrial growth is determined. The study also failed to find a direct relationship between economic reforms and structural transformations within the sector. Moreover, the historical and empirical evidence points towards the investment in indigenous R&D as an important factor in determining growth and sustainability. But, for the process of technological accumulation, the role of government seems important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• I compare the process of structural transformation in both national data and household panel data in India. • The national data provides evidence that India is in the midst of structural transformation. • Household data tells a similar story, though rural households lag behind in key indicators. • The results have implications for using stylized facts to set policy agenda. This paper compares national-level data from India with 40 years of household panel data from rural India to track sectoral changes in employment and income as well as examine the hypothesis of induced innovation in agricultural production. In the national data, India appears to be in the midst of a structural transformation. The share of agriculture in GDP and employment has shrunk while agricultural output continues to grow. This productivity growth appears to adhere to the induced innovation hypothesis, as productivity per hectare has increased more rapidly than productivity per worker. Many of the same patterns exist in the household data. Tracking households across time, I observe agricultural output has increased, despite more households engaging in off-farm labor. Household agricultural production is highly specialized and has increased its reliance on improved inputs. However, while agricultural income has grown, industrial and service income has remained stagnant, and the relative income of these households has declined in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]