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India has seen high levels of unemployment in recent years. Understanding how an episode of job loss affects household consumption expenditure is important for designing effective safety net programs. We apply difference-in-difference and quantile regressions to a high-frequency panel data from a nationally representative survey of 1,75,000 households in 2019 to estimate the impact of a job loss on household consumption expenditure – for urban and rural households, and households across different expenditure levels. We find that the loss of employment of an earning member leads to a significant immediate decline in household consumption expenditure. The decline is larger for urban households and households in the lowest and the highest income deciles. Durable and discretionary expenses go down the most. Expenditure on health and education also goes down significantly, especially, in urban areas. Our findings highlight the high vulnerability of urban households to economic shocks and can inform the design and targeting of income support and other safety-net programmes in India and other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the welfare impacts of illness shocks on rural agricultural households in the semi-arid tropical and humid eastern regions of India. These regions are characterized by rainfed agriculture, missing markets for credit and insurance, and limited access to publicly funded healthcare infrastructure. We find that illness shocks increase households' medical expenditures and reduce wage income. However, aggregate non-medical, food, and non-food consumption expenditures are insensitive to illness shocks. Disaggregating illness by the age and the gender of the household members, we observe that illness in male children leads to the largest increase in medical expenditure, and illness in prime-aged adults leads to the largest decline in per-capita wage earnings. We also find illness shocks leading to changes in household dietary diversity, higher travel expenditures, and a compensating reduction in spending on education and entertainment. Analysis of risk-coping strategies reveals that households rely on transfers from kinship networks and loans from informal sources like local moneylenders to smooth consumption. While large landowners rely on gifts from kinship networks, landless and smallholders increase borrowings from informal sources., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

A strand of research holds the view that restricting access to credit to regulate over-borrowing can worsen consumers' financial condition. Another strand of research holds the view that access to credit in the developing countries with subprime credit markets is determined by social groupings and ethnic affiliations. By merging these two strands of research, we investigate the impact of Andhra Pradesh microfinance act (2010) on the consumption expenditure of marginalised social groups and the upper caste Hindu groups in India. We construct an aggregated district level panel data for eight quarters and estimate the impact of unanticipated policy change. The results of our analysis show that the sudden restriction of access to credit has relatively larger impact on the consumption levels of the marginalised social groups: lower castes, tribes, and Muslims. The findings also confirm the failure of contingency policy enacted for smoothing consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper studies the effect of a law that banned micro-credit lending in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India. Regions in Andhra Pradesh are matched to regions that did not face the ban. A difference-in-difference estimation of changes in matched regions is used to establish a causal impact on average household consumption in the region. The results show that the average household consumption in the ban-affected regions dropped by 15% immediately after the ban compared to the matched regions, and persisted for four quarters. The result is robust to cross-sectional variations in regional exposure to micro-finance prior to the ban, variation in rural and urban locations and variations in matching strategy. The analysis points to a ban as a sub-optimal intervention to improve customer welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of 'financial inclusion' has become a central trope that legitimates a wide range of contemporary development practices. By constructing a new object of development - the 'financially excluded' - it facilitates the expansion of an increasingly corporatized microfinance technocracy. The present paper problematizes the underlying binaries of inclusion/exclusion and formal/informal finance upon which this narrative is based. Through an examination of the 2010 Andhra Pradesh microfinance crisis, it demonstrates key contradictions within the discourse and practices of commercial microfinance. In so doing, it demonstrates why the narrative of financial inclusion and its correlate notion of 'consumption smoothing' are inadequate tools with which to conceptualize the political economy of contemporary agrarian change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the welfare effects of a workfare programme in an economy where agents face exogenous income shocks and are unable to insure themselves through private markets. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated using data from two ICRISAT villages in the Indian state of Maharashtra, which had a functioning Employment Guarantee Scheme (EGS), in the period 1979–84. The optimal wage and the welfare gains of the program depend on how productive the EGS is, relative to the private sector. When agents are paid the optimal wage rate, they do not hold the non-interest-bearing asset for precautionary savings and all insurance is provided by the EGS. There are significant welfare gains from paying the optimal wage rate as opposed to simply paying the marginal product of labour in the EGS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]