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Purpose: Agricultural aggregation schemes provide numerous farmer-facing benefits, including reduced transportation costs and improved access to higher-demand urban markets. However, whether aggregation schemes also have positive food security dimensions for consumers dependent on peri-urban and local markets in developing country contexts is currently unknown. This paper aims to narrow this knowledge gap by exploring the actors, governance structures and physical infrastructures of the horticultural value chain of Bihar, India, to identify barriers to using aggregation to improve the distribution of fruits and vegetables to more local market environments. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses mixed methods. Quantitative analysis of market transaction data explores the development of aggregation supply pathways over space and time. In turn, semi-structured interviews with value chain actors uncover the interactions and decision-making processes with implications for equitable fruit and vegetable delivery. Findings: Whilst aggregation successfully generates multiple producer-facing benefits, the supply pathways tend to cluster around urban export-oriented hubs, owing to the presence of high-capacity traders, large consumer bases and traditional power dynamics. Various barriers across the wider enabling environment must be overcome to unlock the potential for aggregation to increase local fruit and vegetable delivery, including informal governance structures, cold storage gaps and underdeveloped transport infrastructures. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first critical analysis of horticultural aggregation through a consumer-sensitive lens. The policy-relevant lessons are pertinent to the equitable and sustainable development of horticultural systems both in Bihar and in similar low- and middle-income settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Rinderpest is just one of two diseases that has been eradicated globally. [•] However, little has been documented on the socio-economic impacts of control. [•] A new methodological approach was developed to measure various disease impacts. [•] Applications to Chad and India highlight benefits to rinderpest eradication. [•] Local context is a critical element of disease control and impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affordability of nutritious foods at the consumer level. However, such goals must navigate the inherent complexities of agricultural value chains, which involve multiple interactions, feedbacks and unintended consequences, including important but often surprising trade-offs between producers and consumers. Based around the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme of Digital Green in Bihar, India, we develop a system dynamics modelling framework to survey the value chain trade-offs emerging from upgrades that aim to improve the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail-oriented markets. We model the processes of horticultural production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing – searching for futures that are 'win-win-win' for: (i) the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail markets, (ii) the profits of farmers participating in aggregation, and (iii) the sustainability of the initial scheme for Digital Green as an organisation. We simulate two internal upgrades to aggregation and two upgrades to the wider enabling environment through a series of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories – designed to explore the plausible future dynamics of the three outcome dimensions relative to the baseline. We find that 'win-win-win' futures cannot be achieved by internal changes to the aggregation scheme alone, emerging under a narrow range of scenarios that boost supplies to the small retail market whilst simultaneously supporting the financial takeaways of farmers. In contrast, undesirable producer versus consumer trade-offs emerge as unintended consequences of scaling-up aggregation and the introduction of market-based cold storage. This approach furthers ongoing efforts to capture complex value chain processes, outcomes and upgrades within system dynamics modelling frameworks, before scanning the horizon of plausible external scenarios, internal dynamics and unintended trade-offs to identify 'win-win-win' futures for all. [Display omitted] • It is increasingly acknowledged that food system interventions must benefit both producers and consumers • We develop a systems tool to explore trade-offs emerging from adapting value chain interventions to become more consumer-sensitive • Futures with improved local vegetable delivery, producer profits and intervention costs are traced to their causal dynamics • 'Win-win-wins' require improved local retail demands to attract farmers away from urban markets without weakening profits • Systems-based approaches can horizon-scan plausible futures that navigate complex trade-offs in agricultural value chains [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]