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The Asian rice gall midge (Orseolia oryzae (Wood-Mason)) is a major insect pest in rice cultivation. Therefore, development of a reliable system for the timely prediction of this insect would be a valuable tool in pest management. In this study, occurring between the period from 2013–2018: (i) gall midge populations were recorded using a light trap with an incandescent bulb, and (ii) climatological parameters (air temperature, air relative humidity, rainfall and insulations) were measured at four intensive rice cropping agroecosystems that are endemic for gall midge incidence in India. In addition, weekly cumulative trapped gall midge populations and weekly averages of climatological data were subjected to count time series (Integer-valued Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic—INGARCH) and machine learning (Artificial Neural Network—ANN, and Support Vector Regression—SVR) models. The empirical results revealed that the ANN with exogenous variable (ANNX) model outperformed INGRACH with exogenous variable (INGRCHX) and SVR with exogenous variable (SVRX) models in the prediction of gall midge populations in both training and testing data sets. Moreover, the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test confirmed the significant superiority of the ANNX model over INGARCHX and SVRX models in modeling and predicting rice gall midge populations. Utilizing the presented efficient early warning system based on a robust statistical model to predict the build-up of gall midge population could greatly contribute to the design and implementation of both proactive and more sustainable site-specific pest management strategies to avoid significant rice yield losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian rice gall midge, Orseolia oryzae Wood Mason (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), is a major pest of rice in several South and South East Asian countries. The maggots feed internally on the growing tips of the tillers and transform them into tubular galls, onion leaf-like structures called `silver shoots' resulting into severe yield loss to the rice crop. We studied the mode of inheritance and allelic relationships of the resistance genes involved in resistant donor Line 9, a sib of a susceptible cultivar `Madhuri'. The segregation behaviour of F1, F2 and F3 populations of the cross between Line 9 and susceptible cultivar MW10 confirmed the presence of a single dominant gene for resistance. Tests of allelism with all the known genes giving resistance to this population indicated that Line 9 possessed a new gene which was designated Gm 9. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]