Search

This study using a high resolution (~ 25 km) regional coupled earth system model ROM (REMO-OASIS-MPIOM), addresses the future projections of heatwave characteristics (frequency, duration, and severity) and associated dynamics over India for the AMJ (April–May–June) season. The near-surface maximum temperature (Tmax) is used to identify the prominent regions of large fluctuations using rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis. The averaged heatwave characteristics simulated by ROM is compared against the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Tmax observational data for the historical period 1980–2005. The ROM simulated heatwave characteristics largely agree with observations though few deviations are also noticed. The typical synoptic features associated with the heatwave days for the identified regions show the presence of elevated geopotential height (thickness; Z) with an anomalous anticyclonic structure which forms an atmospheric blocking over each region except south east coast. The daily evolution of potential vorticity and Z suggests eastward propagation of blocks that remain persistent during heatwave days. ROM is able to simulate these features with systematic higher magnitude and minor location changes. The future projections (RCP 8.5) of heatwave characteristics show a gradual increase for different time-slices during 2020–2099. The projected frequency will be doubled, and the average duration will increase by 8–12 days per season at the end of the century. The severity will also increase by 2°–3 °C. Similarly, future dynamical features will be associated with an increase in geopotential height (thickness) in the future along with a gradual decrease in potential vorticity. The future patterns of anomalous potential vorticity indicate the presence of omega block in all-time slices with a decrease in negative magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While India is entering the period of demographic dividend, female labour participation rates remain very low. This paper aims to provide the very first labour force projections for India and its regions up to the year 2060. Projections are achieved using a discrete-time microsimulation model in which changes in population size and composition come from the interaction between demographic characteristics, educational attainment, and secular tendencies. Labour force participation rates are estimated at the individual level using personal characteristics as predictors. Results show that under constant labour force participation rates, the labour force dependency ratio (non-workers/workers) is very unlikely to attain favourable levels, which compromises the potential demographic dividend that the country could gain from its favourable age-structure. At the subnational level, the forecast yields the most favourable dependency ratio in 2060 in the regions that combine both a low-age dependency ratio and a higher participation of women. Results moreover suggest that female labour force participation is a better driver of the labour force dependency ratio than the age composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & objectives: Information on recent cancer statistics is important for planning, monitoring and evaluating cancer control activities. This article aims to provide an update on the cancer incidence estimates in India by sex, age groups and anatomical sites for the year 2022. Methods: The National Cancer Registry Programme Report 2020, reported the cancer incidence from 28 Population-Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) for the years 2012-2016. This was used as the basis to calculate cancer estimates in India. Information pertaining to the population at risk was extracted from the Census of India (2001 and 2011) for the estimation of age–sex stratified population. PBCRs were categorised into the respective State and regions of the country to understand the epidemiology of cancer. The age-specific incidence rate for each specific anatomical site of cancer was applied to the estimated population to derive the number of cancer cases in India for 2022. Results: The estimated number of incident cases of cancer in India for the year 2022 was found to be 14,61,427 (crude rate:100.4 per 100,000). In India, one in nine people are likely to develop cancer in his/her lifetime. Lung and breast cancers were the leading sites of cancer in males and females, respectively. Among the childhood (0-14 yr) cancers, lymphoid leukaemia (boys: 29.2% and girls: 24.2%) was the leading site. The incidence of cancer cases is estimated to increase by 12.8 per cent in 2025 as compared to 2020. Interpretation & conclusions: The cancer incidence is continuing to increase in India. The new estimates will be helpful in planning cancer prevention and control activities through the intervention of early detection, risk reduction and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose Of the Study: Alcohol use is the third leading risk factor for premature mortality. India is one of the largest markets for alcoholic beverages. Existing research in India is localized to specific settings lacking national generalizability. The present study aims to estimate the trends in alcohol use in India by gender and regions and to estimate the current projected number of the population involved in problematic drinking.Methods: The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) is used to estimate the age-standardized alcohol prevalence by gender and region. World Bank, 2019 population estimates are used to estimate the total population currently involved in problematic drinking, using the recent alcohol prevalence estimates.Findings: Nationally, the age-standardized prevalence of alcohol use increased between 1998-1999 and 2005-2006 and declined thereafter, being higher among men than women. Exceptions to the declines after 2005 are seen in some regions where alcohol use still increased. A 43.6% increase and 8.5% decrease in the age-standardized prevalence of problematic drinking is observed among men and women, respectively, between 2005-2006 and 2015-2016. However, problematic drinking increased in some regions for both men and women. 103.62 million men and 3.34 million women in India were involved in problematic drinking during 2019, with the highest incidences being among men aged 40-44 years and among women aged 45-49 years.Conclusion: Despite the overall progress India has made in reducing its alcohol prevalence, lowering it further remains a public health priority. There was a substantial rise in the prevalence of problematic drinking among the population, which warrants immediate action. Spreading knowledge and awareness about the negative health effects of problematic drinking among the adult population seems necessary. Strict implementation of policies would therefore not only aid in reducing the prevalence of alcohol use and problematic drinking, but, in turn, would also help to reduce the burden of alcohol-related morbidity and associated mortality in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors of this article explore the relationship between the cultural, unconscious and conscious dynamics in setting up infant observations in Delhi. The specific focus of the paper is the concept of 'Nazar', Evil eye, in India. The paper presents the experiences of a young woman observer in India, going in to observe an infant as a requirement of her psychotherapy training. The paper is an attempt to make sense of what happened five years ago in setting up the observation. It sheds light on how a cultural artefact such as 'Nazar' becomes a barrier to being able to undertake baby observation. The article also extends its understanding of what 'Nazar' can symbolise, both in the internal and the external world of both observer and observed. It goes on to explore the link between mother's ambivalence both towards her child and towards the young female observer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth highest incidence of malignancy in the world and a common cause of cancer death in women. We assessed the trends of incidence and mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) in China, England and India from 1990 to 2030., Method: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We collected the number and rate of incidence, death and DALY from 1990 to 2019 and calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Further analysis was carried out by ages and years. We also collected attributable risk factors to cervical cancer. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to forecast trends in the rate of age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and age-standardized death (ASDR) the for the next decade., Result: Globally, the incidence of cervical cancer cases increased from 335,641.56 in 1990 to 565,540.89 in 2019. In 2019, the ASIR and ASDR of cervical cancer were higher than those of India but lower than those of England. Furthermore, unsafe sex and smoking emerge as prominent risk factors for cervical cancer. Over the next decade, ASIR and ASDR are expected to decline in China and England, while India's ASIR is still on an upward trend and ASDR is on a downward trend., Conclusion: The epidemiological data of cervical cancer in these three countries reflects the influence of different stages of development and healthcare systems. Trends over the next decade suggest that China and India still face a huge burden of cervical cancer. When England has made significant progress, China and India need to take more measures to improve the prevention and control of cervical cancer., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Wu, Jiao, Yue and Wang.)

This study investigates the impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield in 19 Indian states. Cobb-Douglas production function model was used to estimate the regression coefficients of explanatory variables with sugarcane yield using state-wise panel data during 1970-2017. Thereupon, it estimates the marginal change in sugarcane yield as 1 unit increase in climatic factors using marginal impact analysis technique. It was also projected sugarcane yield across Indian states for different years (i.e. 2040s, 2060s, 2080s and 2100s). Empirical results shows that area sown and value of production per hectare land have a positive implication on sugarcane yield. Climatic factors such as annual average maximum temperature, annual actual rainfall and precipitation show a negative impact on sugarcane yield. Sugarcane yield, therefore, decreases as increase in annual average maximum temperature, and annual actual rainfall and precipitation. Results based on marginal impact analysis technique imply that sugarcane yield is expected to be declined by 1.51% due to one-unit change in climatic factors in India. Estimates demonstrate that marginal impact of climatic factors on sugarcane yield was significantly varied across Indian states due to extreme diversity in climatic factors, geographical location, irrigation facilities, natural resources, farm management practices, use of advance technologies and fertilizer in sugarcane farming, agricultural development policies and agricultural R&D. Results imply that sugarcane yield is likely to be declined by 3.84%, 4.69%, 5.55% and 6.62% in different climate change scenarios in India. Thus, it would create extensive problems for sugarcane farmers, agricultural labours, sugar industries, consumers and government in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India is accounting for almost 20 percent of total milk production in the world and 70 percent of this share is coming from small, marginal farmers and landless people of the country residing in rural areas and this shows that dairy industry has an important role in social and economic development in India. Dairy is growing with a positive rate as per capita availability has reached to 375 (gms/day) in 2017-18 from 178 (gms/day) in 1990-91. In this study, time series data (2001-02 to 2015-16) on milk production and different milching species population of Chhattisgarh have been used to find out the suitable forecasting models for milk production and population of these mulching animals of Chhattisgarh. To meet the objective of study different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been tried and among all ARIMA (0,2,0) model has been found more suitable for production of milk in India and Chhattisgarh both. Availability of milk is forecasted suitably by ARIMA (0,2,1) and ARIMA (0,1,1) for India and Chhattisgarh respectively. Similarly different ARIMA models have been fitted for population of different species animals. By this study milk production is expected to reach 219.73 MMT and 1.599 MMT by 2022-23 in India and Chhattisgarh respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (referred to as PM 2.5 ) is the most important criteria pollutant impacting human health, environment and climate. India is already recognized as pollution hotspot where PM 2.5 has been increasing in the recent past. Here we project anthropogenic PM 2.5 for the near future (till 2040) over India using multiple linear regression (MLR) approach based on RegCM projected meteorology and ECLIPSE projected emission. MISR derived PM 2.5 concentration (μg/m³) for the year 2010–2012 has been used to train the MLR model with reasonable accuracy (R > 0.9). The impact of the meteorological parameters under both RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios partially negates the impact of rising emission in future; more so in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 scenario. Air quality is projected to improve significantly with short lived climate pollutant (SLCP) 'mitigation' scenario in comparison with current legislation (CLE) 'baseline' emission scenario. Spatial analysis identifies a rapid increase in anthropogenic PM 2.5 in the eastern Indian states of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, Peninsular India, and Delhi National Capital Region. Our results identify the near future pollution hotspots that would be useful in air quality management planning for the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India is a country of 1.32 billion. The World Health Organization recommends, one doctor to serve 1,000 people, across all levels of care. This implies, we need a total of 1.2 million doctors to serve our population. India plans to establish 200 new medical colleges in the next 10 years to meet a projected shortage of 600,000 doctors. However, the information available on allopathic doctors have largely been fragmented and unreliable. A comprehensive search was undertaken to find out the estimates, norms and projections for allopathic doctors provided by the various health committees and experts in India. The Bhore, Sokhey & Mudaliar Committees, Five-year Planning Commission Reports, MCI Vision 2015 document and High-Level Expert Group (HLEG) report on Universal Health Coverage in have yielded estimates, norms and projections for allopathic doctors. The targeted doctor population ratio of 1:1000 could be achieved by 2027 as per HLEG and by 2031 as per MCI Vision 2015. This study emphasizes the estimates and norms of doctors as reported by the Government and allied agencies need strengthening for comprehensiveness and reliability to report information on the allopathic doctors. An important recommendation for the state professional councils is to maintain a live register of health workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The redbanded stink bug, Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood, 1837), is a highly destructive soybean pest native to the Neotropical Region. In the past 60 yr, P. guildinii has been observed to expand its distribution in North and South America, causing significant soybean yield losses. In order to predict the future distribution direction of P. guildinii and create an effective pest control strategy, we projected the potential global distribution of P. guildinii using 2 different emission scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 126 and 585, and 3 Earth system models, with the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt). Then, the predicted distribution areas of P. guildinii were jointly analyzed with the main soybean-producing areas to assess the impact for different soybean region. Our results showed that temperature is the main environmental factor limiting the distribution of P. guildinii. Under present climate conditions, all continents except Antarctica have suitable habitat for P. guildinii. These suitable habitats overlap with approximately 45.11% of the total global cultivated soybean areas. Moreover, P. guildinii was predicted to expand its range in the future, particularly into higher latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. Countries, in particular the United States, where soybean is widely available, would face a management challenge under global warming. In addition, China and India are also high-risk countries that may be invaded and should take strict quarantine measures. The maps of projected distribution produced in this study may prove useful in the future management of P. guildinii and the containment of its disruptive effects., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The changing scenario of consumption and production of pulses will have significant influence on the demand-supply prospects of pulses in India. The country as whole, production of redgram had increased marginally (0.45%) during 1980-2012(Overall study period), though there is positive and significant growth in production (2.86%) during 1980-90 (Period-I), mainly due to lower growth during 1991-2012(period-II). The significant growth in production (1.39%) and productivity (1.04%) of bengalgram in the entire period except area (0.35%) was observed. However, growth in greengram production (1.14%) and productivity (1.21%) was found almost similar. In case of blackgram, positive growth rate in area, productivity and production in both the periods have ultimately resulted higher growth rates in the overall period. The growth in total pulses production indicated that growth in area (-0.10%) was negative while it was positive both in production (1.49%) and productivity (1.59%) during period-I. Similar pattern of growth was observed during period-II and in the overall study period. The estimated demand for pulses were 183.62 lakh tonnes over supply of 148.66 lakh tonnes indicating deficit of 34.96 lakh tonnes during 2001-2011. Further, demand for pulses expected to reach 225.36 and 255.16 lakh tonnes in the year 2020 and 2030 respectively. Whereas, supply of pulses will reach 218.50 and 237.00 lakh tonnes in the same period indicating narrow gap between demand and supply in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global compilations and regional studies, indicative of the unsustainable extraction and subsequent unremittingly depleting groundwater (GW) in India, either provide bulk estimates or are confined to the river basins and therefore conceal inferences from a nationwide policymaking perspective. Here, we provide the state-wise past (2000-2020) and future (2030-2050) assessment of dwindling groundwater in India utilizing in-situ groundwater levels (GWL) from 54,112 wells, remote sensing products, and hydrological simulations. By employing three machine learning methods, we show a decline in GWL of over 80% in North India with a notable shift towards the eastern state of Uttar Pradesh and a cumulative groundwater loss (169.96 ± 19.67 km 3 ) equivalent to the water storage capacity of the world's biggest dam (Kariba Dam, Zimbabwe). Its likely contribution to sea-level rise (0.47 ± 0.06 mm) is about 64% of that from annual global glacier melt. Our results typically contrast the GW recovery paradox in South India (e.g., a declining trend of -84.48 ± 38.81 mm/a (p < 0.05) in Andhra Pradesh during 2000-2020), reveal high seasonal variability (e.g., up to ~6 m in Maharashtra), and illustrate the skewed effect of survivor bias in the traditional assessments. We infer the significant impact of underlying hydrogeology and the implementation of water-related policies and projects on the GWL dynamic and variability in the region. Projected GWL reveals a likely water scarcity situation for about 2.8 million km 2 area and one billion residents of the country up to 2050. Our observation-based analysis offers insights into the state-level monthly GW dynamics, which is critical for efficient interstate resource allocation, development plans, and policy interventions with broad methodological implications for the water-scarce countries., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The objective of the study is to assess the trend of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIRs) of cervical cancer, standardised median age at diagnosis, and projection of cervical cancer incidence rate and the number of new cases up to 2030. The projections help in making strategies for resource allocation to circumvent the future burden., Methods: The data were extracted from the Delhi population-based cancer registry from 1990 to 2014. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to ASIRs to assess the trend. The natural cubic splines age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted to project the incidence rate and incidence cases. The trend of standardised median age at diagnosis and percentage of cervical cancer to total women cancer was also assessed using regression analysis. Projections of new cases are decomposed into three components aging, the structure of the population, and age-specific incidence rate., Results: The age-standardised incidence rate of cervical cancer decreased with an annual decline at a rate of 2.98% (95% CI -3.48 to -2.47) from 1990 to 2014. The standardised median age at diagnosis showed an upward trend with an average annual increase of 0.167 per year and the median age increased by 4.18 years during 25-years period, this change was due to the shifting of the peak from 40-44 in 1990 to 60-64 in 2014. The APC model revealed ASIRs would decline by 43.8% in 2030 compared to average ASIRs 2010-2014, albeit a net 12% increase in the incidence cases. An increase in incidence cases is primarily attributed to the aging of the population and population  growth by 38.87% and 33.84% respectively.  The trend analysis of  cervical cancer ASIRs in pre (< 50 years) and post menopause (≥ 50 years) showed a decreasing trend. However, the ratio of cervical to total women increased over time from 1:1 in 1990 to 2:3 in 2014., Conclusion: The declining trend in ASIRs was observed in Delhi and will continue to decrease up to 2030.  The burden of the number of new cases of cervical cancer showed an upward trend primarily due to the aging of the population and shifting of population structure. To counter this big challenge a cost-effective vaccination for vulnerable populations, community-based screening programs, and awareness about cervical cancer prevention might help in eliminating this preventable cancer.

This paper examines recent trends in sex ratio at birth in all the major states of India, based on three rounds of the National Family Health Survey. It finds evidence of an increase in the ratio, particularly at the second-order birth among women having a first daughter in many states in the northwestern region of the country. Also, there are signs of daughter aversion emerging in Odisha, an eastern state. Based on parity progression ratios and the trend in sex selection, an attempt is made to estimate the peak of sex ratio at birth in India. With moderate intensification in sex selection in the northwestern region, sex ratio at birth is expected to reach a peak of 117–119 males per 100 females around the period 2021–2026. If, in addition, sex selection spreads further in the southeastern region, the sex ratio at birth in India could even increase to a level of 124. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Indian seas experienced severe warming in 1998 and 2002 that resulted in large-scale bleaching and mortality of corals. Anticipating increased warming in future, we made an attempt to project coral vulnerability in the Andaman, Nicobar, Lakshadweep, the Gulf of Mannar and the Gulf of Kachchh regions for the 21st century. To project the number of bleaching events, the thermal threshold for bleaching, degree heating month (DHM) accumulations of the sea surface temperature (SST) hotspot anomalies, and the predicted increase in SST during this century were considered. The decadal DHM values are expected to gradually increase in all the five regions in the early decades of this century, but abruptly increase after the year 2050. The results indicate that if there is no increase in thermal tolerance capacity, bleaching would become an annual or biannual event for almost all reef regions along the Indian coast in the next 30-50 years. Reef building corals may lose dominance between 2030 and 2040 in the Lakshadweep region and between 2050 and 2070 in the other four regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Cancer is second largest non-communicable disease and it has a sizable contribution in the total number of deaths. It is important for the public health professionals to understand the dynamics of cancer incidence for future strategies. Therefore, this paper is attempted with the objective of projecting number of cancer incidence for five cities namely, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal and Mumbai and to estimate the cancer mortality rate for all India for the year 2008. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data were used from the Indian Council of Medical Research's publication of Population-Based Cancer Registry for the year 1999-2000. The population was calculated from the Census reports of 1991 and 2001. Causes-specifi c mortality report by the Central Bureau of Health Intelligence was used for estimating cancer mortality for all India. The age-specific rate method is utilized to project number of cancer incidence for the cities of Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal and Mumbai and to estimate cancer mortality in 2000 for all India. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: About 26.6% increase is expected in the registered number of cancer cases in these five cities and 52.68% increase is projected for Delhi which would mean highest number of cases in Delhi among these five cities within a span of eight years. And in Mumbai it is expected to have a marginal decline in the number of cases for the year 2008 (around -3.25%). The age adjusted analysis indicates that Mumbai is experiencing the higher incidence rate among the five cities studied herein. It is estimated about 50% cancer mortality is reported from the age group 55 and above years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heatwave is a disastrous hazard having significant impacts on health and society. This study analyses the heatwave hazards and risk for India's current and future scenarios using socioeconomic vulnerability and temperature datasets during the summer (April–June) season. The Census of India (CoI) 2011 datasets were considered to assess current vulnerability and projected from the SocioEconomic Data And Application Center (SEDAC) population at Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4 for future vulnerability. Whereas IMD temperature data used for hazard assessment for the present scenario (1958–2005) while projected temperature data from regional earth system model REMO-OASIS-MPIOM (ROM) were used for the future (2006–2099) scenario. The study exhibited the most hazardous, vulnerable, and risk-prone regions identified as the south-eastern coast and Indo-Gangetic plains and some populous districts with metropolitan regions (Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata) under the current scenario. The coupled model ROM has efficiently captured the critical districts with higher and lower risk, showing its future projection capability. The study highlighted that the heatwave hazard-risk would significantly worsen in future scenarios in all districts under enhanced global warming and largely affecting the districts in the eastern and middle Indo-Gangetic plains and Malabar region. The present study will provide sufficient insights into designing mitigation strategies and future adaptive planning for the heatwave risk, which is one of the targets under Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Goal 13: Climate Action). • The present and future vulnerability and risk are assessed over India using a regional earth system model ROM. • The ROM efficiently captured the high and low heatwave risk districts of India. • Southern coastal regions and Indo-Gangetic plains are at higher risk during the baseline period 1980–2005. • The heatwave risk will exacerbate in all districts of India with the highest increment over Indo-Gangetic plains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive global inventory of past, present, and future steroid emissions was firstly developed based on the global 5' × 5' grids relevant data available. From 1970 to 2070, the growth rate of the annual global steroid emission was relatively stable around 10%. At present (in 2015), the global steroid emissions was 18,270 t, with 17% contributed by humans. Almost one-third of total animal emissions have been occurring in India and Brazil. India also had the highest value of human steroid emissions. Regions with highest steroid emissions were concentrated between 10° ~ 35° N and 70° ~ 90° E. The increase of sewage treatment rates can effectively reduce the total quantity of steroids entering the environment, especially for some developing countries. But the "technology bonus" from sewage treatment process will be exhausted until to 2030. Meanwhile, global surface water pollution was predicted based on steroid emissions into water compartment and on the digital river network with annual river discharge. The modelling results show that steroids are widely distributed across the globe, with concentrations mostly below 100 ng/L. However, if no proper treatment measures for animal excretions, in another 100 years, the range of the surface water contaminated by steroids will increase by 1.2 times. The Nile River resulted as the most polluted among the eight world's longest and famous rivers during the whole period investigated. Various measured concentrations worldwide validated our modelling result. The global steroid emission inventory and surface water pollution from past to the future will stand as an important data and knowledge base for the management of pollution from different types of steroids at global and regional level., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: The projection studies are imperative to satisfy demands for health care systems and proper response to the public health problems such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)., Methods: To accomplish this, we established an illness-death model based on available data to project the future prevalence of IBD in Asia, Iran in particular, separately from 2017 to 2035. We applied two deterministic and stochastic approaches., Results: In 2035, as compared to 2020, we expected a 2.5-fold rise in prevalence for Iran with 69 thousand cases, a 2.3-fold increment for North Africa and the Middle East with 220 thousand cases, quadrupling of the prevalence for India with 2.2 million cases, a 1.5-fold increase for East Asia region with 4.5 million cases, and a 1.6-fold elevation in prevalence for high-income Asia-Pacific and Southeast Asia regions with 183 and 199 thousand cases respectively., Conclusions: Our results showed an emerging epidemic for the prevalence of IBD in Asia regions and/or countries. Hence, we suggest the need for immediate action to control this increasing trend in Asia and Iran. However, we were virtually unable to use information about age groups, gender, and other factors influencing the evolution of IBD in our model due to lack of access to reliable data.

Background: On March 9, 2020, the first COVID-19 case was reported in Jodhpur, Rajasthan, in the northwestern part of India. Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 at a local level is becoming increasingly important to guide measures to control the pandemic., Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the serial interval and basic reproduction number (R 0 ) to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak at a district level. We used standard mathematical modeling approaches to assess the utility of these factors in determining the effectiveness of COVID-19 responses and projecting the size of the epidemic., Methods: Contact tracing of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 was performed to obtain the serial intervals. The median and 95th percentile values of the SARS-CoV-2 serial interval were obtained from the best fits with the weibull, log-normal, log-logistic, gamma, and generalized gamma distributions. Aggregate and instantaneous R 0 values were derived with different methods using the EarlyR and EpiEstim packages in R software., Results: The median and 95th percentile values of the serial interval were 5.23 days (95% CI 4.72-5.79) and 13.20 days (95% CI 10.90-18.18), respectively. R 0 during the first 30 days of the outbreak was 1.62 (95% CI 1.07-2.17), which subsequently decreased to 1.15 (95% CI 1.09-1.21). The peak instantaneous R 0 values obtained using a Poisson process developed by Jombert et al were 6.53 (95% CI 2.12-13.38) and 3.43 (95% CI 1.71-5.74) for sliding time windows of 7 and 14 days, respectively. The peak R 0 values obtained using the method by Wallinga and Teunis were 2.96 (95% CI 2.52-3.36) and 2.92 (95% CI 2.65-3.22) for sliding time windows of 7 and 14 days, respectively. R 0 values of 1.21 (95% CI 1.09-1.34) and 1.12 (95% CI 1.03-1.21) for the 7- and 14-day sliding time windows, respectively, were obtained on July 6, 2020, using method by Jombert et al. Using the method by Wallinga and Teunis, values of 0.32 (95% CI 0.27-0.36) and 0.61 (95% CI 0.58-0.63) were obtained for the 7- and 14-day sliding time windows, respectively. The projection of cases over the next month was 2131 (95% CI 1799-2462). Reductions of transmission by 25% and 50% corresponding to reasonable and aggressive control measures could lead to 58.7% and 84.0% reductions in epidemic size, respectively., Conclusions: The projected transmission reductions indicate that strengthening control measures could lead to proportionate reductions of the size of the COVID-19 epidemic. Time-dependent instantaneous R 0 estimation based on the process by Jombart et al was found to be better suited for guiding COVID-19 response at the district level than overall R 0 or instantaneous R 0 estimation by the Wallinga and Teunis method. A data-driven approach at the local level is proposed to be useful in guiding public health strategy and surge capacity planning., (©Suman Saurabh, Mahendra Kumar Verma, Vaishali Gautam, Nitesh Kumar, Akhil Dhanesh Goel, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sanjeev Misra. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 15.10.2020.)

Introduction: Tobacco products are the major contributors for various cancers and other diseases. In India, tobacco-related cancers (TRCs) contribute nearly half of the total cancers in males and one-fifth in females., Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate 25-year trends and projection of TRCs for 2018-2022., Methods: Joinpoint analysis was performed to assess the trends of TRCs on world age-adjusted rates. Age-period-cohort model with power link function was performed to project the future incidence burden of TRCs in urban Delhi., Results: During the 25 years, a total of 67,129 TRCs (53,125 males and 14,004 females) were registered which was 25.4% of total cancer cases registered. Males contributed 39.1% and females 10.8% of total cases. In males, TRCs declined significantly from 1988 to 2003 with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.91% and thereafter increasing trend was observed with EAPC = 3.42%, while in females, the EAPC values were 2.2% and 3.54% respectively for the same period. The total burden of TRCs will be doubled in 2018-2022 with around 46% change due to cancer risk and around 54% due to population age and size in both the genders. The average annual count in males will be 7310 in 2018-2022 as compared to 3571 in 2008-2012 while in females this count will be increased to 2066 from 955 based on recent slope., Conclusion: The incidence of TRCs is increasing due to increase in population age, size, and factors other than population. TRCs are the preventable cancers, and load of these cancers can be controlled with strictly adhering the policy and acts., Competing Interests: None