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Since the 1970s, the inverse relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened considerably. The cause for this breakdown is shown to be most likely the strengthening and poleward shift of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. These changes have led to the recent development of a significant correlation between wintertime western European surface air temperatures and the ensuing monsoon rainfall. This western Europe winter signal extended eastward over most of northern Eurasia and remained evident in spring, such that the effect of the resulting meridional temperature contrast was able to disrupt the influence of ENSO on the monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon in modern (0 kyr) and mid-Holocene (6 kyr) climates are investigated by contrasting simulations with and without dynamic vegetation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. According to a dynamic index of South Asian summer monsoon, it has been found that the strengths of interannual and interdecadal westerly wind tend not to be affected by the dynamic vegetation over South Asia in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. However, based on a dynamic index of western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, the strengths of tropical westerly wind and south–north cross-equatorial transport are weakened over the tropical western Pacific in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests the impact of dynamic vegetation is more obvious for the WNP monsoon than for the South Asian monsoon. Also, it implies the impact of dynamic vegetation on the interannual and interdecadal circulations is distinctly regional. Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis shows that the impact of dynamic vegetation can remodel the leading correlation mode (SVD1) between precipitation and surface temperature. All of the interannual and interdecadal precipitation patterns with and without the impact of dynamic vegetation are associated with positive anomalies over India and southeastern China. However, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (keep) the positive interannual temperature anomalies of SVD1 over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce the anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and WNP for 6 kyr. Furthermore, the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies always dominate the tropics for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests La Niña-like SST anomalies are the important mechanism to induce the above-mentioned precipitation pattern no matter whether for 0 kyr or for 6 kyr. For the interdecadal surface temperature pattern of SVD1, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (reduce) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce (keep) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 6 kyr. Also, all of the above implies the impact of dynamic vegetation is a mechanism to induce the long-term change of leading interannual and interdecadal surface temperature pattern over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and/or WNP. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]