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As anthropogenic influences push ecosystems past tipping points and into new regimes, complex management decisions are complicated by rapid ecosystem changes that may be difficult to reverse. For managers who grapple with how to manage ecosystems under novel conditions and heightened uncertainty, advancing our understanding of regime shifts is paramount. As part of an ecological resilience assessment, researchers and managers have collaborated to identify alternate regimes and build an understanding of the thresholds and factors that govern regime shifts in the Upper Mississippi River System. To describe the management implications of our assessment, we integrate our findings with the recently developed resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework that explicitly acknowledges ecosystem regime change and outlines management approaches of resisting change, accepting change, or directing change. More specifically, we developed guidance for using knowledge of desirability of current conditions, distance to thresholds, and general resilience (that is, an ecosystem's capacity to cope with uncertain disturbances) to navigate the RAD framework. We applied this guidance to outline strategies that resist, accept, or direct change in the context of management of aquatic vegetation, floodplain vegetation, and fish communities across nearly 2000 river kilometers. We provide a case study for how knowledge of ecological dynamics can aid in assessing which management approach(es) are likely to be most ecologically feasible in a changing world. Continued learning from management decisions will be critical to advance our understanding of how ecosystems respond and inform the management of ecosystems for desirable and resilient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix have infested and caused largescale ecological and economic damage to the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers. We compiled demographic data from 42,995 fish from 23 pools in the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers, which universities and management agencies previously collected as part of management, monitoring, and research activities. We used this data set to test whether demographic rates (length-weight relations including body condition, mortality, growth curves, and female maturity curves) varied among subpopulations across a gradient of invasion status. We found that length-weight relations and growth curves varied among subpopulations, whereas maturity curves did not. Our findings demonstrated spatial variability in demographic rates for Bighead and Silver carp across a broad geographic area in relation to invasion status and river conditions. Herein, we provide general subpopulation management options and present different hypotheses to explain the observed spatial variability in demographic rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fish and habitat were sampled by state agencies at 48 stations throughout the Cache River watershed, Illinois between 1992 and 2009. Two distinct fish assemblages were identified, one primarily found in the lower mainstem Cache River and a second found throughout tributaries and the upper mainstem Cache River. Using a canonical correspondence analysis, the distribution of fish species was largely explained by substrate, land use, drainage area and local habitat features. Creek chub, central stoneroller, fringed darter and fantail darter are species found to be positively associated with gravel substrate and forest. In contrast, black buffalo, gizzard shad, smallmouth buffalo, freshwater drum and bigmouth buffalo were positively associated with drainage area, silt, channel width and row crops. Cobble appears to be rare habitat associated with fringed darter, freckled madtom and fantail darter. Results suggest that substrate, land use and local habitat features influence fish assemblages within the Cache River watershed. This information contributes to both understanding aquatic community structure in a highly altered yet diverse watershed as well as management activities within the Cache River watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regime shifts - persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem - are well-documented for some ecosystems and have informed research and management of these ecosystems. In floodplain-river ecosystems, there is growing interest from restoration practitioners in ecological resilience, yet regime shifts remain poorly understood in these ecosystems. To understand how regime shifts may apply to floodplain-river ecosystems, we synthesize our understanding of ecosystem dynamics using an alternate regimes conceptual framework. We present three plausible sets of alternate regimes relevant to natural resource management interests within the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois River. These alternate regimes include: 1) a clear water and abundant vegetation regime vs. a turbid water and sparse vegetation regime in lentic, off-channel areas, 2) a diverse native fish community regime vs. an invasive-dominated fish community regime, and 3) a regime characterized by a diverse and dynamic mosaic of floodplain vegetation types vs. one characterized as a persistent invasive wet meadow monoculture. For each set of potential alternate regimes, we review available literature to synthesize known or hypothesized feedback mechanisms that reinforce regimes, controlling variables that drive regime transitions, and current restoration pathways. Our conceptual models provide preliminary support for the existence of alternate regimes in floodplain-river ecosystems. Quantitatively testing hypotheses contained within the conceptual model are important next steps in evaluating the model. Ultimately, the synthesis and evaluation of alternate regimes can inform the utility of resilience concepts in restoration and management on the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois River and improve our understanding of ecosystem dynamics in other large, heavily managed floodplain-river ecosystems. • Alternate regime concepts have rarely been applied to river ecosystems. • We assess three potential sets of alternate regimes for a large river. • Long-term changes in the Upper Mississippi River are consistent with regime shifts. • Altered disturbance dynamics and invasive species coincide with observed changes. • Conceptual models of alternate regimes provide insights into river ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]