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• Coupled effects of thinning and weather on pine regeneration not well understood. • Seedling density, survival and growth were surveyed in a forest thinning experiment. • Thinning had a strong positive effect on seedling establishment and survival. • The positive effect of stand management was stronger in drier and warmer conditions. • Thinning may be a key management strategy for forest adaptation to climate change. There is growing concern that changing climate and disturbance regimes are and will result in widespread forest regeneration failure, and thus, there is an increasing need for developing management and adaptation strategies to promote regeneration under climate change. Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster), an ecologically and economically relevant tree species inside and outside its natural range, will likely face such difficulties as drought is the main cause of seedling mortality in this species. Understanding the interactions between silviculture and climate conditions is therefore crucial to inform sound adaptive forest management. However, the evidence on how forest thinning may contribute to enhanced regeneration remains divided and not fully understood, especially in the context of climate change. Hence, the general goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of thinning as a forest management strategy to promote the natural regeneration of P. pinaster stands in Mediterranean areas, and to understand how climatic, edaphic and topographic factors influence the effectiveness of this silvicultural practice. This was done by comparing 13 pairs of thinned and control plots along a thinning intensity gradient (23–69 % in stand basal area) in northeastern Iberian Peninsula and by measuring early-stage regeneration dynamics, namely the density, survival and growth of seedlings for 5 consecutive years. Thinning had a strong positive effect on the establishment and survival of P. pinaster seedlings as well as a weak positive effect on early primary and secondary growth. Not only was the number of seedlings and survival in thinned plots considerably higher than in control plots (15.0 ± 2.5 vs 1.5 ± 0.5 seedlings per plot; 23 ± 4 % vs 0.7 ± 0.3 % survival) but both seedling density and survival increased with increasing thinning intensity (3-fold and 5-fold, respectively), which matches the light-demanding nature of this species. Such a positive effect of thinning was further modulated by climatic and soil conditions. Overall, the advantage conferred by thinning to seedling establishment and survival was stronger under drier and warmer conditions, which suggests that thinning is particularly beneficial in alleviating competition in water-limited forest ecosystems. Considering that the Mediterranean region is predicted to become warmer and drier under global warming, our findings indicate that thinning will likely become an increasingly important management strategy to ensure the natural regeneration, adaptation and resilience of pine forests in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]