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Background: The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables. Results: The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa. Conclusions: We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Aim: As parapatric distributions are traditionally studied by pairs of species, this study aims to evaluate the causes of the maintenance of parapatry, specifically to assess whether the case of the three viper species present in the Iberian Peninsula is mainly caused by environmental conditions, historical events, interspecific competition among them, or a combination of these factors. Location: The Iberian Peninsula. Taxon: Vipera aspis, V. latastei and V. seoanei.. Methods: We applied the concept of favourability of occurrence to produce commensurate distribution units unaffected by the prevalence of different species in the Iberian Peninsula. We compared the favourability of each species individually with the favourability of occurrence of more than one species co‐occurring in their overlapping ranges, and identified the areas in which sympatric coexistence, environmental segregation and competitive exclusion are predicted to occur. Results: The main driver of the parapatric pattern was competitive exclusion, which was mediated by gradual changes in the environmental conditions favouring each species. The para‐Mediterranean V. aspis presented fragmented favourable areas outside its range that seemed to be unoccupied due to competitive exclusion by the other vipers. The Mediterranean V. latastei appeared to be limited by competition with the other viper species and by the environment in north‐western Iberia. V. seoanei prevented the other two species becoming established in the north‐western quarter of the Iberian Peninsula due to its better adaption to the humid conditions in this region. Some areas of sustainable coexistence were detected, mainly in the upper reaches of the River Ebro. Main conclusions: Each species is better adapted to particular conditions. However, the existence of ecotones forces them to occur sympatrically and compete for resources. The parapatric pattern is a result of the evolutionary history of the species and of strong competitive interactions between them, which form 'competitive‐exclusion barriers'. However, these barriers are environmentally dependent, so changes in the environment could rapidly affect the limits of the species distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For several decades, there have been changes in the distance of bird migration. The Eurasian Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus is a Trans-Saharan migratory species, which, as recent records suggest, is increasingly wintering in the Iberian Peninsula. This study investigated the strength of the influence of climate on the wintering of this insectivorous species in the Iberian Peninsula, and also used geospatial modelling to identify the most favourable areas. The model was constructed to identify the most relevant explanatory factors of this distribution and it was assessed by applying calibration and discrimination criteria, and the influence of each factor was analysed using variation partitioning. Theminimum winter temperature is themost relevant factor affecting sites suitable for the wintering of this species in Europe. The best areas are located in the southern and eastern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula and in some locations on the northern Atlantic coast of Spain. Spatial trends analysis corroborated the orientation of the flight paths of the species from their breeding areas to their wintering areas. To pography refined the model in that it is associated with habitat selection at a fine-scale. As the case of the Eurasian Reed Warbler is not unique, the results show the role of the Iberian Peninsula as a new wintering site for species usually wintering in the Sub-Saharan region, modifying their wintering strategy from Trans-Saharan to Pre-Saharanmigrants, and whether the recent increase in temperature is the main cause. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The dynamic analysis of geographical distribution is relevant to identify the processes that underlie any changes of geographical ranges. This is an essential element of both biogeography and conservation biology. Fuzzy logic, in particular the fuzzy concept of favourability for species occurrence, helps to perform a dynamic interpretation of the internal complexity of species ranges. We modelled the distributions of the 222 Iberian butterflies using favourability functions and 92 environmental variables (spatial, climatic, topographic, geological and indicators of human activity). We obtained a significant environmental favourability model for each butterfly. We identified the potential sources and sinks in the distribution area of each butterfly species using their respective favourability and presence–absence maps, considering as sources only those areas with high favourability where the butterfly is present, and sinks only those areas with low favourability where the butterfly is present too. The source areas for the Iberian butterflies are concentrated in the north of the peninsula, mainly in the mountain ranges (Cantabrian Range, Pyrenees and Central Range). Sink areas are more dispersed all around the peninsula. We found a concentration of sink locations in eastern Iberia (Alicante and Murcia provinces) and in the southwestern area (Doñana National Park). This may be helpful when implementing conservation measures, by providing a biogeographical dynamic interpretation of the roles of different parts of the distribution range of the species. Preserving the processes that link sources with sinks is critical for maintaining or improving the sustainability of populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim A striking case of mitochondrial DNA (mt DNA) introgression occurs in the Iberian Peninsula: the mt DNA of Lepus timidus, a species that inhabited this territory during the Last Glacial Maximum ( LGM), is almost fixed in the Iberian range of Lepus europaeus, is very frequent in the northern half of Iberia within Lepus granatensis, and is fixed in Lepus castroviejoi. Here, we used a transdisciplinary approach to understand the ecological drivers of the distribution of this introgressed mt DNA in the Iberian hare species. Location Europe, with an emphasis on the Iberian Peninsula. Methods First, we modelled the climatic niche of L. timidus to predict the favourability for the species during the LGM. Second, we gathered data regarding L. timidus mt DNA introgression for 1137 individuals (139 populations) from the Iberian Peninsula. We tested whether the climatic favourability for L. timidus during the LGM reflects the frequency of the introgressed mt DNA in the carrier hare populations. Results The climatic favourability for the LGM is positively related to the presence of individuals with L. timidus mt DNA, and discriminates better than by chance between individuals with and without this lineage. At the population level, the favourability values relate to the observed frequencies of mt DNA introgression and discriminate between populations with and without L. timidus mt DNA. Main conclusions The results suggest that the geographical distribution of L. timidus mt DNA introgression is linked to L. timidus distribution in Iberia during the LGM. Our study helps to improve our understanding of the role of climate in the reticulated evolutionary history of hares, and is a first step towards understanding the ecological impact of mt DNA introgression on Iberian hares. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Placobdella costata is a leech specific to freshwater turtle Emys orbicularis. Both genera are native to North America and have co-evolved and undergone dispersion through the Palearctic. The leech is present throughout the Mediterranean area, always associated with E. orbicularis. Their only known presence in the Iberian Peninsula is in the north and center of the peninsula. Here we present the first description of the leech in southern Spain (Andalusia) in association with a small fragmented population of fresh-water turtles in which E. orbicularis and Mauremys leprosa coexist. Unusually, the leech was found attached to the carapace of a male M. leprosa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some species are very difficult to observe in the wild, and some of these present an apparently incongruent distribution, as is the case of the spur-thighed tortoise Testudo graeca in the southern Iberian Peninsula. This species has a discontinuous distribution with two main reproductive areas: one in the contiguous provinces of Almeria and Murcia, and the other in Huelva province. Both populations are thought to maintain reproductive isolation. However, we present new records obtained from two areas (the provinces of Malaga and Cadiz) which are outside their previously known range. Malaga province and Cadiz province are located between the two traditional reproductive areas. The new records were based on 16 interviews with shepherds as well as information provided by three naturalists. The aim of this work was to analyze the spatial distribution of areas favourable to the spur-thighed tortoise in the southern Iberian Peninsula, using different models with the same group of variables but with a different number of records: known records, new records and a combination of them. We obtained a distribution model for the species in Andalusia consistent with all observations, which was related to climatic stability, climatic disturbances, and spatial situation. This model presented three main favourable areas: two are coincident with the two known nuclei, and the other is situated in the southern part of the region, in the contiguous provinces of Cadiz and Malaga. We conclude that it is important to consider all the observations in the distribution models because records outside the traditional reproductive areas can include other environmental characteristics appropriate for the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Iberian wild goat (Capra pyrenaica), an endemic species to the Iberian Peninsula, was represented in the past by four subspecies. Currently, the conservation status of the recognized subspecies –C. p. hispanica and C. p. victoriae – is quite different, being the former broadly distributed while the latter inhabits fewer and smaller areas. In this global context, our specific aims were to assess the biogeographical relationships, similarities and differences between the Iberian wild goat subspecies, and to evaluate their conservation status from a biogeographical perspective. We modelled the ecogeographical favourability for each subspecies, and also for the whole species, and we comparatively analyzed the spatial relationships among models in order to detect differential biogeographical patterns. Our results showed a differential pattern for each Iberian wild goat subspecies, and thus each one should be independently considered when designing management strategies. The distribution of C. p. victoriae was closely related to climatic conditions, thus it is highly sensitive to variations in climatic characteristics. Finally, from the perspective of metapopulation theory, and according to the geographical structure of their favourable areas, C. p. victoriae is at higher risk than C. p. hispanica. We discuss the implications of our results for species/subspecies conservation, and highlight the importance of conservation biogeography. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus ), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra ), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence-absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To relate the recent Iberian lynx decline to changes in the distribution of the European rabbit after the haemorrhagic disease outbreak of 1989. As Iberian rabbits evolved in two geographically separated lineages, being the recent lynx range practically restricted to the southwestern lineage, we also test if differential range dynamics exists for these lineages, with the consequent implications for lynx conservation and reintroduction planning. Location The Iberian Peninsula. Methods We modelled environmental favourability for the lynx based on its distribution before 1989, and for the rabbit using distribution data collected primarily after 1989, and validated them using independent abundance data. We compared both models and combined them in a lynx occurrence forecast. We correlated the prevalence of southwestern rabbit lineage with the environmental favourability for the rabbit. Results The environmental lynx model correlated with past lynx abundance data, but did not reflect its recent strong range contraction. The rabbit model correlated with recent rabbit abundance, but was negatively correlated with the environmental model for the lynx. The combination of both models forecasted lynx occurrence in a few separated nuclei, which encompass all recent lynx records. The prevalence of rabbit's southwestern lineage correlated negatively with favourability for the rabbit. Main conclusions The region to which the lynx became confined before 1989 is currently less favourable for rabbits, whereas more favourable areas remain outside lynx reach. This differential favourability correlates with rabbit phylogeographical structure, suggesting that the southwestern lineage is facing more unfavourable conditions or is less resilient to recent diseases. The loss of concordance between lynx distribution and the whole rabbit phylogeographical structure has prevented lynx persistence in northeastern rabbit lineage areas, which should be considered in lynx reintroduction planning. Similar conservation problems could affect other ecologically interacting species whose distributions’ overlapping has sharply diminished. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this quantitative biogeographical analysis is to identify the existence of specific groups of pteridophytes with significantly similar distribution patterns (chorotypes) in the Iberian Peninsula, as well as to infer the environmental factors that may explain such groupings. We have applied a classification method to the pteridophyte species and have then tested the significance of the resulting groups. This allows the distinction of groups of species that occur together more frequently than expected at random from those which are just a product of the cluster analysis. The majority of the 113 pteridophyte species in the Iberian Peninsula are not distributed independently from each other, but eighteen chorotypes exist that are common to various species and three chorotypes that consist of one species each. Five species are distributed independently of the other species, and so their distribution areas overlap and segregate from the others at random. With the aim of finding a relation between the chorotypes identified and the processes that determine them, we investigated the possible incidence of certain environmental factors on the chorotype distributions by means of logistic regression. Factors that appear most frequently as possible causes of the distribution of the chorotypes are the water availability, climatic stress, availability of environmental energy, and disturbances caused by floods.. El objetivo de este análisis biogeográfico cuantitativo es identificar la posible existencia de grupos de especies de pteridófitos con patrones de distribución significantivamente similares (corotipos) en la Peninsula Ibérica, así como analizar los factores ambientales que explican tales grupos. Hemos aplicado un método de clasificatión biogeográfica de especies y después hemos comprobado la significación de los grupos resultantes. Esto nos ha permitido distinguir los grupos de especies que se asocian con más frecuencia de lo esperado por azar de aquellos grupos que se deben únicamente al análisis de agrupación. La mayoría de las 113 especies de pteridófitos en la Península Ibérica no se distribuyen independientemente unas de otras, sino que existen 18 corotipos que son comunes a varias especies y tres que están formados por una sola especie. Cinco especies se distribuyen independientemente de las restantes, y por tanto, sus áreas de distribución se solapan y se segregan con las demás al azar. Con objeto de encontrar una relación entre los corotipos identificados en el presente trabajo y los procesos que los determinan, investigamos por medio de regresiones logísticas la posible incidencia de ciertos factores ambientales sobre las distribuciones de los corotipos. Los factores que han aparecido más frecuentemente como posibles causas de las distribuciones de los corotipos son la disponibilidad de agua, el estrés climático, la energía ambiental disponible y los disturbios causados por las inundaciones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: We tested the usefulness of new analytical tools such as fuzzy set theory to reveal the hidden internal complexity of the geographic distribution of species. Fuzzy set theory replaces the crisp notion of presence/absence of a species, typical of species distribution atlases, with the fuzzy notion of favorability for the species occurrence. Species distribution ranges are then revealed as more complex than recorded presences suggest, and metapopulation theory, which predicts fragmented favorable patches with connectivity among them, can be operationally analyzed. We identified the favorable patches for 222 butterfly species in the Iberian Peninsula using high values of favorability. We calculated the cost of reaching any part of the territory from a favorable patch using low values of favorability and distance and computed the inverse as connectivity. Some of the favorable territories can be vacant patches but also belong to the metapopulation structure, as they may be recolonized. This information is relevant for territory management and biodiversity conservation, serving to justify the protection of new areas or the modification of contours of reserves based on the role they play for the populations of interest. Metapopulation theory considers that the populations of many species are fragmented into patches connected by the migration of individuals through an interterritorial matrix. We applied fuzzy set theory and environmental favorability (F) functions to reveal the metapopulational structure of the 222 butterfly species in the Iberian Peninsula. We used the sets of contiguous grid cells with high favorability (F ≥ 0.8), to identify the favorable patches for each species. We superimposed the known occurrence data to reveal the occupied and empty favorable patches, as unoccupied patches are functional in a metapopulation dynamics analysis. We analyzed the connectivity between patches of each metapopulation by focusing on the territory of intermediate and low favorability for the species (F < 0.8). The friction that each cell opposes to the passage of individuals was computed as 1-F. We used the r.cost function of QGIS to calculate the cost of reaching each cell from a favorable patch. The inverse of the cost was computed as connectivity. Only 126 species can be considered to have a metapopulation structure. These metapopulation structures are part of the dark biodiversity of butterflies because their identification is not evident from the observation of the occurrence data but was revealed using favorability functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]