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Invasive pests, such as the pine wood nematode (PWN), threaten European forests. In De la Fuente, Saura, and Beck, Journal of Applied Ecology, 2018, 55, 2374, we modelled the natural spread of the PWN by the longhorn beetle (Monochamus galloprovincialis) on the Iberian Peninsula. We used the model to evaluate the effectiveness of several management measures to control the PWN spread: early detection and removal of infected trees, beetle mass trapping and clear‐cut belts. We simulated these particular measures because they have been or are being applied in PWN containment efforts on the Iberian Peninsula.Martínez‐Abraín and Jiménez, Journal of Applied Ecology, 2019, suggested that two other management measures would be appropriate to halt the PWN expansion: installing nest boxes for insectivorous birds in order to increase predation on vector beetles and increasing the populations of large mammalian herbivores to lower forest tree density.The results of De la Fuente, Saura, and Beck, Journal of Applied Ecology, 2018, 55, 2374 showed that a combination of measures is more likely to control PWN spread than any single one in isolation, indicating that halting this, and many other invasive species, requires a comprehensive approach.Here, we review current evidence on the efficacy of the measures proposed by Martínez‐Abraín and Jiménez, Journal of Applied Ecology, 2019, as PWN management tools. This evidence suggests that, by themselves, these measures are unlikely to significantly slow down, let alone halt, the PWN spread on the Iberian Peninsula. Furthermore, we indicate how the model presented in De la Fuente, Saura, and Beck, Journal of Applied Ecology, 2018, 55, 2374 lends itself to assessing this quantitatively in future research.Synthesis and applications. Lost biotic interactions in ecosystems can make them more vulnerable to invasions, and restoring interactions can in turn increase resilience. Ecosystem restoration can thus, in theory, also benefit invasive species management. Current evidence indicates however that managing natural species interactions, such as beetle predation from insectivorous birds or herbivory by large mammals, would need to be applied in combination with other measures if they are to halt or significantly slow down the expansion of the PWN in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invasive pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, causal agent of pine wilt disease, was first reported in Europe, near Lisbon, in 1999, and has since then spread to most of Portugal. We here modelled the spatiotemporal patterns of future PNW natural spread in the Iberian Peninsula, as dispersed by the vector beetle Monochamus galloprovincialis, using a process-based and previously validated network model. We improved the accuracy, informative content, forecasted period and spatial drivers considered in previous modelling efforts for the PWN in Southern Europe. We considered the distribution and different susceptibility to the PWN of individual pine tree species and the effect of climate change projections on environmental suitability for PWN spread, as we modelled the PWN expansion dynamics over the long term (>100 years). We found that, in the absence of effective containment measures, the PWN will spread naturally to the entire Iberian Peninsula, including the Pyrenees, where it would find a gateway for spread into France. The PWN spread will be relatively gradual, with an average rate of 0.83% of the total current Iberian pine forest area infected yearly. Climate was not found to be an important limiting factor for long-term PWN spread, because (i) there is ample availability of alternative pathways for PWN dispersal through areas that are already suitable for the PWN in the current climatic conditions; and (ii) future temperatures will make most of the Iberian Peninsula suitable for the PWN before the end of this century. Unlike climate, the susceptibility of different pine tree species to the PWN was a strong determinant of PWN expansion through Spain. This finding highlights the importance of accounting for individual tree species data and of additional research on species-specific susceptibility for more accurate modelling of PWN spread and guidance of related containment efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]