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It is increasingly recognized that climate change could impose both direct and indirect impacts on the quality of the water environment. Previous studies have mostly concentrated on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds. Few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the water quality of river basins with complex point and non-point pollution sources. In view of the gap, this paper aims to establish a framework for stochastic assessment of the sensitivity of water quality to future climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources. A sub-daily soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from multiple point and non-point pollution sources in the upper Huai River basin of China. A weather generator was used to produce 50 years of synthetic daily weather data series for all 25 combinations of precipitation (changes by − 10, 0, 10, 20, and 30%) and temperature change (increases by 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 °C) scenarios. The generated daily rainfall series was disaggregated into the hourly scale and then used to drive the sub-daily SWAT model to simulate the nitrogen cycle under different climate change scenarios. Our results in the study region have indicated that (1) both total nitrogen (TN) loads and concentrations are insensitive to temperature change; (2) TN loads are highly sensitive to precipitation change, while TN concentrations are moderately sensitive; (3) the impacts of climate change on TN concentrations are more spatiotemporally variable than its impacts on TN loads; and (4) wide distributions of TN loads and TN concentrations under individual climate change scenario illustrate the important role of climatic variability in affecting water quality conditions. In summary, the large variability in SWAT simulation results within and between each climate change scenario highlights the uncertainty of the impacts of climate change and the need to incorporate extreme conditions in managing water environment and developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental problems such as eutrophication caused by excessive nutrient discharge are global challenges. There are complex pollution sources of nitrogen (N) discharge in many river basins worldwide. Knowledge of its pollution sources and their respective load contributions is essential to developing effective N pollution control strategies. N loads from all known anthropogenic pollution sources in the Upper Huai River basin of China were simulated with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The performances of SWAT driven by daily and hourly rainfall inputs were assessed and it was found that the one driven by hourly rainfall outperformed the one driven by daily rainfall in simulating both total nitrogen (TN) and ammonia nitrogen (NH 4 -N) loads. The hourly SWAT model was hence used to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of TN and NH 4 -N loads and their source attributions. TN load exhibited significant seasonal variations with the largest in summer and the smallest in spring. Despite its declining proportion of contribution downstream, crop production remained the largest contributor of TN load followed by septic tanks, concentrated animal feedlot operations (CAFOs), municipal sewage treatment plants, industries, and scattered animal feedlot operations (SAFOs). There was much less seasonal variation in NH 4 -N load. CAFOs remained the largest source of NH 4 -N load throughout the basin, while contributions from industries and municipal sewage treatment plants were more evident downstream. Our study results suggest the need to shift the focus of N load reduction from “end-of-pipe” sewage treatment to an integrated approach emphasizing stakeholder involvement and source prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the available toxicity data and the concentrations of DDTs and HCHs in surface water from the upper reaches of the Huaihe River, overlapping areas of probability density and margin of safety (MOS10) were used to estimate the risk levels of DDTs and HCHs to aquatic organisms. The overlapping areas ofα-HCH, γ-HCH,p,p′-DDE,p,p′-DDD, andp,p′-DDT were found to be 9.3 × 10−5, 4.6 × 10−3, 4.3 × 10−2, 2.2 × 10−2, and 4.2 × 10−2, respectively. The risks from DDTs were higher than those from HCHs, the risk from α-HCH being the smallest. The MOS10values of α-HCH, γ-HCH,p,p′-DDE,p,p′-DDD, andp,p′-DDT were 2.6 × 103, 97, 5.9, 15, and 8.6, respectively, i.e. greater than 1.0, indicating limited overlaps between the distributions of exposure concentrations and of toxicity data, and thus minimal ecological risk. Health risk calculations based on incremental lifetime risks for HCHs and DDTs were conducted to evaluate human cancer risk and non-carcinogenic hazard. The total cancer risks from organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in the studied area were in the range of 10−8–10−7, lower than the baseline value of acceptable risk (10−6). Non-carcinogenic hazard indices of OCPs ranging from 10−6to 10−5were much lower than the threshold values (1.0). These results suggest that the water from the upper reaches of the Huaihe River does not pose any health risk for local residents using river water as a source for drinking water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residues of HCHs and DDTs in surface water and suspended particulate matter (SPM) from upper reach of the Huaihe River, East China, were investigated. Levels of total HCHs (∑HCH) and total DDTs (∑DDT) in water detected by GC-ECD ranged from 0.85 to 12.77ngL−1 and from 3.54 to 33.59ngL−1, respectively. According to European and America water quality guidelines, HCHs were within safe levels while DDT would pose adverse biological effects. Distribution of OCPs in water indicated that input of tributaries was important factor for the Huaihe River. For OCPs in SPM, concentrations varied from 1.01 to 25.22ngg−1 for ∑HCH and not detected to 4.74ngg−1 for ∑DDT. Compared with sediment quality guidelines, HCHs and DDTs might have an ecological risk. The main reason for OCPs residues in the Huaihe River was usage of lindane and technical DDT. Furthermore, composition of DDTs reflected fresh inputs of dicofol mixture in some sites. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]