1. New global dynamical results and application of several SVEIS epidemic models with temporary immunity.
- Author
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Wang, Lianwen, Liu, Zhijun, Guo, Caihong, Li, Yong, and Zhang, Xinan
- Subjects
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PANDEMICS , *AUTONOMOUS differential equations , *NONLINEAR differential equations , *IMMUNITY , *GLOBAL analysis (Mathematics) , *STABILITY criterion - Abstract
• A novel nonlinear SVEIS epidemic model with temporary immunity is formulated. • The incidence rate of the model is a generalization of numerous nonlinear ones. • Global dynamics of the model proposed arempletely addressed by a new geometric criterion. • Global stability for several existing nonlinear SVEIS models is fully solved. • Model parameters are estimated to study the effects of multiple measures on the H1N1 pandemic. This work applies a novel geometric criterion for global stability of nonlinear autonomous differential equations generalized by Lu and Lu (2017) to establish global threshold dynamics for several SVEIS epidemic models with temporary immunity, incorporating saturated incidence and nonmonotone incidence with psychological effect, and an SVEIS model with saturated incidence and partial temporary immunity. Incidentally, global stability for the SVEIS models with saturated incidence in Cai and Li (2009), Sahu and Dhar (2012) is completely solved. Furthermore, employing the DEDiscover simulation tool, the parameters in Sahu and Dhar'model are estimated with the 2009–2010 pandemic H1N1 case data in Hong Kong China, and it is validated that the vaccination programme indeed avoided subsequent potential outbreak waves of the pandemic. Finally, global sensitivity analysis reveals that multiple control measures should be utilized jointly to cut down the peak of the waves dramatically and delay the arrival of the second wave, thereinto timely vaccination is particularly effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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