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1. Using a common modelling approach, mortality attributable to influenza was higher in the two subtropical cities Guangzhou and Hong Kong than in the tropical city Singapore. 2. The virus activity appeared more synchronised in subtropical cities, whereas seasonality of influenza tended to be less marked in the tropical city. 3. High temperature was associated with increased mortality after influenza infection in Hong Kong, whereas relative humidity was an effect modifier for influenza in Guangzhou. No effect modification was found for Singapore. 4. Seasonal and environmental factors probably play a more important role than socioeconomic factors in regulating seasonality and disease burden of influenza. Further studies are needed in identifying the mechanism behind the regulatory role of environmental factors.

Background: Information on life expectancy (LE) change is of great concern for policy makers, as evidenced by discussions of the "harvesting" (or "mortality displacement") issue, i.e. how large an LE loss corresponds to the mortality results of time series (TS) studies. Whereas loss of LE attributable to chronic air pollution exposure can be determined from cohort studies, using life table methods, conventional TS studies have identified only deaths due to acute exposure, during the immediate past (typically the preceding one to five days), and they provide no information about the LE loss per death., Methods: We show how to obtain information on population-average LE loss by extending the observation window (largest "lag") of TS to include a sufficient number of "impact coefficients" for past exposures ("lags"). We test several methods for determining these coefficients. Once all of the coefficients have been determined, the LE change is calculated as time integral of the relative risk change after a permanent step change in exposure., Results: The method is illustrated with results for daily data of non-accidental mortality from Hong Kong for 1985 - 2005, regressed against PM10 and SO2 with observation windows up to 5 years. The majority of the coefficients is statistically significant. The magnitude of the SO2 coefficients is comparable to those for PM10. But a window of 5 years is not sufficient and the results for LE change are only a lower bound; it is consistent with what is implied by other studies of long term impacts., Conclusions: A TS analysis can determine the LE loss, but if the observation window is shorter than the relevant exposures one obtains only a lower bound.

Cervical cancer incidence and mortality statistics in Hong Kong during 1972-2001 were examined to estimate the potential number of cancer cases that can be averted and years of life saved after the launch of an organised, population-based cytologic screening recall programme in 2004 with projections to 2016. Incidence rates under the status quo of opportunistic screening were projected by an age-period-cohort model, using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Modelled rates were translated into numbers of cancer cases and deaths using mid-year population figures and age-period-specific mortality to incidence ratios. We applied International Agency for Research on Cancer risk reduction estimates for different screening strategies to these base case figures to estimate the number of incident cancers potentially averted and years of life saved attributable to organised screening incremental to the current status quo. The estimated numbers of cases projected to be preventable by the maximum likelihood (Bayesian) approach from 2002 to 2016 were 4226 (4176), 3778 (3728) and 2334 (2287) with organised screening every 1, 3 and 5 years, compared to haphazard screening currently. Correspondingly, 33,000 (32,800), 29,500 (29,300) and 18,200 (17,900) years of life could potentially be saved.

A binary latent variable is constructed to account for the correlation between multiple binary outcomes and is treated as a dependent variable in modelling for covariate effects. This modelling method is similar to the structural equation modelling. Three models are considered: (1) all covariates affecting the binary latent variable directly; (2) some covariates affecting the binary latent variable while other affecting the manifestation of the binary outcomes; and (3) no covariates are included. Gibbs sampling, a special case of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, is used to estimate the parameters in the models. Simulation studies show that this method is valid and reliable in estimating covariate effects. But Model (1) fitted the data best with lowest value in the deviance information criteria. The method is illustrated by applying it to the data analysis of an environmental air pollution study. The results show that air pollution (i.e. the most versus the least polluted district) (odds ratio 1.20; 95% confidence interval 0.97-1.49; p=0.102), smoking (relative to not smoking) (2.75; 2.21-3.41; p < 0.001) and mosquito coil use (relative to non-use) (1.27; 0.99-1.62; p=0.058) had an impact on the respiratory health of male adults in Hong Kong., (Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Hong Kong has the highest breast cancer incidence in Asia and studying secular changes in its rates may lead to hypotheses regarding disease aetiology and also predictions of future trends for China. We examined statistics from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry based on 26 566 cases of invasive breast cancer from 1973 to 1999. The trends in breast cancer incidence were studied using log-linear longitudinal models. We further analysed the independent effects of chronological age, time period and birth cohort on incidence trends using age-period-cohort modelling. The average annual per cent change of the age-standardised incidence was 3.6% during 1973-1999. Age-period-cohort modelling indicated the incidence development was predominantly a cohort effect, where the rise in relative risk was seemingly linear in successive birth cohorts, showing a 2-3-fold difference when comparing women born in the 1960's with those born around 1900. Our results suggest that direct and indirect consequences of westernisation may have been responsible for most of the observed increase in breast cancer incidence. As China moves towards a more westernised way of life, we can expect an emerging epidemic of breast cancer as Hong Kong's experience has demonstrated.

Background: High cesarean birth rates are an issue of international public health concern. The purpose of this paper was to examine the annual incidence and secular trend of cesarean births in Hong Kong and to correlate these rates with socioeconomic, demographic, and health indicators for the population since 1987., Methods: This was a descriptive and ecologic study. Annual population rates of cesarean sections were estimated for 1987 from a population-based survey, and for 1993 through 1999 from government data sources. The number of excess cesarean sections was calculated for each year using the 15 percent upper limit as proposed by the World Health Organization., Results: From 1987 to 1999 the overall annual cesarean section rate rose steadily from 16.6 to 27.4 per 100 hospital deliveries, resulting in a 65 percent increase over 12 years. The mean difference in rates of surgical delivery between public (mean(public) = 16.0%) and private (mean(private) = 43.4%) institutions was 27.4 percent (95% confidence interval (CI) = 24.1, 30.7; p < 0.001)., Conclusions: This is the first systematic report of secular variations of cesarean delivery rates in Asia. The high rates and increasing trend represent an unnecessary excess risk for mothers and their infants. Various strategies combating high cesarean rates have been proposed and have succeeded elsewhere. Concerted action from health care professionals, public health authorities, the general population, and the media is urgently required to implement solutions to reduce the rate of cesarean delivery.