1. Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys.
- Author
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Sung BYC, Tang EHM, Bedford L, Wong CKH, Tse ETY, Yu EYT, Cheung BMY, and Lam CLK
- Subjects
- Humans, Hong Kong epidemiology, Male, Middle Aged, Female, Aged, Adult, Risk Assessment methods, Heart Disease Risk Factors, Risk Factors, Smoking epidemiology, Age Factors, Hypertension epidemiology, Sex Factors, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases epidemiology, Health Surveys
- Abstract
Introduction: The Framingham risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study used this model to calculate the changes in sex- and age-specific CVD risks in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 compared with two previous surveys conducted during 2003 and 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005., Methods: This study included individuals aged 30 to 74 years from PHS 2014/15 (n=1662; n=4 445 868 after population weighting) and PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (n=818; n=3 495 074 after population weighting) with complete data for calculating the risk of CVD predicted by the Framingham model. Sex-specific CVD risks were calculated based on age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habit, diabetic status, and hypertension treatment. Mean sex- and age-specific CVD risks were calculated; differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were compared by independent t tests., Results: The difference in 10-year CVD risk from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015 was not statistically significant (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29). After age standardisation according to World Health Organization world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015. Analysis according to age-group showed that more participants aged 65 to 74 years were considered high risk in 2003 to 2005 (2003-2005: 66.8% vs 2014-2015: 53.1%; P=0.028). This difference may be due to the decrease in smokers among men (2003-2005: 30.5% vs 2014-2015: 24.0%; P<0.001)., Conclusion: From 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, there was a small decrease in age-standardised 10-year CVD risk. A holistic public health approach simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors is needed to achieve greater decreases in CVD risk., Competing Interests: As advisers of the journal, CKH Wong and EYT Yu were not involved in the peer review process. Other authors have disclosed no conflicts of interest.
- Published
- 2024
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