1. Long- and short-term time series forecasting of air quality by a multi-scale framework.
- Author
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Jiang S, Yu ZG, Anh VV, and Zhou Y
- Subjects
- Cities, Forecasting, Hong Kong, Particulate Matter analysis, Air Pollutants analysis, Air Pollution analysis
- Abstract
Air quality forecasting for Hong Kong is a challenge. Even taking the advantages of auto-regressive integrated moving average and some state-of-the-art numerical models, a recently-developed hybrid method for one-day (two- and three-day) ahead forecasting performs similarly to (slightly better than) a simple persistence forecasting. Long-term forecasting also remains an important issue, especially for policy decision for better control of air pollution and for evaluation of the long-term impacts on public health. Given the well-recognized negative effects of PM
2.5 , NO2 and O3 on public health, we study their time series under the multi-scale framework with empirical mode decomposition and nonstationary oscillation resampling to explore the possibility of long-term forecasting and to improve short-term forecasts in Hong Kong. Applied to a dataset from January 2016 to December 2018, the long-term forecasting (with lead time about 100 days) of the multi-scale framework has the root-mean-square error (RMSE) comparable with that of the short-term (with lead time of one or two days) forecasting by the persistence method, while its improvement for short-term forecasting (with lead time of one, two or three days) is quite substantial over the persistence forecasting, with RMSEs reduced by respectively 44%-47%, 30%-45%, and 40%-60% for PM2.5 , NO2 , and O3 . Compared to the hybrid method, it turns out that, for short-term forecasting for the same data, the multi-scale framework can reduce RMSE by about 25% (respectively 30%) for PM2.5 (respectively NO2 and O3 ). In addition, we find no significant difference in the forecasting performance of the multi-scale framework among different types of stations. The multi-scale framework is feasible for time series forecasting and applicable to other pollutants in other cities., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)- Published
- 2021
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