Search

Your search keyword '"Zeng, Liang"' showing total 2 results
Start Over Author "Zeng, Liang" Region guangdong sheng (china)
2 results on '"Zeng, Liang"'

1. Forecasting the primary energy consumption using a time delay grey model with fractional order accumulation.

Author

Zeng, Liang

Subjects
*ENERGY consumption forecasting, *TIME delay systems, *ENERGY consumption, *TIME management, *STATISTICAL correlation, *ENERGY security, *PARTICLE swarm optimization
Abstract

Energy consumption prediction is a hot issue, which is of great significance to regional energy security. In the existing prediction research with small samples, the time delay characteristic of an energy consumption system in itself is often ignored. To reflect the time delay characteristic of an energy consumption system and accurately grasp its development trend, a novel nonlinear time delay grey model with fractional order accumulation is presented. The new model is utilized to forecast and analyze Guangdong's primary energy consumption, in which the time delay parameter is ascertained by the grey correlation analysis method, and the other parameters are determined via particle swarm optimization. The results show the simulation accuracy of the new model is higher than those of the other 3 grey models, and the predicted results in the next three years can provide decision-making and theoretical reference for the relevant departments of Guangdong province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
Full Text
View/download PDF

2. Analysing the high-tech industry with a multivariable grey forecasting model based on fractional order accumulation.

Author

Zeng, Liang

Subjects
*HIGH technology industries, *SOCIAL development, *FACTORIAL experiment designs, *MULTIVARIABLE testing, *PREDICTION models, *ECONOMIC development, *FUTUROLOGISTS
Abstract

Purpose: High-tech industries play an important role in promoting economic and social development. The purpose of this paper is to accurately predict and analyze the output value of high-tech products in Guangdong Province, China, by using a multivariable grey model. Design/methodology/approach: Based on the principle of fractional order accumulation, this study proposes a multivariable grey prediction model. To further enhance the prediction ability and accuracy of the model, an optimized model is established by reconstructing the background value. The optimal parameters are solved by minimizing the average relative error of the system characteristic sequence with the constraint of parameter relationships. Findings: The results from the study show that the two proposed models exhibit better simulation and prediction performance than the traditional models, while the optimized model can significantly improve the modelling precision. In addition, it is predicted that the output value of high-tech products is 12,269.443bn yuan in 2021, which will approximately double from 2016 to 2021. Research limitations/implications: The two proposed models can be used to forecast the trend of the system and are grown as an effective extension and supplement of the traditional multivariable grey forecasting models. Practical implications: The forecast and analysis of the development prospects of high-tech industries would be useful for the government departments of Guangdong Province and professional forecasters to grasp the future of high-tech industries and formulate decision planning. Originality/value: A new multivariable grey prediction model based on fractional order accumulation and its optimized model obtained by reconstructing the background value, which can improve the modelling accuracy of the traditional model, is proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
Full Text
View/download PDF

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results