1. Sensitivity of Nocturnal Warm Sector Rainfall Simulation to the Configuration of Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions: A Case Study in Southern China Based on the Operational TRAMS Model.
- Author
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Xu, D. S., Chen, H. W., Leung, J. C., Huang, H., and Zhang, B. L.
- Subjects
RAINFALL ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,RAINSTORMS ,WEATHER - Abstract
A heavy nocturnal warm sector rainfall occurred over the western coastal region of South China in June 2020, of which the precipitation magnitude was seriously underestimated by the operational TRAMS (Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model System) model. In this study, by improving the configuration of initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) in offline nesting, the simulation of the convection initiation (CI) process can be well improved. The CI simulation is found to be sensitive to the vertical resolution in ICs in this case. When the low‐level vertical resolution of ICs is increased, the nocturnal near‐surface cold layer caused by inland mountains can be resolved better, which is necessary to form the convergence line along the coastline. Another important impact of increasing the vertical resolution of ICs is the successful simulation of horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) over the northern South China Sea. The HCRs apparently increase the depth of the warm‐moist marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ), and finally lead to the CI along the coastline. The increased vertical resolutions of LBCs can reduce the discontinuity of simulated moist tongue across the southern lateral boundary of the TRAMS model, which provides more moisture for the warm sector rainfall through MBLJ. LBCs with Higher temporal frequency help to alleviate the western position bias of rain belt by reducing the temporal interpolation error. Our study highlights the importance of finer ICs and LBCs in offline nesting for regional operational NWP systems in the South China region. Plain Language Summary: Warm‐sector heavy rainfall in South China usually develops under weakly forced weather condition, numerical forecasting of its initiation and intensification process is a difficult problem. To investigate its sensitivity to the configuration of initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), a simulation study is carried out for a nocturnal warm sector rainfall event happened in western Guangdong. When the low‐level vertical resolution of ICs is increased, the nocturnal near surface cold layer from inland mountains can be resolved better. Another important impact of increasing vertical resolution of ICs is the successful simulation of horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) over the northern South China Sea. The HCRs apparently increase the depth of warm‐moist marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ), and finally lead to the CI along coast line. Additionally, the vertical resolution and the updating frequency of the lateral boundary conditions also have important effects on the simulation of the rainstorm intensification process. This paper emphasizes the importance of accurate ICs and LBCs to improve the predictability of warm‐sector rainfall in South China, which can provide practical reference for the design of operational systems. Key Points: Increasing low‐level vertical resolution of initial conditions is critical to the convection initiation (CI) simulation of warm‐sector rainfall caseThe increased vertical resolutions of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) can provide more moisture for the CI and upscale convective growth process through marine boundary layer jetHigher temporal frequency LBCs is help to alleviate the western position bias of rain belt by reducing the temporal interpolation error [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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