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The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America's Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and considered a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally consistent invasion scenarios for five aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sport fish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision-making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenariobuilding approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nearshore zones of the Great Lakes provide essential habitat for biota and are perhaps the region of the lakes most susceptible to human impacts. The objective of our study was to develop a fish habitat classification for the nearshore zone of Lake Ontario based on physical characteristics of that zone, land cover in the surrounding watershed, and fish community patterns. Nearly 80% of the spatial variation in fish community data was described by 2 physical variables (average fetch and bathymetric slope of the nearshore zone) and 2 land-cover variables (urban/industrial development and mixed forest cover) in adjacent watersheds. These variables are likely to be surrogates for other conditions in the nearshore, such as wave action, circulation, vegetation, and water quality. A 12-group fish habitat classification was developed from those variables. Validation and significance tests identified similarities and differences among the fish communities in the classes and indicated that the number of classes should be collapsed to 3: exposed, sheltered, and developed/urbanized. In general, the western basin of the lake was developed, the central region was exposed, and the eastern region of the lake was a mix of exposed and sheltered classes. These results highlight that even in lakes as large as Lake Ontario, the nearshore fish community is influenced by watershed land cover, and emphasize that management or restoration of the nearshore ecosystem in lakes will require integration of aquatic, watershed, and land-cover management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Fisheries is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Since 2006, the known distribution of Hemimysis anomala has greatly expanded in the Great Lakes ecosystem, with, to date, 45 sites of occurrence among 91 monitored sites, located in four of the Great Lakes and the upper St. Lawrence River. By means of carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes, a first assessment of the feeding ecology of Hemimysis was completed. The δ13C values of 18 individuals collected in Lake Erie (Port Mainland) on a single date (Sept. 23, 2008) ranged from −30.2 to −24.5‰, indicating that Hemimysis could feed on multiple carbon sources including pelagic and littoral autochthonous and terrestrial carbon. In Lake Erie, variation in δ13C was related to δ15N, indicating the importance of food source for determining the trophic position of Hemimysis. The δ15N signatures of individuals were strongly related to their C/N ratios, suggesting that variations in the nutritional value of Hemimysis may depend on trophic position. Isotopic variation among individuals in Lake Erie was complemented by temporal variation in Lake Ontario. Monthly changes (from June to December 2008) in carbon isotope signatures were observed and related to changes in water temperature, highlighting the variations in the baseline prey signatures that fuel Hemimysis diets. The observed variation in stable isotope signatures occurring among individuals within a localized Hemimysis assemblage and temporally should be considered as a key design feature in further studies attempting to identify the possible effects of Hemimysis on nearshore food webs in the Great Lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]