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Summary: Crowdsourcing methods facilitate the production of scientific information by non‐experts. This form of citizen science (CS) is becoming a key source of complementary data in many fields to inform data‐driven decisions and study challenging problems. However, concerns about the validity of these data often constrain their utility. In this paper, we focus on the use of citizen science data in addressing complex challenges in environmental conservation. We consider this issue from three perspectives. First, we present a literature scan of papers that have employed Bayesian models with citizen science in ecology. Second, we compare several popular majority vote algorithms and introduce a Bayesian item response model that estimates and accounts for participants' abilities after adjusting for the difficulty of the images they have classified. The model also enables participants to be clustered into groups based on ability. Third, we apply the model in a case study involving the classification of corals from underwater images from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that the model achieved superior results in general and, for difficult tasks, a weighted consensus method that uses only groups of experts and experienced participants produced better performance measures. Moreover, we found that participants learn as they have more classification opportunities, which substantially increases their abilities over time. Overall, the paper demonstrates the feasibility of CS for answering complex and challenging ecological questions when these data are appropriately analysed. This serves as motivation for future work to increase the efficacy and trustworthiness of this emerging source of data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs are under threat from cumulative impacts such as cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks and climate-driven coral bleaching events. Branching corals are more severely impacted by these events than other coral morphologies due to their sensitivity to heat stress and weaker skeletons and COTS preferred prey. The central Great Barrier Reef experienced unprecedented back-to-back bleaching events in 2016 and 2017. This study commenced in 2017 at the peak of heat stress and examined the impact of the heatwave on the survival and recovery of corals by assessing the growth, health (based on the visual health index) and physiological parameters (chlorophyll a, zooxanthellae density, lipid and protein content) of two species, Acropora millepora and Pocillopora acuta (N = 60 colonies for each species). It was conducted across a gradient of turbidity at three reefs, Pandora, Orpheus and Rib, that experienced in April 2017, degree heating weeks (DHW) of 9, 8 and 7, respectively. Orpheus experienced the worst bleaching, based on visual health score, followed by Rib and Pandora. Rib experienced the greatest mortality (78% by Nov 2017); however, this was attributed to the presence of actively feeding crown-of-thorns starfish. Growth rates of A. millepora were almost twice the rate of P. acuta. Both species showed significant seasonal variation with growth of A. millepora and P. acuta 35–40% and 23–33% significantly greater in the summer, respectively. Differences in growth rates were best explained by indicators of energy acquisition. For example, the most important predictor variable in determining higher growth rates and visual health score in A. millepora was chlorophyll a content. For P. acuta, visual health score was the best predictor variable for higher growth rates. This study highlights the important role that chlorophyll a and associated symbionts play in growth and survival in these corals during and after a heat stress event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral bleaching has impacted reefs worldwide and the predictions of near‐annual bleaching from over two decades ago have now been realized. While technology currently provides the means to predict large‐scale bleaching, predicting reef‐scale and within‐reef patterns in real‐time for all reef users is limited. In 2020, heat stress across the Great Barrier Reef underpinned the region's third bleaching event in 5 years. Here we review the heterogeneous emergence of bleaching across Heron Island reef habitats and discuss the oceanographic drivers that underpinned variable bleaching emergence. We do so as a case study to highlight how reef end‐user groups who engage with coral reefs in different ways require targeted guidance for how, and when, to alter their use of coral reefs in response to bleaching events. Our case study of coral bleaching emergence demonstrates how within‐reef scale nowcasting of coral bleaching could aid the development of accessible and equitable bleaching response strategies on coral reefs. Also see the video abstract here: https://youtu.be/N9Tgb8N-vN0 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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While links between heat stress and coral bleaching are clear and predictive tools for bleaching risk are well advanced, links between heat stress and outbreaks of coral diseases are less well understood. In this study, the effects of accumulated heat stress on tagged colonies of tabular Acropora were monitored over the 2017 austral summer at Beaver Reef, which is located in the central region of the Great Barrier Reef. The initial surveys in midsummer (21 February) coincided with an accumulated heat stress metric of 4.5 °C-weeks, and documented high coral cover (74.0 ± 6.5%), extensive bleaching (71% of all corals displayed bleaching signs) and an outbreak of white syndromes (WSs) (31% of tabular acroporid corals displayed white syndrome signs). Repeat assessments of the impacts of bleaching and disease on these corals provided real-time information to reef managers by tracking the unfolding reef health incident on 100 colonies of Acropora hyacinthus (Dana, 1846), tagged in mid-March and surveyed intermittently until late October 2017. Heat stress increased rapidly on Beaver Reef, peaking at 8.3 °C-weeks on 31 March, which coincided with the highest prevalence of WS recorded in the study. Of the 85 tagged colonies surviving on 31 March, 41 (~ 48%) displayed WS signs, indicating a link between heat stress and WS. When re-surveyed at eight months (24 October), 68 of 100 tagged colonies had suffered whole-colony mortality and only four colonies had not displayed signs of bleaching or disease (WS) in any of our surveys. Overall, coral cover on Beaver Reef was reduced by more than half to 31.0 ± 11.2%. Significant tissue loss due to severe bleaching was observed with up to 20 times greater tissue loss on severely bleached colonies (i.e. categorised as > 50% bleached) compared to mildly/moderately bleached colonies (< 50% bleached) at the heat stress peak (31 March). This suggests that for Acropora hyacinthus, a threshold of 50% colony bleaching is a good indicator that substantial mortality at both the colony and population level is likely to follow a heat stress event. Across all levels of bleaching, colonies displaying WS signs exhibited up to seven times greater tissue loss than bleached-only colonies. WS caused a threefold increase in accumulated tissue loss (69.6 ± 10.5% tissue lost) in the mildly bleached category, suggesting that disease exacerbated mortality in bleached corals and contributed significantly to the substantial loss of corals on the GBR in 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic processes, such as growth, can have an important influence on the population and community structure of reef-building corals. Importantly, ongoing changes in environmental conditions (e.g. ocean warming) are expected to affect coral growth, contributing to changes in the structure of coral populations and communities. This study quantified contemporary growth rates (linear extension and calcification) for the staghorn coral, Acropora muricata, at Davies Reef, central Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Growth rates were measured at three different depths (5, 10, and 15 m) over 2 yr (2012-2014) assessing both seasonal and inter-annual variability. Results of this study were compared to equivalent measurements made in 1980-1982 at the same location. To assist in understanding inter-annual variability in coral growth, we also examined annual growth bands from massive Porites providing continuous growth and records of flooding history for Davies Reef over the period 1979-2012. Linear extension rates of A. muricata were substantially (11-62%) lower in 2012-2014 compared to 1980-1982, especially at 10 and 15 m depths. These declines in growth coincide with a + 0.14 °C change in annual mean temperature. For massive Porites, however, calcification rates were highly variable among years and there was no discernible long-term change in growth despite sustained increases in temperature of 0.064 °C per decade. Apparent differences in the growth rates of Acropora between 1980-1982 and 2012-2014 may reflect inter-annual variation in coral growth (as seen for massive Porites), though it is known branching Acropora is much more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than massive corals. There are persistent issues in assessing the sensitivities of branching corals to environmental change due to limited capacity for retrospective analyses of growth, but given their disproportionate contribution to habitat complexity and reef structure, it is critical to ascertain whether there are increasing impacts on their demography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface velocity data from two WERA high-frequency (HF) ocean radar systems, deployed as part of the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS), are compared with near-surface currents obtained from drifters and acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs). We evaluate data from two contrasting locations in the first detailed evaluation of the IMOS HF radar surface velocities. HF radar measurements are generally robust but demand quality-control procedures to eliminate obvious errors and outliers that appear temporarily or systematically in the data. A number of different quality control procedures and filters are applied and assessed including Taylor diagrams and Hampel and Savitzky–Golay filters. In addition, the need for and effect of averaging are discussed. The radar measurements of surface current agreed better with the near-surface drifter currents than with the subsurface ADCP currents. Nonetheless, the ADCP comparisons are consistent with those previously reported in other regions. The value of the Taylor diagram for comparing different surface current data sets and processing approaches is demonstrated. Noise levels in the radar current spectra are used to estimate the error in the measurements and in some cases, these errors were found to approach the precision of the radar estimates. Our results give guidance on the most useful temporal sampling resolution. In particular we show that at these sites and these operating frequencies, using 10-min sampling without further averaging does not provide additional information because the higher frequencies are dominated by noise. Averaging the radials over 30 min may be sufficient for many applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A spatial risk assessment model is developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) that helps identify reef locations at higher or lower risk of coral bleaching in summer heat-wave conditions. The model confirms the considerable benefit of discriminating nutrient-enriched areas that contain corals with enlarged (suboptimal) symbiont densities for the purpose of identifying bleaching-sensitive reef locations. The benefit of the new system-level understanding is showcased in terms of: (i) improving early-warning forecasts of summer bleaching risk, (ii) explaining historical bleaching patterns, (iii) testing the bleaching-resistant quality of the current marine protected area (MPA) network (iv) identifying routinely monitored coral health attributes, such as the tissue energy reserves and skeletal growth characteristics (viz. density and extension rates) that correlate with bleaching resistant reef locations, and (v) targeting region-specific water quality improvement strategies that may increase reef-scale coral health and bleaching resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to disturbance is rarely considered in marine protected area planning. Typically, representing and replicating the habitat types present within protected areas is used to spread the risk of protecting frequently disturbed sites. This was the approach used during the 2004 re-zoning of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) via the Representative Areas Program. Over 10 years later, we examine whether the risk was spread by mapping exposure of coral reefs in the GBRMP to four disturbances that cause coral mortality: bleaching, tropical cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks, and freshwater inundation. Our objectives were to: (1) assess whether no-take areas include a range of disturbance regimes, and (2) identify coral reef areas with lower relative exposure. At least 13% and an average of 31% of reef locations in each of 11 exposure classes are included within no-take areas. A greater proportion of low-exposure areas are within no-take areas than high-exposure areas (34.2% vs. 28.3%). The results demonstrate the value of risk spreading when exposure data are not available while also showing that regularly assessing exposure increases capacity for adaptive, resilience-based reef management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral bleaching events threaten the sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Here we show that bleaching events of the past three decades have been mitigated by induced thermal tolerance of reef-building corals, and this protective mechanism is likely to be lost under near-future climate change scenarios. We show that 75% of past thermal stress events have been characterized by a temperature trajectory that subjects corals to a protective, sub-bleaching stress, before reaching temperatures that cause bleaching. Such conditions confer thermal tolerance, decreasing coral cell mortality and symbiont loss during bleaching by over 50%. We find that near-future increases in local temperature of as little as 0.5°C result in this protective mechanism being lost, which may increase the rate of degradation of the GBR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting wildlife disease risk is essential for effective monitoring and management, especially for geographically expansive ecosystems such as coral reefs in the Hawaiian archipelago. Warming ocean temperature has increased coral disease outbreaks contributing to declines in coral cover worldwide. In this study we investigated seasonal effects of thermal stress on the prevalence of the three most widespread coral diseases in Hawai'i: Montipora white syndrome, Porites growth anomalies and Porites tissue loss syndrome. To predict outbreak likelihood we compared disease prevalence from surveys conducted between 2004 and 2015 from 18 Hawaiian Islands and atolls with biotic (e.g., coral density) and abiotic (satellite-derived sea surface temperature metrics) variables using boosted regression trees. To date, the only coral disease forecast models available were developed for Acropora white syndrome on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Given the complexities of disease etiology, differences in host demography and environmental conditions across reef regions, it is important to refine and adapt such models for different diseases and geographic regions of interest. Similar to the Acropora white syndrome models, anomalously warm conditions were important for predicting Montipora white syndrome, possibly due to a relationship between thermal stress and a compromised host immune system. However, coral density and winter conditions were the most important predictors of all three coral diseases in this study, enabling development of a forecasting system that can predict regions of elevated disease risk up to six months before an expected outbreak. Our research indicates satellite-derived systems for forecasting disease outbreaks can be appropriately adapted from the GBR tools and applied for a variety of diseases in a new region. These models can be used to enhance management capacity to prepare for and respond to emerging coral diseases throughout Hawai'i and can be modified for other diseases and regions around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Links between anomalously high sea temperatures and outbreaks of coral diseases known as White Syndromes (WS) represent a threat to Indo-Pacific reefs that is expected to escalate in a changing climate. Further advances in understanding disease aetiologies, determining the relative importance of potential risk factors for outbreaks and in trialing management actions are hampered by not knowing where or when outbreaks will occur. Here, we develop a tool to target research and monitoring of WS outbreaks in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The tool is based on an empirical regression model and takes the form of user-friendly interactive ~1.5-km resolution maps. The maps denote locations where long-term monitoring suggests that coral cover exceeds 26% and summer temperature stress (measured by a temperature metric termed the mean positive summer anomaly) is equal to or exceeds that experienced at sites in 2002 where the only severe WS outbreaks documented on the GBR to date were observed. No WS outbreaks were subsequently documented at 45 routinely surveyed sites from 2003 to 2008, and model hindcasts for this period indicate that outbreak likelihood was never high. In 2009, the model indicated that outbreak likelihood was high at north-central GBR sites. The results of the regression model and targeted surveys in 2009 revealed that the threshold host density for an outbreak decreases as thermal stress increases, suggesting that bleaching could be a more important precursor to WS outbreaks than previously anticipated, given that bleaching was severe at outbreak sites in 2002 but not at any of the surveyed sites in 2009. The iterative approach used here has led to an improved understanding of disease causation, will facilitate management responses and can be applied to other coral diseases and/or other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This data compilation synthesizes 36 static environmental and spatial variables, and temporally explicit modeled estimates of three major disturbances to coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): (1) coral bleaching, (2) tropical cyclones, and (3) outbreaks of the coral‐eating crown‐of‐thorns starfish Acanthaster cf. solaris. Data are provided on a standardized grid (0.01° × 0.01° ~ 1 × 1 km) for reef locations along the GBR, containing 15,928 pixels and excluding the northernmost sections (<12° S) where empirical data were sparse. This compilation provides a consistent and high‐resolution characterization of the abiotic environment and disturbance regimes for GBR reef locations at a fine spatial scale to be used in the development of complex ecosystem models. Static estimates of environmental variables (e.g., depth, bed shear stress, average temperature, temperature variation) originally developed by the Commonwealth of Australia's Environment Research Facility (CERF) Marine Biodiversity Hub were provided by Geoscience Australia. Annual (1985–2017) disturbance estimates were either interpolated from empirical data (A. cf. solaris), predicted from proxy indicators (e.g., degree heating weeks [DHW] as a proxy for bleaching severity), or explicitly modeled (e.g., wave height model for each cyclone). This data set synthesizes some of the most recent advances in remote sensing and modeling of environmental conditions on the GBR; yet it is not exhaustive and we highlight areas that should be expanded through future research. The characterization of abiotic and disturbance regimes presented here represent an essential tool for the development of complex regional scale models of the GBR; preventing redundancy between working groups and promoting collaboration, innovation, and consistency. When using the data set, we kindly request that you cite this article and/or the articles cited in the reference section, recognizing the work that went into compiling the data together and the original authors' willingness to make it publicly available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pronounced differences exist in the biodiversity and structure of coral reef assemblages with increasing distance from shore, which may be expected given marked cross-shelf gradients in environmental conditions. Cross-shelf variation in the abundance of coral reef organisms is likely to be caused, at least in part, by differences in demography (e.g., growth and survival), though this has rarely been tested. This study quantified growth of three distinct branching coral taxa (Acropora nasuta, Pocillopora spp. and Stylophora pistillata) at six locations on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), encompassing inshore, mid-shelf and outer-shelf reefs. Replicate colonies (0–15 colonies per species, per reef) were stained using Alizarin Red in December 2015 and retrieved one year later to quantify linear extension on replicate branches for each colony. Annual linear extension varied within and among coral taxa, with pronounced differences among reefs. For A. nasuta. and S. pistillata, growth rates were highest at one of the inshore reefs, Orpheus Island. However, inter-reef differences in linear extension were not explained by shelf position. Based on differences in skeletal density, which did vary according to shelf position, branching corals at the inshore sites may actually have higher rates of calcification compared to conspecifics on mid-and outer-shelf reefs. This study shows that growth of branching corals is not lower at inshore sites (and perhaps even higher) compared to sites at mid-shelf and outer reefs, despite generally higher levels of sedimentation and turbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral bleaching, the result of loss of endosymbiotic dinoflagellates, as well as post-bleaching recovery can be exacerbated or mitigated by a range of local factors such as depth, turbidity, and natural or artificial shading providing protection for corals during thermal anomalies. On many reefs, losses in coral cover coincide with increases in upright macroalgae growth. Such shifts in benthic communities are generally viewed as negative, whereby macroalgae can outcompete corals for space, and affect adult coral health and fitness. However, the canopy provided by upright macroalgae could reduce solar irradiance and provide refuge for understorey corals during heat events, decreasing coral bleaching and subsequent mortality. To test this hypothesis, this study manually removed macroalgae from experimental plots on a macroalgae-dominated fringing reef at Magnetic Island in the central inshore region of the Great Barrier Reef, comparing the subsequent bleaching during and recovery following a severe heat stress event. In March 2020, sea surface temperature at Magnetic Island reached 31.4 °C, leading to bleaching. Surveys of coral communities undertaken at the peak of accumulated severe heat stress (DHW of 9.3 °C-weeks) in control and macroalgae removal plots showed that, averaged across coral morphological groups, there was no overall difference in bleaching prevalence in algal-removal and control plots (21.1% and 20.8% of the community bleached; respectively). However, bleaching prevalence varied within morphological groups, with massive morphology corals demonstrating higher probability of bleaching in removal plots compared to controls (0.26 and 0.09, respectively). Bleaching severity (i.e. percent of the colony tissue bleached) was consistent across control and removal plots (83.2% and 80.4% of colony area, respectively, averaged across morphologies), with branching corals demonstrating the lowest severity. Surveys were repeated in July after heat stress had dissipated, with coral communities in algal-removal plots displaying greater recovery than controls (i.e. 86.1% and 75.6% healthy, respectively, model estimated mean averaged across morphologies). Encrusting corals in control plots were the slowest to recover. We conclude that macroalgae provided limited refuge for branching and encrusting corals at the height of the thermal event, likely due to the severity of the accumulated heat stress, while massive corals enjoyed some degree of protection from the canopy. Greater recovery of coral communities in removal plots may potentially be explained by reduced competition with adjacent macroalgae. This study provides important insights into the interactions between these two dominant benthic groups and supports previous work finding macroalgae inhibits coral recovery after severe bleaching events. • Coral bleaching can be mitigated by local factors, including the availability of natural or artificial shading. • Upright macroalgae are known competitors with hard corals, though may provide shade to understory corals. • During the 2020 mass bleaching, removal of algal canopies resulted in increased bleaching for massive morphology corals only. • After thermal stress dissipated, macroalgae inhibited recovery of coral communities. • Algal canopies provided little refuge for resident corals experiencing severe bleaching conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency, intensity, and spatial scale of climate extremes are changing rapidly due to anthropogenic global warming. 1,2 A growing research challenge is to understand how multiple climate-driven disturbances interact with each other over multi-decadal time frames, generating combined effects that cannot be predicted from single events alone. 3–5 Here we examine the emergent dynamics of five coral bleaching events along the 2,300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef that affected >98% of the Reef between 1998 and 2020. We show that the bleaching responses of corals to a given level of heat exposure differed in each event and were strongly influenced by contingency and the spatial overlap and strength of interactions between events. Naive regions that escaped bleaching for a decade or longer were the most susceptible to bouts of heat exposure. Conversely, when pairs of successive bleaching episodes were close together (1–3 years apart), the thermal threshold for severe bleaching increased because the earlier event hardened regions of the Great Barrier Reef to further impacts. In the near future, the biological responses to recurrent bleaching events may become stronger as the cumulative geographic footprint expands further, potentially impairing the stock-recruitment relationships among lightly and severely bleached reefs with diverse recent histories. Understanding the emergent properties and collective dynamics of recurrent disturbances will be critical for predicting spatial refuges and cumulative ecological responses, and for managing the longer-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. • Sequences of climate-driven disturbances have unexpected emergent properties • Thermal thresholds for coral bleaching vary depending on interactions among events • Repeat episodes of extreme temperatures create and later reduce spatial refuges • Shrinking return times between disturbances are eroding ecological resilience. Hughes et al. quantify the extent of five episodes of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef caused by anthropogenic heating. Bleaching thresholds vary spatially and temporally, depending on the ecological memory of preceding events. Recurrent disturbances are generating a dynamic, multi-scale mosaic of locations with different recent histories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]