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Governments employ a range of policy instruments to encourage landholders to adopt land management practices that reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture. While the impact of policy instruments may be well-theorised, their implementation in diverse contexts and landholders' complex behavioural responses, makes measurement and prediction of the resulting adoption rates difficult. This constrains the ability of governments to select the optimal combination of policy instruments. We used a participatory modelling approach to incorporate expert knowledge into a Bayesian network model exploring the effect of different policy combinations on the adoption of sustainable farming practices in the Great Barrier Reef catchment, Australia. The model integrates policy instruments including regulating farming practices, offering financial incentives, and facilitating extension programs to educate and assist farmers. Results showed that the effectiveness of a policy instrument on practice adoption was expected to vary depending on which other instruments are implemented, the characteristics of the land managers, the surrounding social context, and the practice itself. This approach demonstrates the utility of Bayesian networks in integrating high-level multi-disciplinary knowledge to address complex environmental policy decisions such as water quality management in the Great Barrier Reef. ● Impact of agriculture on the Great Barrier Reef can be reduced using policy instruments. ● Interactions between instruments for practice adoption are currently poorly understood. ● Mechanisms influencing the impact of policy instruments were explored using an expert-derived Bayesian network. ● Regulations, financial incentives, extension, governance and communication were considered. ● The model facilitates scenario analysis to help to inform policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems have always been shaped by disturbances, but many of these events are becoming larger, more severe and more frequent. The recovery capacity of depleted populations depends on the frequency of disturbances, the spatial distribution of mortality and the scale of dispersal. Here, we show that four mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (in 1998, 2002, 2016 and 2017) each had markedly larger disturbance footprints and were less patchy than a severe category 5 tropical cyclone (Cyclone Yasi, 2011). Severely bleached reefs in 2016 and 2017 were isolated from the nearest lightly affected reefs by up to 146 and 200 km, respectively. In contrast, reefs damaged by Cyclone Yasi were on average 20 km away from relatively undisturbed reefs, well within the estimated range of larval dispersal for most corals. Based on these results, we present a model of coral reef disturbance and recovery to examine (1) how the spatial clustering of disturbances modifies large‐scale recovery rates; and (2) how recovery rates are shaped by species' dispersal abilities. Our findings illustrate that the spatial footprint of the recent mass bleaching events poses an unprecedented threat to the resilience of coral species in human history, a threat that is even larger than the amount of mortality suggests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Well-managed and enforced no-take marine reserves generate important larval subsidies to neighboring habitats and thereby contribute to the long-term sustainability of fisheries. However, larval dispersal patterns are variable, which leads to temporal fluctuations in the contribution of a single reserve to the replenishment of local populations. Identifying management strategies that mitigate the uncertainty in larval supply will help ensure the stability of recruitment dynamics and minimize the volatility in fishery catches. Here, we use genetic parentage analysis to show extreme variability in both the dispersal patterns and recruitment contribution of four individual marine reserves across six discrete recruitment cohorts for coral grouper (Plectropomus maculatus) on the Great Barrier Reef. Together, however, the asynchronous contributions from multiple reserves create temporal stability in recruitment via a connectivity portfolio effect. This dampening effect reduces the variability in larval supply from individual reserves by a factor of 1.8, which effectively halves the uncertainty in the recruitment contribution of individual reserves. Thus, not only does the network of four marine reserves generate valuable larval subsidies to neighboring habitats, the aggregate effect of individual reserves mitigates temporal fluctuations in dispersal patterns and the replenishment of local populations. Our results indicate that small networks of marine reserves yield previously unrecognized stabilizing benefits that ensure a consistent larval supply to replenish exploited fish stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Dispersal kernels are the standard method in biology for describing and predicting the relationship between dispersal and distance. Statistically fitted dispersal kernels allow observations of a limited number of dispersal events to be extrapolated across a wider landscape, and form the basis of a wide range of theories and methods in ecology, evolution and conservation. Genetic parentage data are an increasingly common source of dispersal information, particularly for species where dispersal is difficult to observe directly. In particular, parentage analysis is now routinely applied to coral reef fish, whose larvae can potentially disperse over many kilometres, and are too small to track in situ. It is not straightforward to estimate dispersal kernels from parentage data, and existing methods all have substantial limitations. These include the omission of important population processes such as density‐dependent mortality, and data on unassigned juveniles. Here we develop and proof a new likelihood estimator for fitting dispersal kernels to parentage data, applying it to simulated parentage datasets for coral reef fish on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The method incorporates a series of factors not previously considered in other methods: the partial sampling of adults and juveniles on sampled sites; the existence of unassigned dispersers from unsampled habitat patches; and post‐settlement processes (e.g. density‐dependent mortality) that follow dispersal but precede parentage sampling. Including these additional factors requires an estimate of adult populations on unsampled habitat patches, but the result is a superior estimate of dispersal kernels and mean dispersal distances. Our power analyses suggest that the parentage datasets currently available for reef fishes are large enough to fit accurate dispersal kernels. Based on the analyses in one particular region of the GBR, parentage sampling should be distributed equally between adults and juveniles, and should sample more than 3% of the adult population. However, while the resulting dispersal kernels offer reasonable estimates of mean dispersal, they fail to capture important variation in realistic dispersal patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclical outbreaks of pests can impact the functioning of entire ecosystems. An eminent example is outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish ( COTS; Acanthaster planci) that cause substantial coral mortality on the Great Barrier Reef ( GBR)., We analyse COTS abundance and outbreaks with a Bayesian spatiotemporal model applied to a long-term survey of the GBR (1985-2014). We assess the relative increase in COTS abundance beyond that explained by a reef's location and explanatory covariates, and thereby incorporate local reef characteristics into the identification of outbreaks, while allowing for both randomness and predictable patterns in the development of outbreaks., The model results confirm that waves of COTS outbreaks originate near Lizard Island (14·67⁰S) and progress in a northwesterly or southeasterly direction, with the southward wave progressing about 60 km year−1., The model reveals several previously unidentified hotspots with high average COTS abundance. The abundance of COTS may also have decreased on reefs protected from fishing after an expansion of protected areas within the GBR Marine Park in 2004, which suggests that closing reefs to fishing may help control COTS., Synthesis and applications. In this study, we use 30 years of data from the Great Barrier Reef to show that the timing and geographic location of crown-of-thorns starfish ( COTS) outbreaks can be modelled by incorporating covariates, spatial and spatiotemporal dependence within a single coherent framework. The model can be used to identify areas of high average COTS abundance, to assess the impact of fishery management actions such as no-take areas and to identify areas where waves of outbreaks may originate. The identification of outbreaks from noisy long-term spatially extensive data may help managers choose appropriate control strategies. This modelling approach is applicable to other ecosystems where outbreaks of damaging pests occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Larval dispersal is the key process by which populations of most marine fishes and invertebrates are connected and replenished. Advances in larval tagging and genetics have enhanced our capacity to track larval dispersal, assess scales of population connectivity, and quantify larval exchange among no-take marine reserves and fished areas. Recent studies have found that reserves can be a significant source of recruits for populations up to 40 km away, but the scale and direction of larval connectivity across larger seascapes remain unknown. Here, we apply genetic parentage analysis to investigate larval dispersal patterns for two exploited coral reef groupers ( Plectropomus maculatus and Plectropomus leopardus) within and among three clusters of reefs separated by 60-220 km within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. A total of 69 juvenile P. maculatus and 17 juvenile P. leopardus (representing 6% and 9% of the total juveniles sampled, respectively) were genetically assigned to parent individuals on reefs within the study area. We identified both short-distance larval dispersal within regions (200 m to 50 km) and long-distance, multidirectional dispersal of up to ~250 km among regions. Dispersal strength declined significantly with distance, with best-fit dispersal kernels estimating median dispersal distances of ~110 km for P. maculatus and ~190 km for P. leopardus. Larval exchange among reefs demonstrates that established reserves form a highly connected network and contribute larvae for the replenishment of fished reefs at multiple spatial scales. Our findings highlight the potential for long-distance dispersal in an important group of reef fishes, and provide further evidence that effectively protected reserves can yield recruitment and sustainability benefits for exploited fish populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quality of water entering the coastal waters of the Great Barrier Reef continues to be of urgent concern for policy makers. Beef grazing and sugarcane cultivation pose special threats at the catchment scale, and past policy approaches and millions in investment have largely proved insufficient to reverse the associated decline in water quality. In this paper, we examine the role of regulation - as one tool of governance - in addressing threats to water quality to the Great Barrier Reef. By adopting a focused study of sugarcane and cattle grazing, and by drawing upon recent developments in regulatory theory, we evaluate the approaches adopted by government, including the recent re-introduction of legislative measures targeting nutrient and sediment loads. Scientific and government consensus appears to be that regulation should form part of a functioning environmental governance system, but it must also be supported by other measures such as economic incentives, education and outreach. Where regulation of land use is required, best practice suggests it should be risk-based, responsive, and cognisant of the regulated industry's attitudinal settings. • Addressing water quality of the Great Barrier Reef requires an effective mix of policy instruments. • Regulatory interventions should support non-regulatory instruments to encourage behavioral change. • Where regulation is adopted, it should be risk-based, responsive, and cognizant of the industry's attitudinal settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coexistence of multiple species on a smaller number of limiting resources is an enduring ecological paradox. The mechanisms that maintain such biodiversity are of great interest to ecology and of central importance to conservation. We describe and prove a unique and robust mechanism for coexistence: Species that differ only in their dispersal abilities can coexist, if habitat patches are distributed at irregular distances. This mechanism is straightforward and ecologically intuitive, but can nevertheless create complex coexistence patterns that are robust to substantial environmental stochasticity. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is noted for its diversity of reef fish species and its complex arrangement of reef habitat. We demonstrate that this mechanism can allow fish species with different pelagic larval durations to stably coexist in the GBR. Further, coexisting species on the GBR often dominate different subregions, defined primarily by cross-shelf position. Interspecific differences in dispersal ability generate similar coexistence patterns when dispersal is influenced by larval behavior and variable oceanographic conditions. Many marine and terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by patchy habitat distributions and contain coexisting species that have different dispersal abilities. This coexistence mechanism is therefore likely to have ecological relevance beyond reef fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]