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The transport sector has to be widely decarbonized by 2050 to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. This can be performed with different drive trains and energy carriers. This paper explored four pathways to a carbon-free transport sector in Germany in 2050 with foci on electricity, hydrogen, synthetic methane, or liquid synthetic fuels. We used a transport demand model for future vehicle use and a simulation model for the determination of alternative fuel vehicle market shares. We found a large share of electric vehicles in all scenarios, even in the scenarios with a focus on other fuels. In all scenarios, the final energy consumption decreased significantly, most strongly when the focus was on electricity and almost one-third lower in primary energy demand compared with the other scenarios. A further decrease of energy demand is possible with an even faster adoption of electric vehicles, yet fuel cost then has to be even higher or electricity prices lower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from the transport sector. However, the limited electric range of PEVs could impede their market introduction. Still some potential users are willing to pay more for PEVs. The combined effect of these and other influencing factors as well as the resulting future market evolution are unclear. Here, we study the market evolution of PEVs in Germany until 2020. Our results reveal a great deal of uncertainty in the market evolution of PEVs due to external conditions and the users’ willingness to pay. We find the future share of PEVs in German passenger car stock to range from 0.4% to almost 3% by 2020. Energy prices have a large impact on PEV market evolution as a 25% increase in fuel prices would double the number of PEVs in stock by 2020 compared to a reference scenario. We find a special depreciation allowance for commercial vehicles and a subsidy of 1000 Euro as the most effective and efficient monetary policy options. The high uncertainty of the market evolution implies that policies to foster market diffusion of PEVs should be dynamically adaptable to react to changing framework conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Potential environmental as well as socio-economic effects of the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape (OSR) may be caused by large-scale dispersal of transgenes. We present an up-scaling approach that was based on scenario assumptions concerning the percentage of GM cultivation and took into account natural and anthropogenic variation of involved dispersal processes. The applied methods include computer modelling and spatial analysis. A simulation model (GeneTraMP) was used to calculate the spatio-temporal pattern of the spread of a neutral transgene (without any specific function) in OSR. Basic scenario calculations were carried out for different spatial configurations covering 1km2 each and taking into account information on climate and cultivation systems of the region of the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. For the exemplary regional study presented here, we analysed the numbers of flowering plants of GM OSR in different types of locations as predicted by the model. The results confirmed the expectation of a very high variability of GM occurrences at distinguishable intensity levels which were closely related to the proximity of areas of intended GM oilseed rape cultivation and may be described by a combination of management parameters and location type. The up-scaling method included a spatial analysis of the target region. Based on satellite images and digital maps, the structure of the region was analysed resulting in a map of Schleswig-Holstein that represents each single field, also including information on crop rotation, ownership and production systems. Applying GIS queries to this database, we identified the area of relevant location types. Both, the model results and the spatial data were used to predict the total numbers of flowering GM OSR plants for the region of Schleswig-Holstein. As an important feature, the up-scaling of modelling results to a larger scale allows for a comprehensive analysis by also enclosing regional parameters, as, for example the cropping density. The presented methods can support decision making if they are incorporated into the planning of an environmental monitoring of commercial GM crops or into life cycle assessment and cost–benefit analyses of GMO cultivation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Question: The prominent role of wind dispersal in alpine habitats has been recognized early but has rarely been quantified. The aim of this study is to compare wind dispersal under alpine and lowland conditions and to analyse whether differences are caused by species traits, e.g. terminal velocity of seeds (Vterm) or weather conditions. Location and Methods: We characterized wind dispersal potential of >1100 Central European species using measured Vterm. To quantify the habitat effect on wind dispersal, we measured meteorological key-parameters and simulated dispersal distance spectra of nine selected species under typical alpine conditions (foreland of the Scaletta-glacier, Switzerland) and typical lowland conditions (grassland in Bad Lippspringe, Germany). Results: Lowland species had higher Vterm compared to alpine species. However, this difference is absent when only species of species of open habitats are concerned. The meteorological measurements showed that the alpine habitat was mainly characterized by higher frequency and strength of updrafts. The simulations showed that under alpine conditions long distance dispersal occurred much more frequent. Conclusions: More than 50% of the alpine species have a fair chance to be dispersed by wind over long distances, while this proportion is less than 25% for species from open habitats in the lowland. The more prominent role of wind dispersal in alpine habitats is mainly a result of differences in environmental conditions, namely more intense vertical turbulence in the alpine habitat, and does not result from prominent differences in plant traits, namely Vterm, between alpine and lowland species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In the first attempt to re-establish a population of the red-winged grasshopper, Oedipoda germanica (Latr.), threatened with extinction in Germany, 32 adults (19 females, 13 males) were taken from a population in a limestone quarry, individually marked, and translocated to the “Leutratal” nature reserve near Jena, Thuringia, formerly inhabited by the species. A simulation model with two scenarios was run to determine the probability of re-establishment of this small translocated population. One of the two scenarios indicated that populations of 20 females could survive with optimal life history parameters. In 1994, the year of translocation, during seven nights of observation between July and September, 25 adults were re-observed at least once. About 50% of the females and 70% of the males were found in a 20m radius of the release point, whereas a maximum distance of about 70m was recorded for a female. Using minimum female life-span and oviposition data from greenhouse experiments, 545 eggs were estimated to have been laid by the initial inoculum in 1994. In the subsequent years 1995 and 1996, only seven and three grasshoppers were observed within 30m of the release point in 1994. However, the translocated population obviously went extinct in 1997 because no O. germanica could be found in that or following years. By comparing source and release habitat, the possible causes of the failed re-establishment were elucidated. In the year of release a short mean adult life span of 26 days was observed, assumed to be the consequence of high predation, and resulting in a lower reproductive rate. In the following years, low soil temperature of the release habitat probably delayed egg hatching for about 1 week, delaying phenology and thereby reducing the period over which eggs could be laid. A rapid population decline resulted in only three females found in the year before extinction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We investigate the economic benefits of fundamental forest ecosystem services (FES) for the population in Germany at national level in monetary terms and estimate the spatial distribution of these benefits at county level. Specifically, we consider the benefits of timber production, of global climate protection due to carbon sequestration, of recreation for local residents, and of services for nature protection and landscape amenity. Combining information from official statistics and data from valuation studies that are compatible with economic demand theory, we identify spatial drivers of FES benefits and derive generic valuation functions for each of the services. Using a Geographic Information System, these valuation functions are applied to the conditions in the Local Administrative Units (municipalities), resulting in Benefit Function Transfer estimates for each service and each municipality. Afterwards, results are aggregated to NUTS-3 level (counties) and mapped. Aggregate annual benefits of timber production to society as a whole, of climate protection and of recreation services together exceed the ten billion Euro mark—far more than what is reflected in market statistics. Scenarios illustrate the potential for enhancing nature protection benefits particularly by restoring forest biodiversity, as measured by an avifaunistic indicator. The spatial analysis reveals distinct distributional patterns for each of the services. We conclude that a spatially explicit valuation for an entire country is possible even with limited data, which can help policy makers improve the institutional setting in a way that the protection and use of the forests become more sustainable and efficient. After pointing at several caveats, we finally suggest various possibilities for further model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have dramatically changed the treatment paradigm. Our aim was to project temporal trends in HCV diagnosis, treatment and disease burden in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK., Design: A mathematical simulation model of natural history of HCV infection., Participants: HCV-infected patients defined based on country-specific age, fibrosis and genotype distributions., Interventions: HCV screening practice and availability of different waves of DAA treatment in each country., Outcome Measures: Temporal trends in the number of patients who achieve sustained virological response (SVR), fail treatment (by drug regimen) and develop advanced sequelae from 2014 to 2030 in each country., Results: We projected that 1 324 000 individuals would receive treatment from 2014 to 2030 in the five European countries and 12 000-37 000 of them would fail to achieve SVR. By 2021, the number of individuals cured of HCV would supersede the number of actively infected individuals in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Under status quo, the diagnosis rate would reach between 65% and 75% and treatment coverage between 65% and 74% by 2030 in these countries. The number of patients who fail treatment would decrease over time, with the majority of those who fail treatment having been exposed to non-structural protein 5A inhibitors., Conclusions: In the era of DAAs, the number of people with HCV who achieved a cure will exceed the number of viraemic patients, but many patients will remain undiagnosed, untreated, fail multiple treatments and develop advanced sequelae. Scaling-up screening and treatment capacity, and timely and effective retreatment are needed to avail the full benefits of DAAs and to meet HCV elimination targets set by WHO., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JC received research grants and consulting fee from Gilead Science and Merck. TA received consulting fee from Gilead Sciences. SF has servered a speaker for Gilead Sciences, MSD, Abbvie, Bristol–Myers Squibb, Novartis, Bayer and Janssen. All other authors have nothing to report., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aim: The aim of this paper is to develop a simulation model that analyzes cost-offsets of a hypothetical disease management program (DMP) for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Germany compared to no such program., Methods: A lifetime Markov model with simulated 65-year-old patients with CKD was developed using published data on costs and health status and simulating the progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular disease and death. A statutory health insurance perspective was adopted., Results: This modeling study shows considerable potential for cost-offsets from a DMP for patients with CKD. The potential for cost-offsets increases with relative risk reduction by the DMP and baseline glomerular filtration rate. Results are most sensitive to the cost of dialysis treatment., Conclusion: This paper presents a general 'prototype' simulation model for the prevention of ESRD. The model allows for further modification and adaptation in future applications.

This paper traces plastics streams through the German economy. A material flow simulation model is used to analyze the production of plastics products, their use and residence times in the economy and finally to calculate the present and future amounts of waste. We find thatthere is an indirect net export of plastics products incorporated infinal products which amounts to 3/6% of domestic consumption. Residence times of plastics products range from a few months to 30 years and more, with the weighted average amounting to 14 years. In Germany, total post-consumer plastics waste will rise from 4.6 Mt in 1995 to 6.2/7.2 Mt in 2005 and could easily reach a value in the range of 12/14 Mt in 2025. At the same time, the accumulation of plastics in the economy will increase from about 72 Mt in 1995 to 180 Mt in 2025 in the business-as-usual scenario. The share of waste from long-lived products will continue to grow in the next decades. For polyolefins, PVC and polystyrene in plastics waste, we expect that the total amounts will more than double within the next 25 years. Analyses as presented in this paper can help to establish strategic waste management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]