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Examines the informational efficiency of the market for options on the German stock index DAX. Analysis of ex-post and ex-ante efficiency tests on the lower-boundary violations; Determination of trading strategies exploiting irrational lower-boundary violations of option prices; Impact of delaying arbitrage strategies on ex-post profits.

Abstract: Palaeogenetic investigations in three geographically close caves (Hohle Fels, Geißenklösterle, and Sirgenstein) in the Ach Valley near Blaubeuren (Swabian Jura) document the sudden replacement of Ursus spelaeus by Ursus ingressus around 28,000 14C BP. New radiocarbon dates suggest an earlier immigration of Ursus ingressus and at least a partial coexistence with Ursus spelaeus some 4500 years before the ultimate replacement. These two genetic types of cave bears used the same caves for hibernation and had the same herbivorous diet, as shown by the stable isotope results. In contrast, sympatric brown bears (Ursus arctos) exhibited a clearly different ecology, as shown by the carnivorous pattern of their isotopic signatures, and probably did not use the caves as dens before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Once established, the younger cave bear (Ursus ingressus) remained the only cave bear for only another circa 2000 years after the last appearance of the classical cave bear (Ursus spelaeus) in the Ach Valley and elsewhere. The final appearance of cave bear (sensu lato) is now dated to 25,560 ± 130 BP, disproving a refuge area of this species in the Swabian Jura. After the extinction of cave bears (sensu lato), brown bears took over their cave dens and their nutritional niche as they shift to a diet dominated by plant food. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Within the last decade, archaeogenetic analysis has revolutionized archaeological research and enabled novel insights into mobility, relatedness and health of past societies. Now, it is possible to develop these results further and integrate archaeogenetic insights into biological relatedness with radiocarbon dates as means of chronologically sequenced information. In our article, we demonstrate the potential of combining relative chronological information with absolute radiocarbon dates by Bayesian interpretation in order to improve age determinations. Using artificial pedigrees with four sets of simulated radiocarbon dates we show that the combination of relationship information with radiocarbon dates improves the age determination in many cases at least between 20 to 50%. Calibrated age ranges are more constrained than simply calibrating radiocarbon ages independently from each other. Thereby, the precision of modelled ages depends on the precision of the single radiocarbon dates, the number of modelled generations, the shape of the calibration curve and the availability of samples that can be precisely fixed in time due to specific patterns in the calibration curve ("anchor points"). Ambiguous calibrated radiocarbon dates, which are caused by inversions of the calibration curve, can be partly or almost entirely resolved through Bayesian modelling based upon information from pedigrees. Finally, we discuss selected case studies of biological pedigrees achieved for Early Bronze Age Southern Germany by recent archaeogenetic analysis, whereby the sites and pedigrees differ with regard to the quality of information, which can be used for a Bayesian model of the radiocarbon dates. In accordance with the abstract models, radiocarbon dates can again be better constrained and are therefore more applicable for archaeological interpretation and chronological placement of the dated individuals., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Revealing and understanding the mechanisms behind social inequality in prehistoric societies is a major challenge. By combining genome-wide data, isotopic evidence, and anthropological and archaeological data, we have gone beyond the dominating supraregional approaches in archaeogenetics to shed light on the complexity of social status, inheritance rules, and mobility during the Bronze Age. We applied a deep microregional approach and analyzed genome-wide data of 104 human individuals deriving from farmstead-related cemeteries from the Late Neolithic to the Middle Bronze Age in southern Germany. Our results reveal individual households, lasting several generations, that consisted of a high-status core family and unrelated low-status individuals; a social organization accompanied by patrilocality and female exogamy; and the stability of this system over 700 years., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)