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Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods regularly affect the Mediterranean coastal regions. In these situations, forecasting rainfall and river discharges is crucial especially up to 6 h, which is a relevant lead time for emergency services in times of crisis. The present study investigates the hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems: a numerical weather model AROME-NWC and a nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation called PIAF. Their performance is assessed for 10 past heavy precipitation events that occurred in southeastern France. Precipitation forecasts are evaluated at a 15- min time resolution and the availability times of forecasts, based on the operational Météo-France suites, are taken into account when performing the evaluation. Rainfall observations and forecasts were first compared using a point-to-point approach. Then the evaluation was conducted from an hydrological point of view, by comparing observed and forecast precipitation over watersheds affected by floods. In general, the results led to the same conclusions for both evaluations. On the very first lead times, up to 1 h 15 min and 1 h 30 min of forecast, the performance of PIAF was higher than AROME-NWC. For longer lead times (up to 3 h) their performances were generally equivalent. An assessment of river discharges simulated with the ISBA-TOP coupled system, which is dedicated to Mediterranean flash flood simulations and driven by AROME-NWC and PIAF rainfall forecasts, was also performed on two exceptional past flash flood events. The results obtained for these two events show that using AROME-NWC or PIAF rainfall forecasts is promising for flash flood forecasting in terms of peak intensity, timing, and first wave of discharge, with an anticipation of these phenomena that can reach several hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study assesses the impacts of two grid resolutions and the descriptors of soil texture and land cover on flash-flood modelling at local and basin scales. The ISBA-TOP coupled system, which is dedicated to Mediterranean flash-flood simulations, is used with two grid-cell sizes (300 and 1000 m), two soil texture datasets, and two land use databases to model 12 past flash-flood events in southeastern France. The skill of the hydrological simulations is assessed using conventional data (discharge measurements from operational networks) and proxy data such as post-event surveys and high-water marks. The results show significant differences between the experiments in terms of both the simulated river discharge and the spatial runoff, whether at the catchment scale or at the local scale. The spatial resolution has the largest impact on the hydrological simulations. In this study, it is also shown that the soil texture has a larger impact on the results than the land cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many years real-time climate monitoring for temperature over France has been performed using a national index built by averaging the daily mean temperatures of constant subset of 30 stations with long-term series. In order to derive climate indices at finer scales, a spatialization of extreme daily temperatures (called ANASTASIA) had been produced on a 1 km regular grid using a regression-kriging method. The production covers 1947 to present period. Cross-validation shows low biases after the 1960s. The temporal homogeneity of the product is satisfying at the national scale from the 1970s. However, a high impact of the network density has been found and the use of a too coarse observation network deteriorates the analysis creating temporal heterogeneities. Finally, the ANASTASIA analysis has been used for real-time monitoring over France and detection of heat and cold wave episodes. The new products based on ANASTASIA are consistent with the current operational ones at national scale while bringing added values at local scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The ISBA land surface model and a version of the TOPMODEL hydrological model have been coupled to simulate Mediterranean flash-floods. This coupling makes use of the watershed topography to compute the sub-surface lateral water fluxes and spatial and temporal dynamics of the saturated areas, following the TOPMODEL principles. The ISBA model governs the overall water budget and estimates the runoff supplied to the flow routing model. When applied to six flash-flooding events that occurred recently over South-eastern France the coupled system proved its ability to better forecast both timing and intensity of the flood peaks compared with the ISBA model used alone. To highlight further the differences between the two systems, an idealized framework was set up. The benefit of using ISBA–TOPMODEL instead of the ISBA model alone is clearly shown and leads to more physically consistent soil moisture and discharge simulations. The coupled system is able to simulate soil moisture and discharges that are not only governed by the rainfall, but also by the topography of the watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]