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Short-range forecasts (nowcasts) of rainfall facilitate providing early warning of severe rainfall and flooding, which is particularly important in densely populated urban areas. Nowcasts are conventionally obtained by the extrapolation of radar echoes from a constant altitude plan position indicator (CAPPI) or lowest-angle plan position indicator (PPI). Lacking a model for growth or decay, this approach has a limited ability to forecast the summertime convective storms. In a previous attempt to address this shortcoming, called RadVil, the predicted surface rain rate is obtained from mass balance equations of vertically integrated liquid (VIL) retrieved from volumetric reflectivity measurements. Predicting the growth and decay has also been attempted by using an autoregressive (AR) model, which led to the development of spectral prognosis (S-PROG). A novel combination of these two methodologies, called ANVIL, is proposed. In this approach, the growth and decay of VIL are modeled by an autoregressive integrated (ARI) process. It is shown that the predictability of growth and decay is scale-dependent. Thus, the key idea of ANVIL is to decompose the VIL into multiple spatial scales and apply a separate ARI model to each scale. The operational feasibility of ANVIL is evaluated using the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD)/WSR-88D radar that covers the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area. The evaluation is done using ten convective events in 2018 and 2019. Using several verification metrics, it is shown that ANVIL has up to 25% improved skill compared to conventional nowcasting techniques. The improvement is consistent for a wide range of spatial scales (1–11 km) and rain rate thresholds (5–20 mmh−1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowcasts (short-term forecasts) of heavy rainfall causing flash floods are highly valuable in densely populated urban areas. In the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) project, a high-resolution X-band radar network was deployed in the Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex. The Dynamic and Adaptive Radar Tracking of Storms (DARTS) method was developed as a part of the CASA nowcasting system. In this method, the advection field is determined in the spectral domain using the discrete Fourier transform. DARTS was recently extended to include a filtering scheme for suppressing small-scale precipitation features that have low predictability. Building on the earlier work, Stochastic DARTS (S-DARTS), a probabilistic extension of DARTS, is developed and tested using the CASA DFW radar network. In this method, the nowcasts are stochastically perturbed in order to simulate uncertainties. Two novel features are introduced in S-DARTS. First, the scale filtering and perturbation based on an autoregressive model are done in the spectral domain in order to achieve high computational efficiency. Second, this methodology is extended to modeling the temporal evolution of the advection field. The performance and forecast skill of S-DARTS are evaluated with different precipitation intensity thresholds and ensemble sizes. It is shown that S-DARTS can produce reliable probabilistic nowcasts in the CASA DFW domain with 250-m spatial resolution up to 45 min for lower precipitation intensities (below 2 mm h−1). For higher intensities (above 5 mm h−1), adequate skill can be obtained up to 15 min. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]