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Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a pandemic that is straining healthcare resources, mainly hospital beds. Multiple risk factors of disease progression requiring hospitalization have been identified, but medical decision-making remains complex. Objective: To characterize a large cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, their outcomes, develop and validate a statistical model that allows individualized prediction of future hospitalization risk for a patient newly diagnosed with COVID-19. Design: Retrospective cohort study of patients with COVID-19 applying a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression algorithm to retain the most predictive features for hospitalization risk, followed by validation in a temporally distinct patient cohort. The final model was displayed as a nomogram and programmed into an online risk calculator. Setting: One healthcare system in Ohio and Florida. Participants: All patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 between March 8, 2020 and June 5, 2020. Those tested before May 1 were included in the development cohort, while those tested May 1 and later comprised the validation cohort. Measurements: Demographic, clinical, social influencers of health, exposure risk, medical co-morbidities, vaccination history, presenting symptoms, medications, and laboratory values were collected on all patients, and considered in our model development. Results: 4,536 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period. Of those, 958 (21.1%) required hospitalization. By day 3 of hospitalization, 24% of patients were transferred to the intensive care unit, and around half of the remaining patients were discharged home. Ten patients died. Hospitalization risk was increased with older age, black race, male sex, former smoking history, diabetes, hypertension, chronic lung disease, poor socioeconomic status, shortness of breath, diarrhea, and certain medications (NSAIDs, immunosuppressive treatment). Hospitalization risk was reduced with prior flu vaccination. Model discrimination was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.900 (95% confidence interval of 0.886–0.914) in the development cohort, and 0.813 (0.786, 0.839) in the validation cohort. The scaled Brier score was 42.6% (95% CI 37.8%, 47.4%) in the development cohort and 25.6% (19.9%, 31.3%) in the validation cohort. Calibration was very good. The online risk calculator is freely available and found at https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/. Limitation: Retrospective cohort design. Conclusion: Our study crystallizes published risk factors of COVID-19 progression, but also provides new data on the role of social influencers of health, race, and influenza vaccination. In a context of a pandemic and limited healthcare resources, individualized outcome prediction through this nomogram or online risk calculator can facilitate complex medical decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare workers (HCW) is crucial., Objective: Utilizing a health system COVID-19 research registry, we assessed HCW risk for COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission., Design: Retrospective cohort study with overlap propensity score weighting., Participants: Individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large academic healthcare system (N = 72,909) from March 8-June 9, 2020, stratified by HCW and patient-facing status., Main Measures: SARS-CoV-2 test result, hospitalization, and ICU admission for COVID-19 infection., Key Results: Of 72,909 individuals tested, 9.0% (551) of 6145 HCW tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared to 6.5% (4353) of 66,764 non-HCW. The HCW were younger than the non-HCW (median age 39.7 vs. 57.5, p < 0.001) with more females (proportion of males 21.5 vs. 44.9%, p < 0.001), higher reporting of COVID-19 exposure (72 vs. 17%, p < 0.001), and fewer comorbidities. However, the overlap propensity score weighted proportions were 8.9 vs. 7.7 for HCW vs. non-HCW having a positive test with weighted odds ratio (OR) 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.99-1.38. Among those testing positive, weighted proportions for hospitalization were 7.4 vs. 15.9 for HCW vs. non-HCW with OR of 0.42 (CI 0.26-0.66) and for ICU admission: 2.2 vs. 4.5 for HCW vs. non-HCW with OR of 0.48 (CI 0.20-1.04). Those HCW identified as patient facing compared to not had increased odds of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (OR 1.60, CI 1.08-2.39, proportions 8.6 vs. 5.5), but no statistically significant increase in hospitalization (OR 0.88, CI 0.20-3.66, proportions 10.2 vs. 11.4) and ICU admission (OR 0.34, CI 0.01-3.97, proportions 1.8 vs. 5.2)., Conclusions: In a large healthcare system, HCW had similar odds for testing SARS-CoV-2 positive, but lower odds of hospitalization compared to non-HCW. Patient-facing HCW had higher odds of a positive test. These results are key to understanding HCW risk mitigation during the COVID-19 pandemic.