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Two linear methods, including the simple linear addition and linear addition by expansion, and numerical simulations were employed to estimate storm surges and associated flooding caused by Hurricane Andrew for scenarios of sea level rise (SLR) from 0.15 m to 1.05 m with an interval of 0.15 m. The interaction between storm surge and SLR is almost linear at the open Atlantic Ocean outside Biscayne Bay, with slight reduction in peak storm surge heights as sea level rises. The nonlinear interaction between storm surges and SLR is weak in Biscayne Bay, leading to small differences in peak storm surge heights estimated by three methods. Therefore, it is appropriate to estimate elevated storm surges caused by SLR in these areas by adding the SLR magnitude to storm surge heights. However, the magnitude and extent of inundation at the mainland area by Biscayne Bay estimated by numerical simulations are, respectively, 22-24 % and 16-30 % larger on average than those generated by the linear addition by expansion and the simple linear addition methods, indicating a strong nonlinear interaction between storm surge and SLR. The population and property affected by the storm surge inundation estimated by numerical simulations differ up to 50-140 % from that estimated by two linear addition methods. Therefore, it is inappropriate to estimate the exacerbated magnitude and extent of storm surge flooding and affected population and property caused by SLR by using the linear addition methods. The strong nonlinear interaction between surge flooding and SLR at a specific location occurs at the initial stage of SLR when the water depth under an elevated sea level is less than 0.7 m, while the interaction becomes linear as the depth exceeds 0.7 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of simulating surge inundation using the Eulerian-Lagrangian circulation (ELCIRC) model over multi-scale unstructured grids was examined in this study. The large domain model grid encompasses the western North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea to appropriately account for remote and resonance effects during hurricane events and simplify the specification of the open boundary condition. The U.S. East and Gulf Coasts were divided into 12 overlapping basins with fine-resolution (up to 30 × 30 m) grids to model overland surge flooding. These overlapping basins have different fine-resolution grids near the coastal region, but have an identical coarse-resolution grid in the offshore region within the large model domain. Thus, the storm surge prediction can be conducted without reducing computation efficiency by executing multiple model runs with local fine-resolution grids where potential hurricane landfalls may occur. The capability of the multi-scale approach was examined by simulating storm surge caused by Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Isabel (2003) along the South Florida coast and in the Chesapeake Bay. Comparisons between simulated and observed results suggest that multi-scale models proficiently simulated storm surges in the Biscayne Bay and the Chesapeake Bay during two hurricanes. A series of sensitivity tests demonstrated that the simulation of surge flooding was improved when LiDAR topographic data and special bottom drag coefficient values for mangrove forests were employed. The tests also showed that appropriate representation of linear hydrologic features is important for computing surge inundation in an urban area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accuracy of predicting storm surge inundation depends on the model grid resolution. The spatial resolutions of many storm surge models are on the order of hundreds of meters to kilometers, which are not sufficient to resolve irregular shorelines and small topographic features. In this paper, storm surge and inundation simulation for Hurricane Andrew of 1992 was carried out with the unstructured tidal, residual, intertidal mudflat (UnTRIM) hydrodynamic model. A high-resolution unstructured grid with cell sizes as small as 20 m was placed over the Key Biscayne Bay area near Miami to better represent irregular shorelines and small morphological features such as barrier islands, rivers, canals, and inlets. A series of experiments was conducted to test model performance with respect to model grid resolution, time step selection, open boundary condition specification, and tidal influence. Results show that the model simulated maximum surge heights and areas of inundation along the Biscayne Bay coast very well, indicating that the UnTRIM model is useful in simulating storm surge flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Knowledge of estuarine hydrodynamics and water quality comes mostly from studies of large estuarine systems. The processes affecting algae, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen (DO) in small and shallow subtropical estuaries are relatively less studied. This paper documents the development, calibration, and verification of a three dimensional (3D) water quality model for the St. Lucie Estuary (SLE), a small and shallow estuary located on the east coast of south Florida. The water quality model is calibrated and verified using two years of measured data. Statistical analyses indicate that the model is capable of reproducing key water quality characteristics of the estuary within an acceptable range of accuracy. The calibrated model is further applied to study hydrodynamic and eutrophication processes in the estuary. Modeling results reveal that high algae concentrations in the estuary are likely caused by excessive nutrient and algae supplies in freshwater inflows. While algal blooms may lead to reduced DO concentrations near the bottom of the waterbody, this study indicates that stratification and circulation induced by freshwater inflows may also contribute significantly to bottom water hypoxia in the estuary. It is also found that high freshwater inflows from one of the tributaries can change the circulation pattern and nutrient loading, thereby impacting water quality conditions of the entire estuary. Restoration plans for the SLE ecosystem need to consider both a reduction of nutrient loading and regulation of the freshwater discharge pattern. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Field observations and numerical simulations indicate that the 6-to-30-km-wide mangrove forest along the Gulf Coast of South Florida effectively attenuated storm surges from a Category 3 hurricane, Wilma, and protected the inland wetland by reducing an inundation area of 1800 km2 and restricting surge inundation inside the mangrove zone. The surge amplitude decreases at a rate of 40–50 cm/km across the mangrove forest and at a rate of 20 cm/km across the areas with a mixture of mangrove islands with open water. In contrast, the amplitudes of storm surges at the front of the mangrove zone increase by about 10–30% because of the “blockage” of mangroves to surge water, which can cause greater impacts on structures at the front of mangroves than the case without mangroves. The mangrove forest can also protect the wetlands behind the mangrove zone against surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane with a fast forward speed of 11.2 m/s (25 mph). However, the forest cannot fully attenuate storm surges from a Category 5 hurricane with a slow forward speed of 2.2 m/s (5 mph) and reduced surges can still affect the wetlands behind the mangrove zone. The effects of widths of mangrove zones on reducing surge amplitudes are nonlinear with large reduction rates (15–30%) for initial width increments and small rates (<5%) for subsequent width increments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]