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This paper projects the consequences of modifying or eliminating the current national alcohol retail monopolies in Sweden, Norway and Finland as a possible result of those countries' membership in the European Union (EU). First, the authors project absolute alcohol consumption in each country based on different possible changes in alcohol price and availability. Then they predict the future levels of alcohol-related problems likely to result from increased per capita alcohol consumption (Sweden and Norway only). All of the scenarios examined in this paper are expected to lead to increases in per capita alcohol consumption. The smallest increase in consumption would result from a partial elimination of the current monopoly and a modest reduction in alcohol prices. In that case, projected per capita consumption in Sweden for inhabitants 15 years and older would rise from 6.3 to 9.3 litres; in Norway, from 4.7 to 6.7 litres; and in Finland, from 8.4 to 11.1 litres. The greatest projected increase in consumption would result from a complete elimination of the state monopolies such that all beer, wine and spirits were sold in food shops, grocery stores and gasoline stations, along with a substantial drop in alcohol prices as a result of private competition within each country and increased cross-border alcohol purchases. That scenario would result in projected per capita consumption of 12.7 litres in Sweden, 11.1 litres in Norway and 13.7 litres in Finland. The authors project that a 1-litre increase in consumption would result in a 9.5% increase in total alcohol-related mortality in Sweden and a 9.7% increase in Norway. Further, alcohol-related assaults would increase by 9% in Sweden and 9.6% in Norway. A 5-litre increase in consumption would result in a 62% increase in alcohol-related mortality in Sweden and a 60% increase in Norway, and a 57% increase in alcohol-involved assaults in both countries.

Inter-cultural comparisons point to associations among aggregate rates of consumption and certain alcohol-related complications, particularly chronic effects, such as liver cirrhosis mortality. Accidental, poisoning and violent incidents are not considered to have as strong an association with societal drinking patterns, since situational, environmental and interactional features contributing to the incident are likely to play a strong role relative to the volume of alcohol consumed. This paper compares annual alcohol consumption rates and male and female mortality rates for liver cirrhosis and 12 main accidental/violent causes of death for Canada, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the US between 1965 and 1987. Using filtering techniques to account for autocorrelation, conservative measures of association were developed. The results indicate that while statistically significant correlations were evident with regard to liver cirrhosis and suicide in some jurisdictions, in most instances the comparisons were not significant. Further work is suggested with regard to the following: utilizing more refined approaches to examine the covariations of casualties and alcohol consumption, and studies combining aggregate level investigations with those focusing at the group or interactional level--in particular those specifying and examining societal norms and risk-taking at the group and sub-population levels.