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Several EU countries import wood pellets from the south-eastern United States. The imported wood pellets are (co-)fired in power plants with the aim of reducing overall greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions from electricity and meeting EU renewable energy targets. To assess whether GHG emissions are reduced and on what timescale, we construct the GHG balance of wood-pellet electricity. This GHG balance consists of supply chain and combustion GHG emissions, carbon sequestration during biomass growth and avoided GHG emissions through replacing fossil electricity. We investigate wood pellets from four softwood feedstock types: small roundwood, commercial thinnings, harvest residues and mill residues. Per feedstock, the GHG balance of wood-pellet electricity is compared against those of alternative scenarios. Alternative scenarios are combinations of alternative fates of the feedstock materials, such as in-forest decomposition, or the production of paper or wood panels like oriented strand board ( OSB). Alternative scenario composition depends on feedstock type and local demand for this feedstock. Results indicate that the GHG balance of wood-pellet electricity equals that of alternative scenarios within 0-21 years (the GHG parity time), after which wood-pellet electricity has sustained climate benefits. Parity times increase by a maximum of 12 years when varying key variables (emissions associated with paper and panels, soil carbon increase via feedstock decomposition, wood-pellet electricity supply chain emissions) within maximum plausible ranges. Using commercial thinnings, harvest residues or mill residues as feedstock leads to the shortest GHG parity times (0-6 years) and fastest GHG benefits from wood-pellet electricity. We find shorter GHG parity times than previous studies, for we use a novel approach that differentiates feedstocks and considers alternative scenarios based on (combinations of) alternative feedstock fates, rather than on alternative land uses. This novel approach is relevant for bioenergy derived from low-value feedstocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expected use of solid biomass for large-scale heat and power production across North-West Europe ( NW EU) has led to discussions about its sustainability, especially due to the increasing import dependence of the sector. While individual Member States and companies have put forward sustainability criteria, it remains unclear how different requirements will influence the availability and cost of solid biomass and thus how specific regions will satisfy their demand in a competitive global market. We combined a geospatially explicit least-cost biomass supply model with a linear optimization solver to assess global solid biomass trade streams by 2020 with a particular focus on NW EU. We apply different demand and supply scenarios representing varying policy developments and sustainability requirements. We find that the projected EU solid biomass demand by 2020 can be met across all scenarios, almost exclusively via domestic biomass. The exploitation of domestic agricultural residue and energy crop potentials, however, will need to increase sharply. Given sustainability requirements for solid biomass as for liquid biofuels, extra- EU imports may reach 236 PJ by 2020, i.e., 400% of their 2010 levels. Intra- EU trade is expected to grow with stricter sustainability requirements up to 548 PJ, i.e., 280% of its 2010 levels by 2020. Increasing sustainability requirements can have different effects on trade portfolios across NW EU. Excluding pulpwood pellets may drive the supply costs of import dependent countries, foremost the Netherlands and the UK, whereas excluding additional forest biomass may entail higher costs for Germany and Denmark which rely on regional biomass. Excluding solid biomass fractions may create short-term price hikes. Our modeling results are strongly influenced by parameterization choices, foremost assumed EU biomass supply volumes and costs and assumed relations between criteria and supply. The model framework is suited for the inclusion of dynamic supply-demand interactions and other world regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article describes the development of a geographic information systems (GIS) based biomass transport analysis tool BIT-UU used in combination with the European renewable energy model Green-X. BIT-UU calculates cost and GHG emissions from lowest cost routes, using intermodal transport (by road, rail, inland waterways and sea) between origins of supply and demand destinations. With the developed biomass trade module in Green-X, the role of bioenergy can be evaluated in the larger context of renewable energy deployment. The modeling framework takes into account the current and future energy policies at EU and country levels, competition with alternative sources of renewable energy (e.g. photovoltaic, wind) and sectors (electricity, heat, transport fuels) as well as competition between EU member states for the same biomass resources. Scenario projections to 2020 are used to demonstrate the developed modeling framework. According to these scenarios, biomass from domestic supply remains the most important source of bioenergy (91-93% in 2020). However, the role of traded solid biomass will become increasingly important. With a business as usual scenario, assuming continuation of current renewable energy policies to 2020, the binding renewable energy targets will not be achieved, but trade of solid biomass will still increase up to 451 PJ in 2020. In the scenario that meets the conditions to achieve the 20% renewable energy target in 2020, traded solid biomass is projected to increase to 440 PJ if sustainability criteria are applied (minimum GHG saving) and 506 PJ without these sustainability regulations. Because imports of solid biomass from outside the EU are projected to become larger than intra-EU trade in the scenarios, the scenarios show the importance of improving the representation of extra-EU biomass sources and trade in the modeling framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]