Search

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across human cultures, grandparents make a valued contribution to the health of their families and communities. Moreover, evidence is gathering that grandparents have a positive impact on the development of grandchildren in contemporary industrialized societies. A broad range of factors that influence the likelihood grandparents will invest in their grandchildren has been explored by disciplines as diverse as sociology, economics, psychology and evolutionary biology. To progress toward an encompassing framework, this study will include biological relatedness between grandparents and grandchildren, a factor central to some discipline's theoretical frameworks (e.g., evolutionary biology), next to a wide range of other factors in an analysis of grandparental investment in contemporary Europe. This study draws on data collected in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe from 11 European countries that included 22,967 grandparent–child dyads. Grandparents reported biological relatedness, and grandparental investment was measured as the frequency of informal childcare. Biological and non-biological grandparents differed significantly in a variety of individual, familial and area-level characteristics. Furthermore, many other economic, sociological, and psychological factors also influenced grandparental investment. When they were controlled, biological grandparents, relative to non-biological grandparents, were more likely to invest heavily, looking after their grandchildren almost daily or weekly. Paradoxically, however, they were also more likely to invest nothing at all. We discuss the methodological and theoretical implications of these findings across disciplines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Out-of-Africa model holds that anatomically modern humans (AMH) evolved and dispersed from Africa into Asia, and later Europe. Palaeoanthropological evidence from the Near East assumes great importance, but AMH remains from the region are extremely scarce. ‘Egbert’, a now-lost AMH fossil from the key site of Ksar Akil (Lebanon) and ‘Ethelruda’, a recently re-discovered fragmentary maxilla from the same site, are two rare examples where human fossils are directly linked with early Upper Palaeolithic archaeological assemblages. Here we radiocarbon date the contexts from which Egbert and Ethelruda were recovered, as well as the levels above and below the findspots. In the absence of well-preserved organic materials, we primarily used marine shell beads, often regarded as indicative of behavioural modernity. Bayesian modelling allows for the construction of a chronostratigraphic framework for Ksar Akil, which supports several conclusions. The model-generated age estimates place Egbert between 40.8–39.2 ka cal BP (68.2% prob.) and Ethelruda between 42.4–41.7 ka cal BP (68.2% prob.). This indicates that Egbert is of an age comparable to that of the oldest directly-dated European AMH (Peştera cu Oase). Ethelruda is older, but on current estimates not older than the modern human teeth from Cavallo in Italy. The dating of the so-called “transitional” or Initial Upper Palaeolithic layers of the site may indicate that the passage from the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic at Ksar Akil, and possibly in the wider northern Levant, occurred later than previously estimated, casting some doubts on the assumed singular role of the region as a locus for human dispersals into Europe. Finally, tentative interpretations of the fossil's taxonomy, combined with the chronometric dating of Ethelruda's context, provides evidence that the transitional/IUP industries of Europe and the Levant, or at least some of them, may be the result of early modern human migration(s). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To extend existing research on the US health disadvantage relative to Europe by studying the relationships of disability with age from midlife to old age in the US and four European regions (England/Northern and Western Europe/Southern Europe/Eastern Europe) including their wealth-related differences, using a flexible statistical approach to model the age-functions. Methods: We used data from three studies on aging, with nationally representative samples of adults aged 50 to 85 from 15 countries (N = 48225): the US-American Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Outcomes were mobility limitations and limitations in instrumental activities of daily living. We applied fractional polynomials of age to determine best fitting functional forms for age on disability in each region, while controlling for socio-demographic characteristics and important risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, smoking, physical inactivity). Results: Findings showed high levels of disability in the US with small age-related changes between 50 and 85. Levels of disability were generally lower in Eastern Europe, followed by England and Southern Europe and lowest in Northern and Western Europe. In these latter countries age-related increases of disability, though, were steeper than in the US, especially in Eastern and Southern Europe. For all countries and at all ages, disability levels were higher among adults with low wealth compared to those with high wealth, with largest wealth-related differences among those in early old age in the USA. Conclusions: This paper illustrates considerable variations of disability and its relationship with age. It supports the hypothesis that less developed social policies and more pronounced socioeconomic inequalities are related to higher levels of disability and an earlier onset of disability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current human mitochondrial (mtDNA) phylogeny does not equally represent all human populations but is biased in favour of representatives originally from north and central Europe. This especially affects the phylogeny of some uncommon West Eurasian haplogroups, including I and W, whose southern European and Near Eastern components are very poorly represented, suggesting that extensive hidden phylogenetic substructure remains to be uncovered. This study expanded and re-analysed the available datasets of I and W complete mtDNA genomes, reaching a comprehensive 419 mitogenomes, and searched for precise correlations between the ages and geographical distributions of their numerous newly identified subclades with events of human dispersal which contributed to the genetic formation of modern Europeans. Our results showed that haplogroups I (within N1a1b) and W originated in the Near East during the Last Glacial Maximum or pre-warming period (the period of gradual warming between the end of the LGM, ∼19 ky ago, and the beginning of the first main warming phase, ∼15 ky ago) and, like the much more common haplogroups J and T, may have been involved in Late Glacial expansions starting from the Near East. Thus our data contribute to a better definition of the Late and postglacial re-peopling of Europe, providing further evidence for the scenario that major population expansions started after the Last Glacial Maximum but before Neolithic times, but also evidencing traces of diffusion events in several I and W subclades dating to the European Neolithic and restricted to Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: A period of economic recession may be particularly difficult for people with mental health problems as they may be at higher risk of losing their jobs, and more competitive labour markets can also make it more difficult to find a new job. This study assesses unemployment rates among individuals with mental health problems before and during the current economic recession. Methods: Using individual and aggregate level data collected from 27 EU countries in the Eurobarometer surveys of 2006 and 2010, we examined changes in unemployment rates over this period among individuals with and without mental health problems. Results: Following the onset of the recession, the gap in unemployment rates between individuals with and without mental health problems significantly widened (odds ratio: 1.12, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.34). This disparity became even greater for males, and individuals with low levels of education. Individuals with mental health problems living in countries with higher levels of stigmatizing attitudes regarding dangerousness of people with mental illness were more vulnerable to unemployment in 2010, but not 2006. Greater agreement that people with mental health problems have themselves to blame, was associated with lower likelihood of unemployment for individuals with and without mental health problems. Conclusion: These findings study suggest that times of economic hardship may intensify social exclusion of people with mental health problems, especially males and individuals with lower education. Interventions to combat economic exclusion and to promote social participation of individuals with mental health problems are even more important during times of economic crisis, and these efforts should target support to the most vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research concerning the association between use of antidepressants and incidence of suicide has yielded inconsistent results and is the subject of considerable controversy. The first aim is to describe trends in the use of antidepressants and rates of suicide in Europe, adjusted for gross domestic product, alcohol consumption, unemployment, and divorce. The second aim is to explore if any observed reduction in the rate of suicide in different European countries preceded the trend for increased use of antidepressants. Methods: Data were obtained for 29 European countries between 1980 and 2009. Pearson correlations were used to explore the direction and magnitude of associations. Generalized linear mixed models and Poisson regression distribution were used to clarify the effects of antidepressants on suicide rates, while an autoregressive adjusted model was used to test the interaction between antidepressant utilization and suicide over two time periods: 1980–1994 and 1995–2009. Findings: An inverse correlation was observed in all countries between recorded Standardised Death Rate (SDR) for suicide and antidepressant Defined Daily Dosage (DDD), with the exception of Portugal. Variability was marked in the association between suicide and alcohol, unemployment and divorce, with countries depicting either a positive or a negative correlation with the SDR for suicide. Every unit increase in DDD of an antidepressant per 1000 people per day, adjusted for these confounding factors, reduces the SDR by 0.088. The correlation between DDD and suicide related SDR was negative in both time periods considered, albeit more pronounced between 1980 and 1994. Conclusions: Suicide rates have tended to decrease more in European countries where there has been a greater increase in the use of antidepressants. These findings underline the importance of the appropriate use of antidepressants as part of routine care for people diagnosed with depression, therefore reducing the risk of suicide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in “normal” and “hosing” experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The “hosing” experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the “normal” experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arrival of agriculture into Europe during the Neolithic transition brought a significant shift in human lifestyle and subsistence. However, the conditions under which the spread of the new culture and technologies occurred are still debated. Similarly, the roles played by women and men during the Neolithic transition are not well understood, probably due to the fact that mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and Y chromosome (NRY) data are usually studied independently rather than within the same statistical framework. Here, we applied an integrative approach, using different model-based inferential techniques, to analyse published datasets from contemporary and ancient European populations. By integrating mtDNA and NRY data into the same admixture approach, we show that both males and females underwent the same admixture history and both support the demic diffusion model of Ammerman and Cavalli-Sforza. Similarly, the patterns of genetic diversity found in extant and ancient populations demonstrate that both modern and ancient mtDNA support the demic diffusion model. They also show that population structure and differential growth between farmers and hunter-gatherers are necessary to explain both types of data. However, we also found some differences between male and female markers, suggesting that the female effective population size was larger than that of the males, probably due to different demographic histories. We argue that these differences are most probably related to the various shifts in cultural practices and lifestyles that followed the Neolithic Transition, such as sedentism, the shift from polygyny to monogamy or the increase of patrilocality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for phenotypic and microevolutionary adaptations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse the impact of financial liberalization and reforms on the banking performance in 17 countries from CEE for the period 2004–2008 using a two-stage empirical model that involves estimating bank performance in the first stage and assessing its determinants in the second one. From our analysis it results that banks from CEE countries with higher level of liberalization and openness are able to increase cost efficiency and eventually to offer cheaper services to clients. Banks from non-member EU countries are less cost efficient but experienced much higher total productivity growth level, and large sized banks are much more cost efficient than medium and small banks, while small sized banks show the highest growth in terms of productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Fukushima nuclear disaster has generated worldwide concern on the risk of exposure to nuclear radiations. In Europe, health authorities had to issue statements about the lack of usefulness of iodine based preventive treatments within their borders. However a lack of confidence in official messages has developed in various European countries due to recent perceived failures in managing public health crises. The lay population preventive behaviors in this context are largely unknown. Consequently, to examine the effects of public health crisis on lay behaviors leading to pharmaceuticals purchases, we studied the sales of iodine-based products in France before, during and after the crisis. Methods: We focused our study on 58 iodine-based drugs available with and without a physician prescription. Our data came from a stratified sample of 3004 pharmacies in metropolitan France. Our study period was from January 2010 to April 2012, with a focus on March-April 2011. We differentiated sales of drugs prescribed by physicians from sales of drugs obtained without a prescription. We used a CUSUM method to detect abnormal increases in sales activity and cross-correlations to assess shifts in sales timing. Results: Sales of iodine-based nutritional complements, and later sales of iodine-based homeopathic remedies, substantially increased (up to 3-fold) during a period of 20 days. Their temporal patterns were correlated to specific events during the crisis. Prescriptions for iodine-based homeopathy increased (up to 35% of all sales). Iodine pills, strictly regulated by health authorities, have also been sold but on a very small scale. Conclusion: These results indicate uncontrolled preventive behaviors resulting in the potentially unjustifiable consumption of available drugs. They have implications in public policy, and demonstrate the usefulness of drug sales surveillance for instantaneous evaluation of population behavior during a global crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To ascertain patterns of parental smoking in the vicinity of children in Eastern and Western Europe and their relation to Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) scores. Methods: Data on parental smoking patterns were obtained from the School Child Mental Health Europe (SCMHE), a 2010 cross-sectional survey of 5141 school children aged 6 to 11 years and their parents in six countries: Germany, Netherlands, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey ranked by TCS into three level categories toward tobacco control policies. Results: A slightly higher proportion of Eastern compared to Western European mothers (42.4 vs. 35.1%) were currently smoking in but the difference was not statistically significant after adjusting for maternal age and maternal educational attainment. About a fifth (19.3%) and a tenth (10.0%) of Eastern and Western European mothers, respectively, smoked in the vicinity of their children, and the difference was significant even after adjustment for potential confounders (p<0.001). Parents with the highest educational attainment were significantly less likely to smoke in the vicinity of their children than those with the lowest attainment. After control of these covariates lax tobacco control policies, compared to intermediate policies, were associated with a 50% increase in the likelihood of maternal smoking in the vicinity of children adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.52 and 1.64. Among fathers, however, the relationship with paternal smoking and TCS seems more complex since strict policy increases the risk as well AOR = 1,40. Only one country, however belongs to the strict group. Significance: Tobacco control policies seem to have influenced maternal smoking behaviors overall to a limited degree and smoking in the vicinity of children to a much greater degree. Children living in European countries with lax tobacco control policies are more likely to be exposed to second hand smoking from maternal and paternal smoking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of isolation signatures is fundamental to better understand the genetic structure of human populations and to test the relations between cultural factors and genetic variation. However, with current approaches, it is not possible to distinguish between the consequences of long-term isolation and the effects of reduced sample size, selection and differential gene flow. To overcome these limitations, we have integrated the analysis of classical genetic diversity measures with a Bayesian method to estimate gene flow and have carried out simulations based on the coalescent. Combining these approaches, we first tested whether the relatively short history of cultural and geographical isolation of four “linguistic islands” of the Eastern Alps (Lessinia, Sauris, Sappada and Timau) had left detectable signatures in their genetic structure. We then compared our findings to previous studies of European population isolates. Finally, we explored the importance of demographic and cultural factors in shaping genetic diversity among the groups under study. A combination of small initial effective size and continued genetic isolation from surrounding populations seems to provide a coherent explanation for the diversity observed among Sauris, Sappada and Timau, which was found to be substantially greater than in other groups of European isolated populations. Simulations of micro-evolutionary scenarios indicate that ethnicity might have been important in increasing genetic diversity among these culturally related and spatially close populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]