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Introduction: African Swine Fever (ASF) is a severe viral disease infecting all suid species. Since the first outbreak in Georgia in 2007, it has slowly spread towards Western Europe and reached the European Union when first cases were detected in Poland and the Baltic States in 2014. ASF was first reported in China in 2018 and since then, it has spread to 14 countries within two years. This study aimed to estimate the introduction probability of ASF from Eastern Asia in a qualitative risk assessment, and to compare it to the probability from Eastern Europe, which was assessed in an earlier risk assessment. A high probability of introduction was estimated for the import of meat and meat products, which was found to be the most likely route of introduction. Less important routes were introduction by human contamination (low probability) or import of feed or blood products (very low probability). Import of domestic pigs or free-ranging wild boar, contaminated means of transport, or infected semen, embryo or ticks were all estimated to be negligible. For Eastern Europe, import of meat and meat products was also estimated to pose a high risk and was therefore the most likely route of introduction. Higher probabilities were estimated for import of live pigs, contaminated feed or means of transport and human contamination. Overall, the probability of introduction from Eastern Asia is only slightly lower than from Eastern Europe. As it is important to detect the first case as quickly as possible, it is important not to fall victim to habituation effects, but to remain vigilant.

Equine clinicians and researchers often make the diagnosis of equine sarcoids (ES) on clinical assessment alone, without histopathological confirmation. However, the accuracy of the clinical diagnosis of ES has not been critically assessed. To assess sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the clinical diagnosis of ES, 40 clinical cases with histologically confirmed equine skin lesions (26 ES and 14 non-ES) were compiled in a representative online examination. For each case and lesion, at least one photograph and all relevant information were presented in a standardised format. This included the horse's signalment, lesion localisation, lesion progression, presence of other skin lesions, earlier treatments and response to treatment. No information relevant for the assessment of the lesion was intentionally withheld. Fourteen ES experts, 39 board-certified equine specialists, 103 equine practitioners and 25 novices categorised the cases into ES or non-ES and graded their level of diagnostic confidence on a scale from 1 to 6 for each case. The overall success rate was 82.0% while sensitivity and specificity were 83.3% and 79.6%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 88.4% and 72.0%, respectively, in the tested population with a 66% prevalence of ES. However, less experienced veterinarians were frequently wrong in their clinical judgement despite a high level of diagnostic confidence. Therefore, the authors propose to develop a diagnostic tool to help clinicians optimise their selection of lesions requiring a biopsy. Ultimately, this will help reduce costs and morbidity generated by unnecessary diagnostic and therapeutic efforts., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)