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Exposure models are essential in almost all relevant contexts for exposure science. To address the numerous challenges and gaps that exist, exposure modelling is one of the priority areas of the European Exposure Science Strategy developed by the European Chapter of the International Society of Exposure Science (ISES Europe). A strategy was developed for the priority area of exposure modelling in Europe with four strategic objectives. These objectives are (1) improvement of models and tools, (2) development of new methodologies and support for understudied fields, (3) improvement of model use and (4) regulatory needs for modelling. In a bottom-up approach, exposure modellers from different European countries and institutions who are active in the fields of occupational, population and environmental exposure science pooled their expertise under the umbrella of the ISES Europe Working Group on exposure models. This working group assessed the state-of-the-art of exposure modelling in Europe by developing an inventory of exposure models used in Europe and reviewing the existing literature on pitfalls for exposure modelling, in order to identify crucial modelling-related strategy elements. Decisive actions were defined for ISES Europe stakeholders, including collecting available models and accompanying information in a living document curated and published by ISES Europe, as well as a long-term goal of developing a best-practices handbook. Alongside these actions, recommendations were developed and addressed to stakeholders outside of ISES Europe. Four strategic objectives were identified with an associated action plan and roadmap for the implementation of the European Exposure Science Strategy for exposure modelling. This strategic plan will foster a common understanding of modelling-related methodology, terminology and future research in Europe, and have a broader impact on strategic considerations globally., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

In Europe, several occupational exposure models have been developed and are recommended for regulatory exposure assessment. Only some information on the substance of interest (e.g., vapor pressure) and the workplace conditions (e.g., ventilation rate) is required in these models to predict an exposure value that will be later used to characterize the risk. However, it has been shown that models may differ in their predictions and that usually, one of the models best fits a given set of exposure conditions. Unfortunately, there are no clear rules on how to select the best model. In this study, we developed a new modeling approach that together uses the three most popular models, Advanced REACH Tool, Stoffenmanger, and ECETOC TRAv3, to obtain a unique exposure prediction. This approach is an extension of the TREXMO tool, and is called TREXMO+. TREXMO+ applies a machine-learning technique on a set of exposure data with the measured values to split them into smaller subsets, corresponding to exposure conditions sharing similar characteristics. For each subset, TREXMO+ then establishes a regression model with the three REACH tools used as the exposure predictors. The performance of the new model was tested and a comparison was made between the results obtained by TREXMO+ and those obtained by conventional tools. TREXMO+ model was found to be less biased and more accurate than the REACH models. Its prediction differs generally from measurements by a factor of 2-3 from measurements, whereas conventional models were found to differ by a factor 2-14. However, as the available test dataset is limited, its results will need to be confirmed by larger-scale tests.