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Objective: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. A simple prognostic model to predict 5-year survival in SSc was developed in 1999 in 280 patients, but it has not been validated in other patients. The predictions of a prognostic model are usually less accurate in other patients, especially from other centres or countries. A study was undertaken to validate the prognostic model to predict 5-year survival in SSc in other centres throughout Europe., Methods: A European multicentre cohort of patients with SSc diagnosed before 2002 was established. Patients with SSc according to the preliminary American College of Rheumatology classification criteria were eligible for the study when they were followed for at least 5 years or shorter if they died. The primary outcome was 5-year survival after diagnosis of SSc. The predefined prognostic model uses the following baseline variables: age, gender, presence of urine protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO)., Results: Data were available for 1049 patients, 119 (11%) of whom died within 5 years after diagnosis. Of the patients, 85% were female, the mean (SD) age at diagnosis was 50 (14) years and 30% were classified as having diffuse cutaneous SSc. The prognostic model with age (OR 1.03), male gender (OR 1.93), urine protein (OR 2.29), elevated ESR (1.89) and low DLCO (OR 1.94) had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78. Death occurred in 12 (2.2%) of 509 patients with no risk factors, 45 (13%) of 349 patients with one risk factor, 55 (33%) of 168 patients with two risk factors and 7 (30%) of 23 patients with three risk factors., Conclusion: A simple prognostic model using three disease factors to predict 5-year survival at diagnosis in SSc showed reasonable performance upon validation in a European multicentre study.

Type 2 diabetes is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in most industrialized countries in Europe. The RENAAL (Reduction of Endpoints in NIDDM with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan) Study evaluated the renal protective effects of losartan versus placebo on a background of non-ACE-I/non-AIIA conventional antihypertensive therapy in 1513 patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. Losartan reduced the incidence of doubling of serum creatinine, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or death by 16% (P=0.022) and reduced the risk of progression to ESRD, defined as the initiation of dialysis or transplantation, by 29% (P=0.002). We set out to estimate the potential effect of losartan on the burden and costs associated with ESRD over 3.5 years in the European Union (EU). The risk reduction in new cases of ESRD was calculated by combining type 2 diabetes population estimates for the EU with the percent absolute risk reduction of ESRD in patients treated with losartan as observed in RENAAL. The number of days each patient experienced ESRD was defined as the length of time from onset of ESRD until the minimum of death or 3.5 years. ESRD-free person-years avoided with losartan treatment were calculated by combining the population estimate with the ESRD days avoided divided by number of days in a year. ESRD costs from Germany were used to approximate the potential cost savings from reduced time with ESRD and fewer ESRD cases on a EU wide basis. There are approximately 700,000 diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients with proteinuria (urine albumin/creatinine >or=300 mg/g) in the EU. The addition of losartan to the treatment regimen of these patients is expected to lead to a reduction of 44,100 cases of ESRD, 64,400 fewer person-years with ESRD, and reduce ESRD-related costs by euro 2.6 billion over 3.5 years based on RENAAL data. Treatment with losartan not only reduced the incidence of ESRD, but also can result in substantial cost savings in the European Union.