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Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is the most abundant cervid in Europe and, as such, has a considerable impact over several human activities. Accurate roe deer population size estimates are useful to ensure their proper management. We tested 3 methods for estimating roe deer abundance (drive counts, pellet-group counts, and camera trapping) during two consecutive years (2012 and 2013) in the Apennines (Italy) in order to assess their precision and applicability. During the study period, population density estimates were: drive counts 21.89±12.74 roe deer/km2 and pellet-group counts 18.74±2.31 roe deer/km2 in 2012; drive counts 19.32±11.12 roe deer/km2 and camera trapping 29.05±7.48 roe deer/km2 in 2013. Precision of the density estimates differed widely among the 3 methods, with coefficients of variation ranging from 12% (pellet-group counts) to 58% (drive counts). Drive counts represented the most demanding method on account of the higher number of operators involved. Pellet-group counts yielded the most precise results and required a smaller number of operators, though the sampling effort was considerable. When compared to the other two methods, camera trapping resulted in an intermediate level of precision and required the lowest sampling effort. We also discussed field protocols of each method, considering that volunteers, rather than technicians, will more likely be appointed for these tasks in the near future. For this reason, we strongly suggest that for each method managers of population density monitoring projects take into account ease of use as well as the quality of the results obtained and the resources required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) is a disorder characterized by the degeneration of motor neurons in the spinal cord, leading to muscular atrophy. In the majority of cases, SMA is caused by the homozygous absence of the SMN1 gene. The disease severity of SMA is strongly influenced by the copy number of the closely related SMN2 gene. In addition, an SMN variant lacking exons 7 and 8 has been reported in 8% and 23% of healthy Swedish and Spanish individuals respectively. We tested 1255 samples from the 1000 Genomes Project using a new version of the multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) P021 probemix that covers each SMN exon. The SMN variant lacking exons 7 and 8 was present in up to 20% of individuals in several Caucasian populations, while being almost completely absent in various Asian and African populations. This SMN1/2Δ7–8 variant appears to be derived from an ancient deletion event as the deletion size is identical in 99% of samples tested. The average total copy number of SMN1, SMN2 and the SMN1/2Δ7–8 variant combined was remarkably comparable in all populations tested, ranging from 3.64 in Asian to 3.75 in African samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction. We suspected that the incidence of NEC in Denmark had increased during the last 20 years but hypothesized that this could be explained by the increased neonatal survival. Methods. We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study of all registered liveborn infants in Denmark in the period from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2014. Data were obtained from the Medical Birth Registry, National Patient Register, and Cause of Death register in Denmark. The primary outcome was the registration of NEC (ICD-10: DP77.9) during a hospital admission within 6 months after birth. The statistical analysis used ‘death before NEC’ as a competing risk. Results. The cohort consisted of 1,351,675 infants, of which 8,059 died. There was a strongly significant decreasing risk of death over the period for the all infants (p<0.0001 in all gestational age groups). In total, 994 infants were diagnosed with NEC which lead to an incidence of 7.4 per 10,000 live-born infants. During the observation period, the incidence increased from 6.3 to 7.9 per 10,000 births (p = 0.006). When accounting for ‘death before NEC’ as a competing risk, the increase could be explained by the increased neonatal survival. There was, however, a GA-group/epoch interaction (p = 0.008) in the cause-specific hazard ratios with a trend towards an increasing risk of NEC in the most preterm infants and a decreasing risk of NEC in the term infants. Conclusion. While the overall incidence of NEC increased over the study period, the overall risk of NEC did not increase when considering the increased survival. Nevertheless, there seemed to be an increased risk of NEC in the most premature infants which was masked by a decreased risk in the term infants. This study suggests that research to prevent NEC in the most preterm infants is more important now than ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To analyze the mortality trend in Spain before, during and after the economic crisis and austerity policies in the working-age population. Methods: From 2005 to 2016 we calculated the annual all-cause mortality rate and the annual mortality rate from the main causes of death in the population aged 15 to 64. We also estimated the linear trends in mortality rates during four time intervals—2005–2007 (before crisis), 2008–2010 (first part of the crisis), 2011–2013 (second part of the crisis and implementation of austerity policies) and 2014–2016 (after the crisis)- by the annual percentage change (APC). Results: The all-cause mortality rate in men and women showed the greatest decline in 2008–2010 and the smallest decline in 2014–2016. The decline in 2011–2013 was higher than in 2014–2016. The APCs in 2005–2007, 2008–2010, 2011–2013 and 2014–2016 were -2.8, -4.1, -3.0 and -1.5 in men and -1.0. -2.1, -1.1 and -0.6 in women, respectively, although the APC in 2014–2016 in women was not significant. In 2014–2016, cancer mortality showed the largest decrease, mortality from cardiovascular diseases (men), respiratory diseases and traffic accidents reversed and showed an upward trend, and the downward trend in mortality from infectious diseases and digestive diseases was equal to or greater than that observed before the crisis. Conclusion: The decline in all-cause mortality in the working-age population during the economic crisis and the introduction of austerity measures was greater than that observed before and after the economic crisis. The slowing of the decline after the crisis was due to the reversal of the trend in mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum were geographically constrained to glacial refugia by the severity of the climate and ecological risk factors. In this research we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, to explore the impact of ecological risk on human population structure via a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability. The agent-based model allows us to evaluate the size and location of glacial refugia, the size of the populations occupying them and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. To do this, we model the probability of an agent foraging groups’ survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model’s simulated “genomes” (composed of regionally specific genetic markers) allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous archaeological studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain, but we expand on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this central refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe, with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater ecosystems rank among the most endangered ecosystems in the world and are under increasing threat from aquatic invasive species (AIS). Understanding the range expansion of AIS is key for mitigating their impacts. Most approaches rely on Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict the expansion of AIS, using mainly environmental variables, yet ignore the role of human activities in favouring the introduction and range expansion of AIS. In this study, we use five SDM algorithms (independently and in ensemble) and two accuracy measures (TSS, AUC), combined with a null modelling approach, to assess the predictive performance of the models and to quantify which predictors (environmental and anthropogenic from the native and introduced regions) best explain the distribution of nine freshwater invasive species (including fish, arthropods, molluscs, amphibians and reptiles) in a large island (Great Britain), and which species characteristics affect model performance. Our results show that the distribution of invasive species is difficult to predict by SDMs, even in cases when TSS and AUC model accuracy values are high. Our study strongly advocates the use of null models for testing SDMs performance and the inclusion of information from the native area and a variety of both human-related and environmental predictors for a more accurate modelling of the range expansion of AIS. Otherwise, models that only include climatic variables, or rely only on standard accuracy measures or a single algorithm, might result in mismanagement of AIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Schizophrenia is a severe condition that affects approximately 1% of the population. Certain elements of antipsychotic treatment can only be examined in large population, thus the need for population-based real-world analyses has been increasing. Patients and methods: Hungarian National Health Fund database includes all healthcare data of the population of Hungary. All patients diagnosed with schizophrenia between 01.01.2006 and 31.12.2015 were included in the study. We analyzed all patients with newly initiated second-generation antipsychotic during the inclusion period (01.01.2012–31.12.2013). Patients were followed for 2 years. All-cause treatment discontinuation served as the primary outcome of the study. Patients with newly initiated long-acting injectable treatments were further investigated in stratified analyses based on their previous treatment. Results: 106,624 patients had schizophrenia diagnosis during the study period. 12,232 patients met the inclusion criteria for newly initiating second-generation antipsychotic during the inclusion period. The proportion of patients still on treatment after 1 year for oral treatments varied between 17% (oral risperidone) and 31% (oral olanzapine) while the analogous data for long acting injectables were between 32% (risperidone long acting) and 64% (paliperidone long acting one monthly). The 2-year data were similarly in favor of long-actings. Median time to discontinuation in the oral group varied between 57 days (clozapine) and 121 days (olanzapine). The median time to discontinuation for long-actings was significantly longer: between 176 and 287 days; in case of paliperidone long acting, median was not reached during the observation period. Patients receiving long-acting treatment switched from another long-acting remained on the newly initiated treatment significantly longer than those switched from orals. Conclusion: Our results indicate the superiority of second generation long-acting antipsychotics with regard to rates of treatment discontinuation and periods of persistence to the assigned medication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To analyze trends in external mortality in Hungary between 1995 and 2014 by sex. Methods: Data on the numbers of deaths due to external causes were obtained from the published nationwide population register. Negative binomial regression was applied to investigate the yearly trends in external-cause mortality rates. Cyclic trends were investigated using the Walter-Elwood method. Results: Suicide and accidents accounted for approximately 84% of the all-external-cause of deaths in Hungary. Annual suicide, unintentional falls and traffic accidents mortality declined significantly (p-value for annual trend: p < 0.001) from 30.5 (95% CI: 29.5–31.5) to 15.8 (15.1–16.5), from 31.2 (30.2–32.2) to 12.2 (11.7–12.8) and from 17.2 (16.4–18) to 5.4 (5–5.8) per 100 000 persons per year, respectively, during the study period. A significant declining trend in annual mortality was also found for assault, cold/heating-related accidents and accidents caused by electric current. However, the declining trend for drowning-related accidents was significant only for males. Significant winter-peak seasonality was found in the mortality rates from accidental falls, cold/heat-related accidents, other accidents caused by submersion/obstruction and other causes. Seasonal trends with a peak from June to July were observed in death rates from suicide/self-harm, accidental drowning/submersion and accidents caused by electric current. A significant seasonal variation with a peak in September was revealed in the mortality due to traffic accidents. Conclusions: This Hungarian study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on almost all kinds of deaths from external causes between 1995 and 2014. Environmental effects are involved in the aetiology of suicide and accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) infection risk under substantial uncertainties of the vector abundance, environmental condition and human-tick interaction is important for evidence-informed public health intervention strategies. Estimating this risk is computationally challenging since the data we observe, i.e., the human incidence of TBE, is only the final outcome of the tick-host transmission and tick-human contact processes. The challenge also increases since the complex TBE virus (TBEV) transmission cycle involves the non-systemic route of transmission between co-feeding ticks. Here, we describe the hidden Markov transition process, using a novel TBEV transmission-human case reporting cascade model that couples the susceptible-infected compartmental model describing the TBEV transmission dynamics among ticks, animal hosts and humans, with the stochastic observation process of human TBE reporting given infection. By fitting human incidence data in Hungary to the transmission model, we estimate key parameters relevant to the tick-host interaction and tick-human transmission. We then use the parametrized cascade model to assess the transmission potential of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with respect to the climate change, and to evaluate the contribution of non-systemic transmission. We show that the TBEV transmission potential in the enzootic cycle has been increasing along with the increased temperature though the TBE human incidence has dropped since 1990s, emphasizing the importance of persistent public health interventions. By demonstrating that non-systemic transmission pathway is a significant factor in the transmission of TBEV in Hungary, we conclude that the risk of TBE infection will be highly underestimated if the non-systemic transmission route is neglected in the risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of disappearance of the Neanderthals, the only human population living in Europe before the arrival of Homo sapiens, have been debated for decades by the scientific community. Different hypotheses have been advanced to explain this demise, such as cognitive, adaptive and cultural inferiority of Neanderthals. Here, we investigate the disappearance of Neanderthals by examining the extent of demographic changes needed over a period of 10,000 years (yrs) to lead to their extinction. In regard to such fossil populations, we inferred demographic parameters from present day and past hunter-gatherer populations, and from bio-anthropological rules. We used demographic modeling and simulations to identify the set of plausible demographic parameters of the Neanderthal population compatible with the observed dynamics, and to explore the circumstances under which they might have led to the disappearance of Neanderthals. A slight (<4%) but continuous decrease in the fertility rate of younger Neanderthal women could have had a significant impact on these dynamics, and could have precipitated their demise. Our results open the way to non-catastrophic events as plausible explanations for Neanderthal extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Risk stratification has so far been evaluated under the assumption that women fully adhere to screening recommendations. However, the participation in German cancer screening programs remains low at 54%. The question arises whether risk-stratified screening is economically efficient under the assumption that adherence is not perfect. Method: We have adapted a micro-simulation Markov model to the German context. Annual, biennial, and triennial routine screening are compared with five risk-adapted strategies using thresholds of relative risk to stratify screening frequencies. We used three outcome variables (mortality reduction, quality-adjusted life years, and false-positive results) under the assumption of full adherence vs. an adherence rate of 54%. Strategies are evaluated using efficiency frontiers and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Results: The reduced adherence rate affects both performance and cost; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remain constant. The results of PSA show that risk-stratified screening strategies are more efficient than biennial routine screening under certain conditions. At any willingness-to-pay (WTP), there is a risk-stratified alternative with a higher likelihood of being the best choice. However, without explicit decision criteria and WTP, risk-stratified screening is not more efficient than biennial routine screening. Potential improvements in the adherence rates have significant health gains and budgetary implications. Conclusion: If the participation rate for mammographic screening is as low as in Germany, stratified screening is not clearly more efficient than routine screening but dependent on the WTP. A more promising design for future stratified strategies is the combination of risk stratification mechanisms with interventions to improve the low adherence in selected high-risk groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both close inbreeding and distant outbreeding may reduce fitness below the level of individuals with intermediate parental relatedness. In the haplodiploid plant-inhabiting predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis, which is patchily distributed within and among host plants, fitness is indeed reduced in the short term, i.e. by a single generation of inbreeding. However, in the medium to long term (multiple generations), distant out-breeding should provide for favorable demographic founder effects in isolated populations. We tested this prediction in isolated experimental lineages founded by females mated to a sibling (close inbreeding), a male from the same population (intermediate relatedness) or a male from another population (distant outbreeding) and monitored lineage growth and persistence over four generations. Cross-generationally, lineages founded by distantly outbred females performed the best, i.e. produced the most descendants. However, this was solely due to superior performance from the F2 generation onwards, whereas in the F1 generation, lineages founded by females mated to males from their own population (intermediate relatedness) performed the best, as predicted from short-term in- and out-breeding depression effects. At the genetic level, this result was most likely due to distantly outbred founders introducing higher allelic variability and lower homozygosity levels, counterbalancing inbreeding depression, which inevitably occurs in isolated lineages, from the F2 generation onwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many disciplines of scholarship are interested in the Relative Age Effect (RAE), whereby age-banding confers advantages on older members of the cohort over younger ones. Most research does not test this relationship in a manner consistent with theory (which requires a decline in frequency across the cohort year), instead resorting to non-parametric, non-directional approaches. In this article, the authors address this disconnect, provide an overview of the benefits associated with Poisson regression modelling, and two managerially useful measures for quantifying RAE bias, namely the Indices of Discrimination and Wastage. In a tutorial-like exposition, applications and extensions of this approach are illustrated using data on professional soccer players competing in the top two tiers of the “Big Five” European football leagues in the search to identify paragon clubs, leagues, and countries from which others may learn to mitigate this form of age-discrimination in the talent identification process. As with OLS regression, Poisson regression may include more than one independent variable. In this way we test competing explanations of RAE; control for unwanted sources of covariation; model interaction effects (that different clubs and countries may not all be subject to RAE to the same degree); and test for non-monotonic versions of RAE suggested in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most cervical cancer deaths in Finland occur after the termination of the national screening program, targeted at women aged 30 to 64 years. The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of screening at age 65 in reducing cervical cancer mortality. A register-based cohort study was performed with a follow-up period between 1991 and 2014. Mortality risk ratios for incident cervical cancer cases diagnosed at age 65 or older were compared between women invited and not invited for screening. The background risk difference between the studied areas was accounted for by using a reference cohort. The relative risk of death for women invited for cervical cancer screening at the age of 65 was 0.52 (95% CI: 0.29–0.94). The relative risks for women not attending and attending to screening with respect to the uninvited were 1.28 (CI: 0.65–2.50) and 0.28 (CI: 0.13–0.59), respectively. Inviting 65-year-old women for screening has been effective in reducing cervical cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the study is to analyze the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014 by sex and place of residence. Methods: The number of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (J40 –J44 and J47 according to ICD-10) over the period 1999 to 2014 was analyzed based on data obtained from the Central Statistical Office in Poland. Standard expected years of life lost due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were calculated by sex and place of residence according to the living population (SEYLLp) and the number of deaths caused by the disease (SEYLLd). Changes in the calculated measures were evaluated using joinpoint models. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were also calculated. Results: The study revealed that COPD contributed to 1.8% of the total number of deaths which occurred between 1999 and 2014. The greatest decrease in the analyzed measures was observed among males from rural areas (p<0.05) (SEYLL: AAPC = -1.6; 95%CI: -3.0;-0.2; SEYLLp: AAPC = -2.0; 95%CI: -3.4;-0.6; SEYLLd: AAPC = -1.1; 95%CI: -1.2;-0.9). A statistically significant increase in the SEYLL and SEYLLp indices was observed among female city dwellers (SEYLL: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI:0.7;4.0 and SEYLLp: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI: 0.8;4.1). Conclusions: All studied measures were higher in the male group than in the female group, regardless of the place of residence. A male who died of COPD in Poland in 2014 potentially lost 14.9 years of life, whereas a female lost 14.2 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individuals with schizophrenia or substance use disorder have a substantially increased mortality compared to the general population. Despite a high and probably increasing prevalence of comorbid substance use disorder in people with schizophrenia, the mortality in the comorbid group has been less studied and with contrasting results. We performed a nationwide open cohort study from 2009 to 2015, including all Norwegians aged 20–79 with schizophrenia and/or substance use disorder registered in any specialized health care setting in Norway, a total of 125,744 individuals. There were 12,318 deaths in the cohort, and total, sex-, age- and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated, comparing the number of deaths in patients with schizophrenia, schizophrenia only, substance use disorder only or a co-occurring diagnosis of schizophrenia and substance use disorder to the number expected if the patients had the age-, sex- and calendar-year specific death rates of the general population. The SMRs were 4.9 (95% CI 4.7–5.1) for all schizophrenia patients, 4.4 (95% CI 4.2–4.6) in patients with schizophrenia without substance use disorder, 6.6 (95% CI 6.5–6.8) in patients with substance use disorder only, and 7.4 (95% CI 7.0–8.2) in patients with both schizophrenia and substance use disorder. The SMRs were elevated in both genders, in all age groups and for all considered causes of death, and most so in the youngest. Approximately 27% of the excess mortality in all patients with schizophrenia was due to the raised mortality in the subgroup with comorbid SUD. The increased mortality in patients with schizophrenia and/or substance use disorder corresponded to more than 10,000 premature deaths, which constituted 84% of all deaths in the cohort. The persistent mortality gap highlights the importance of securing systematic screening and proper access to somatic health care, and a more effective prevention of premature death from external causes in this group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aedes albopictus is a tropical invasive species which in the last decades spread worldwide, also colonizing temperate regions of Europe and US, where it has become a public health concern due to its ability to transmit exotic arboviruses, as well as severe nuisance problems due to its aggressive daytime outdoor biting behaviour. While several studies have been carried out in order to predict the potential limits of the species expansions based on eco-climatic parameters, few studies have so far focused on the specific effects of these variables in shaping its micro-geographic abundance and dynamics. The present study investigated eco-climatic factors affecting Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural sites in Rome (Italy), which was colonized in 1997 and is nowadays one of the most infested metropolitan areas in Southern Europe. To this aim, longitudinal adult monitoring was carried out along a 70 km-transect across and beyond the most urbanized and densely populated metropolitan area. Two fine scale spatiotemporal datasets (one with reference to a 20m circular buffer around sticky traps used to collect mosquitoes and the second to a 300m circular buffer within each sampling site) were exploited to analyze the effect of climatic and socio-environmental variables on Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics along the transect. Results showed an association between highly anthropized habitats and high adult abundance both in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural areas, with “small green islands” corresponding to hot spots of abundance in the metropolitan areas only, and a bimodal seasonal dynamics with a second peak of abundance in autumn, due to heavy rains occurring in the preceding weeks in association with permissive temperatures. The results provide useful indications to prioritize public mosquito control measures in temperate urban areas where nuisance, human-mosquito contact and risk of local arbovirus transmission are likely higher, and highlight potential public health risks also after the summer months typically associated with high mosquito densities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species’ dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large ‘central’ population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Infants from multiple pregnancies have higher rates of preterm birth, stillbirth and neonatal death and differences in multiple birth rates (MBR) exist between countries. We aimed to describe differences in MBR in Europe and to investigate the impact of these differences on adverse perinatal outcomes at a population level. Methods: We used national aggregate birth data on multiple pregnancies, maternal age, gestational age (GA), stillbirth and neonatal death collected in the Euro-Peristat project (29 countries in 2010, N = 5 074 643 births). We also used European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) data on assisted conception and single embryo transfer (SET). The impact of MBR on outcomes was studied using meta-analysis techniques with random-effects models to derive pooled risk ratios (pRR) overall and for four groups of country defined by their MBR. We computed population attributable risks (PAR) for these groups. Results: In 2010, the average MBR was 16.8 per 1000 women giving birth, ranging from 9.1 (Romania) to 26.5 (Cyprus). Compared to singletons, multiples had a nine-fold increased risk (pRR 9.4, 95% Cl 9.1–9.8) of preterm birth (<37 weeks GA), an almost 12-fold increased risk (pRR 11.7, 95% CI 11.0–12.4) of very preterm birth (<32 weeks GA). Pooled RR were 2.4 (95% Cl 1.5–3.6) for fetal mortality at or after 28 weeks GA and 7.0 (95% Cl 6.1–8.0) for neonatal mortality. PAR of neonatal death and very preterm birth were higher in countries with high MBR compared to low MBR (17.1% (95% CI 13.8–20.2) versus 9.8% (95% Cl 9.6–11.0) for neonatal death and 29.6% (96% CI 28.5–30.6) versus 17.5% (95% CI 15.7–18.3) for very preterm births, respectively). Conclusions: Wide variations in MBR and their impact on population outcomes imply that efforts by countries to reduce MBR could improve perinatal outcomes, enabling better long-term child health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arrival of agriculture into Europe during the Neolithic transition brought a significant shift in human lifestyle and subsistence. However, the conditions under which the spread of the new culture and technologies occurred are still debated. Similarly, the roles played by women and men during the Neolithic transition are not well understood, probably due to the fact that mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and Y chromosome (NRY) data are usually studied independently rather than within the same statistical framework. Here, we applied an integrative approach, using different model-based inferential techniques, to analyse published datasets from contemporary and ancient European populations. By integrating mtDNA and NRY data into the same admixture approach, we show that both males and females underwent the same admixture history and both support the demic diffusion model of Ammerman and Cavalli-Sforza. Similarly, the patterns of genetic diversity found in extant and ancient populations demonstrate that both modern and ancient mtDNA support the demic diffusion model. They also show that population structure and differential growth between farmers and hunter-gatherers are necessary to explain both types of data. However, we also found some differences between male and female markers, suggesting that the female effective population size was larger than that of the males, probably due to different demographic histories. We argue that these differences are most probably related to the various shifts in cultural practices and lifestyles that followed the Neolithic Transition, such as sedentism, the shift from polygyny to monogamy or the increase of patrilocality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. Methods: We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. Findings: In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. Interpretation: Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]