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The quality of yield prediction is linked to that of leaf area. We first analysed the consequences of flowering time and environmental conditions on the area of individual leaves in 127 genotypes presenting contrasting flowering times in fields of Europe, Mexico, and Kenya. Flowering time was the strongest determinant of leaf area. Combined with a detailed field experiment, this experiment showed a large effect of flowering time on the final leaf number and on the distribution of leaf growth rate and growth duration along leaf ranks, in terms of both length and width. Equations with a limited number of genetic parameters predicted the beginning, end, and maximum growth rate (length and width) for each leaf rank. The genotype-specific environmental effects were analysed with datasets in phenotyping platforms that assessed the effects (i) of the amount of intercepted light on leaf width, and (ii) of temperature, evaporative demand, and soil water potential on leaf elongation rate. The resulting model was successfully tested for 31 hybrids in 15 European and Mexican fields. It potentially allows prediction of the vertical distribution of leaf area of a large number of genotypes in contrasting field conditions, based on phenomics and on sensor networks., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.)

Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers' adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)