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Biological invasions pose a rapidly expanding threat to the persistence, functioning and service provisioning of ecosystems globally, and to socio‐economic interests. The stages of successful invasions are driven by the same mechanism that underlies adaptive changes across species in general—via natural selection on intraspecific variation in traits that influence survival and reproductive performance (i.e., fitness). Surprisingly, however, the rapid progress in the field of invasion science has resulted in a predominance of species‐level approaches (such as deny lists), often irrespective of natural selection theory, local adaptation and other population‐level processes that govern successful invasions. To address these issues, we analyse non‐native species dynamics at the population level by employing a database of European freshwater macroinvertebrate time series, to investigate spreading speed, abundance dynamics and impact assessments among populations. Our findings reveal substantial variability in spreading speed and abundance trends within and between macroinvertebrate species across biogeographic regions, indicating that levels of invasiveness and impact differ markedly. Discrepancies and inconsistencies among species‐level risk screenings and real population‐level data were also identified, highlighting the inherent challenges in accurately assessing population‐level effects through species‐level assessments. In recognition of the importance of population‐level assessments, we urge a shift in invasive species management frameworks, which should account for the dynamics of different populations and their environmental context. Adopting an adaptive, region‐specific and population‐focused approach is imperative, considering the diverse ecological contexts and varying degrees of susceptibility. Such an approach could improve and refine risk assessments while promoting mechanistic understandings of risks and impacts, thereby enabling the development of more effective conservation and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population abundance of birds is an important way to gauge the sustainability and health of the environment. However, several factors influence their distribution and density in different habitats. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive and updated outlook on bird population dynamics in Europe in the past 40 years. With the use of Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs), we analyzed the data available from the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme (PECBMS) on abundance indexes collected throughout Europe from 1980 to 2019 and explored the driving forces behind our observed changes for each habitat type. We also apply GAMMs to model the overall changes in abundance indices of eight bird species that showed the highest variations (i.e., Locustella fluviatilis, Locustella naevia, Alcedo atthis, Bombycilla garrulus, Tetrax tetrax, Tringa totanus, Anthus campestris and Larus ridibundus). It was noted that the general abundance of birds decreased, with farmland birds suffering the biggest decline. Forest bird species population abundance was found to be quite varied; specialist species decreased as compared to generalists, which generally increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental conditions can influence the individual development of organisms and their morphological variability at the population level. The dimensions and proportions of the skull and lower jaw of immature shrews (Sorex araneus, S. caecutiens, and S. minutus), which were captured in August in regenerating clearings in the middle taiga of northeastern Europe, depended on the stage of abundance dynamics ("peaks" or "depressions"). For all three species from the same taxocenosis, a statistically significant reduction in the skull and jaw was observed against the background of the high abundance in captures and the multidimensional morphological niches corresponding to different abundance stages were significantly separated. The parameters of morphological diversity (entropy and self-organization index) depended on the amplitude of fluctuations in species occurrence; however, they varied within the limits characteristic of mammals. Along with Dehnel's phenomenon, natural population fluctuations may be one of the main factors determining the pattern of dynamics of the individual development and spatiotemporal variability of the morphological diversity of shrews. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional variability in the spatial distribution of resident population and across-country density divides have consolidated heterogeneous demographic patterns at the base of modern urban systems in Europe. Although economic, historical, institutional, and cultural factors have demonstrated to affect the spatial distribution of resident population, density-dependence and path-dependence are mechanisms persistently shaping demographic dynamics at both local and regional scale. Analysis of density-dependent patterns of population growth (and decline) over sufficiently long time intervals allows a refined comprehension of socioeconomic processes underlying demographic divides. Despite a long settlement history, empirical investigation of the role of density-dependence in the long-term evolution of human populations along urban–rural gradients is relatively scarce especially in Mediterranean countries. The present study performs a comparative analysis of population distribution in 1033 Greek municipalities identifying (and testing the significance of) density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population growth between 1961 and 2011, using spatially implicit and explicit econometric approaches. Results highlight a positive impact of density on population growth where settlements are concentrated. Assuming goodness of fit of the tested models as a proxy of density-dependence, the empirical findings clarify how density-dependent mechanisms were not significant all over the study period, being instead associated with specific phases of the city life cycle—basically urbanization with population concentrating in central locations. Density-dependence was less intense with suburbanization and counter-urbanization—when population sprawled over larger areas at medium–low density. An improved understanding of density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population growth contributes to rethink spatial planning, regional development strategies, and socio-demographic policies adapting to heterogeneous (and rapidly changing) local contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Food availability plays a significant role in modulating populations, especially in species relying on human-generated food sources like landfills. Sudden changes in food access can negatively impact vital parameters such as survival. For long-lived scavenger species, understanding how different age groups respond to these changes is essential since landfills are condemned to be closed. We studied the response in terms of apparent survival of griffon vultures to a decline in landfill organic matter after a waste treatment center became operational. The proportion of transients increased in all age groups. Survival dropped in juveniles and adult residents but increased in immature residents. These findings suggest that vultures permanently emigrated at higher rates due to intensified competition after the reduction in food. Intriguingly, immature resident vultures showed resilience, indicating the presence of high-quality individuals despite the food scarcity. The reasons behind reduced survival in adult residents during the final four study years remain unclear but are potentially linked to non-natural mortality. This research highlights the challenges facing scavengers as European landfill sites close, thereby stressing the need for food scarcity studies and timely conservation measures. Food availability shapes demographic parameters and population dynamics. Certain species have adapted to predictable anthropogenic food resources like landfills. However, abrupt shifts in food availability can negatively impact such populations. While changes in survival are expected, the age-related effects remain poorly understood, particularly in long-lived scavenger species. We investigated the age-specific demographic response of a Griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) population to a reduction in organic matter in a landfill and analyzed apparent survival and the probability of transience after initial capture using a Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber model on data from 2012–2022. The proportion of transients among newly captured immatures and adults increased after the reduction in food. Juvenile apparent survival declined, increased in immature residents, and decreased in adult residents. These results suggest that there was a greater likelihood of permanent emigration due to intensified intraspecific competition following the reduction in food. Interestingly, resident immatures showed the opposite trend, suggesting the persistence of high-quality individuals despite the food scarcity. Although the reasons behind the reduced apparent survival of resident adults in the final four years of the study remain unclear, non-natural mortality potentially plays a part. In Europe landfill closure regulations are being implemented and pose a threat to avian scavenger populations, which underlines the need for research on food scarcity scenarios and proper conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have extended previously published sets of simple sequence repeat markers for Synchytrium endobioticum, selected to be polymorphic for the German-standard isolates of pathotypes P1, P2, P6, P8, and P18. These markers also complement the extensive published information on DNA polymorphisms for the mitogenomes of Synchytrium endobioticum. This extended set of 35 markers representing 73 alleles differentiated 51 isolates from Europe and North America into three large, well-separated clusters and subclusters using dendrogram analysis, principal coordinates analysis (PCoA), and population substructure analysis using STRUCTURE 2.3.4 software. This suggests a limited number of introgressions of the wart disease pathogen into current potato growing areas, followed by recombination and admixture of populations through human activities. The new markers extend the published marker sets and are useful tools for future analyses of population structure and dynamics in Synchytrium endobioticum, which are necessary to understand the biology of the interaction between the pathogen and its potato host and to develop future control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genomic landscape of Stone Age Europe was shaped by multiple migratory waves and population replacements, but different regions do not all show similar patterns. To refine our understanding of the population dynamics before and after the dawn of the Neolithic, we generated and analyzed genomic sequence data from human remains of 56 individuals from the Mesolithic, Neolithic, and Eneolithic across Central and Eastern Europe. We found that Mesolithic European populations formed a geographically widespread isolation-by-distance zone ranging from Central Europe to Siberia, which was already established 10,000 years ago. We found contrasting patterns of population continuity during the Neolithic transition: people around the lower Dnipro Valley region, Ukraine, showed continuity over 4000 years, from the Mesolithic to the end of the Neolithic, in contrast to almost all other parts of Europe where population turnover drove this cultural change, including vast areas of Central Europe and around the Danube River. Genome-wide sequencing of 56 ancient hunter-gatherer and early farmer individuals from Stone Age Central and Eastern Europe reveals striking population continuity in the east in contrast to central Europe that displays extensive admixture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archaeological evidence suggests that the population dynamics of Mid-Holocene (Late Mesolithic to Initial Bronze Age, ca. 7000–3000 BCE) Europe are characterized by recurrent booms and busts of regional settlement and occupation density. These boom-bust patterns are documented in the temporal distribution of 14C dates and in archaeological settlement data from regional studies. We test two competing hypotheses attempting to explain these dynamics: climate forcing and social dynamics leading to inter-group conflict. Using the framework of spatially-explicit agent-based models, we translated these hypotheses into a suite of explicit computational models, derived quantitative predictions for population fluctuations, and compared these predictions to data. We demonstrate that climate variation during the European Mid-Holocene is unable to explain the quantitative features (average periodicities and amplitudes) of observed boom-bust dynamics. In contrast, scenarios with social dynamics encompassing density-dependent conflict produce population patterns with time scales and amplitudes similar to those observed in the data. These results suggest that social processes, including violent conflict, played a crucial role in the shaping of population dynamics of European Mid-Holocene societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of factors such as density dependence, food availability and weather are known to be important for predicting population change in a wide range of species. However, a challenge in ecology is understanding the contributory and interactive role of these drivers on populations. This is necessary to design effective conservation and management strategies. Using data from long‐term studies of five hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius populations in Europe, we tested the relationship between population density and weather and their impact on demographic rates. We used an integrated population modelling approach, estimating age‐specific overwinter survival, annual population growth and fecundity rates. We found strong negative effects of population density, precipitation and winter temperature on population growth rates. This suggests that warmer and wetter weather negatively affects dormouse survival for both adults and juveniles, but we found subtle differences in these effects between age classes. We also identified an interaction between weather measures and population density on age‐specific survival, possibly as a result of weather impacts during hibernation. Although we found low winter temperature was positively associated with population growth, we found evidence consistent with density dependence. We discuss our results in the context of woodland habitat conservation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of many common bird species are declining in Europe and effective conservation measures require an understanding of both the environmental and demographic causes of these changes. Capture–mark–recapture analysis of data from standardised ringing sites allows estimation of key demographic parameters, including productivity, survival and population age structure. Volunteers in countries across Europe undertake standardised mist-netting of passerines during the breeding season, from which estimates of these can be derived at large, national spatial scales. The Euring EuroCES programme collates these data in a common format to facilitate the continent-wide analysis of bird population dynamics. Here, I outline the broad characteristics of Constant Effort Site (CES) ringing, and introduce an R package cesr that provides tools to read in and manipulate these data and to produce annual indices of abundance, productivity and survival, for monitoring purposes. These data have been used to identify how climatic and environmental change can affect bird populations, particularly of migratory species, at national and continental scales. I then provide some suggestions for how the programme might further be expanded and integrated with other data sets to provide evidence for the drivers of bird population change and hence benefit informed conservation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declines in European bird populations are reported for decades but the direct effect of major anthropogenic pressures on such declines remains unquantified. Causal relationships between pressures and bird population responses are difficult to identify as pressures interact at different spatial scales and responses vary among species. Here, we uncover direct relationships between population time-series of 170 common bird species, monitored at more than 20,000 sites in 28 European countries, over 37 y, and four widespread anthropogenic pressures: agricultural intensification, change in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature change over the last decades. We quantify the influence of each pressure on population time-series and its importance relative to other pressures, and we identify traits of most affected species. We find that agricultural intensification, in particular pesticides and fertiliser use, is the main pressure for most bird population declines, especially for invertebrate feeders. Responses to changes in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature are more species-specific. Specifically, forest cover is associated with a positive effect and growing urbanisation with a negative effect on population dynamics, while temperature change has an effect on the dynamics of a large number of bird populations, the magnitude and direction of which depend on species' thermal preferences. Our results not only confirm the pervasive and strong effects of anthropogenic pressures on common breeding birds, but quantify the relative strength of these effects stressing the urgent need for transformative changes in the way of inhabiting the world in European countries, if bird populations shall have a chance of recovering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nothing puzzles sociologists of religion more than the reasons and the patterns behind religious change. In the literature on secularization processes, it is broadly accepted that ongoing modernization has undermined many of the pillars of institutional religions, leading to widespread religious decline. While a considerable body of research investigates the "why(s)" of this decline, the main focus of this paper is on the "how." Drawing on CARPE, a harmonized dataset concerning church attendance with almost 2 million observations spanning over 40 years in 39 European countries, this article disentangles the contributions of period change and cohort replacement to the general religious decline. It shows that this decline reflects a real population dynamic based on generational replacement. It is not historical events or developments affecting everyone that undermine religion: new and less religious cohorts are replacing old and more religious ones. Like many other population dynamics, this process is described by an S-shaped curve and applies—with different speeds and levels—to almost all the European countries considered herein. These findings suggest that the effects of the processes of modernization on the mechanisms of religious socialization should be scrutinized more carefully when studying the reasons behind religious decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although wild ungulate populations are heavily monitored throughout Europe, we understand little of how parasites affect population dynamics, and there is no systematic, long-term monitoring of parasite diversity and parasite loads. Such monitoring is in part hampered by a lack of time- and cost-effective assay methodologies with high sensitivity and good taxonomic resolution. DNA metabarcoding has been successfully used to characterize the parasitic nemabiome with high taxonomic resolution in a variety of wild and domestic hosts. However, in order to implement this technique in large-scale, potentially non-invasive monitoring of gastrointestinal parasitic nematodes (GIN), protocol optimization is required to maximize biodiversity detection, whilst maintaining time- and cost-effectiveness. Methods: Faecal samples were collected from a wild moose population and GIN communities were characterized and quantified using both parasitological techniques (egg and larva counting) and DNA metabarcoding of the ITS2 region of rDNA. Three different isolation methods were compared that differed in the volume of starting material and cell lysis method. Results: Similar nematode faunas were recovered from all samples using both parasitological and metabarcoding methods, and the approaches were largely congruent. However, metabarcoding assays showed better taxonomic resolution and slightly higher sensitivity than egg and larvae counts. The metabarcoding was not strictly quantitative, but the proportion of target nematode sequences recovered was correlated with the parasitologically determined parasite load. Species detection rates in the metabarcoding assays were maximized using a DNA isolation method that included mechanical cell disruption and maximized the starting material volume. Conclusions: DNA metabarcoding is a promising technique for the non-invasive, large-scale monitoring of parasitic GINs in wild ungulate populations, owing to its high taxonomic resolution, increased assay sensitivity, and time- and cost-effectiveness. Although metabarcoding is not a strictly quantitative method, it may nonetheless be possible to create a management- and conservation-relevant index for the host parasite load from this data. To optimize the detection rates and time- and cost-effectiveness of metabarcoding assays, we recommend choosing a DNA isolation method that involves mechanical cell disruption and maximizes the starting material volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many species experienced population turnover and local extinction during the Late Pleistocene. In the case of megafauna, it remains challenging to disentangle climate change and the activities of Palaeolithic hunter‐gatherers as the main cause. In contrast, the impact of humans on rodent populations is likely to be negligible. This study investigated which climatic and/or environmental factors affect the population dynamics of the common vole. This temperate rodent is widespread across Europe and was one of the most abundant small mammal species throughout the Late Pleistocene. Location: Europe. Taxon: Common vole (Microtus arvalis). Methods: We generated a dataset comprised of 4.2 kb long fragment of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from 148 ancient and 51 modern specimens sampled from multiple localities across Europe and covering the last 60 thousand years (ka). We used Bayesian inference to reconstruct their phylogenetic relationships and to estimate the age of the specimens that were not directly dated. Results: We estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor of all last glacial and extant common vole lineages to be 90 ka ago and the divergence of the main mtDNA lineages present in extant populations to between 55 and 40 ka ago, which is earlier than most previous estimates. We detected several lineage turnovers in Europe during the period of high climate variability at the end of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3; 57–29 ka ago) in addition to those found previously around the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. In contrast, data from the Western Carpathians suggest continuity throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) even at high latitudes. Main Conclusions: The main factor affecting the common vole populations during the last glacial period was the decrease in open habitat during the interstadials, whereas climate deterioration during the LGM had little impact on population dynamics. This suggests that the rapid environmental change rather than other factors was the major force shaping the histories of the Late Pleistocene faunas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The loss of biodiversity is shaping today's environment. Bird ringing is a citizen science research tool that can determine species population dynamics and trends over a large geographic area. We used a 17-year time series to assess population trends of 74 passerine species based on ringing data from autumn migration in Slovenia (south-central Europe). We defined seven guilds of species according to geographic location, ecological, migratory, breeding, and life-history traits. Almost all guilds showed declining trends, except for the group of species of northeastern European origin, which showed a stable trend. The greatest decline was in low-productivity wetland specialists. Forest birds, seed-eaters, and high-productivity species experienced the smallest declines. The general declines in avifauna across a range of life-history and behavioural traits, and across a range of spatial and ecological scales, suggest widespread environmental change in Europe. Our data indicates that recent trends are toward ecosystem homogeneity, with an impoverished avifauna, including a few species that are increasing in abundance. These are the species with higher productivity and flexible behaviour, such as short-distance migrants, that have the greatest chance of prevailing in the recently rapidly changing environment because of their ability to adapt to changes in a timely manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between the 1970s and the 1990s, cities in Southern Europe experienced a progressive delocalisation of population, settlements and activities over larger regions. Economic downturns have increasingly influenced more recent waves of metropolitan growth, shaping differentiated patterns of urban change. While some cities evolved towards accelerated population dynamics in central districts responding to re-urbanisation impulses, other agglomerations were intrinsically bounded in a sort of 'late suburbanisation', with demographic shrinkage of both inner districts and rural areas, and uneven expansion of suburban population. By providing a comprehensive interpretation of the socioeconomic mechanisms underlying recent urban expansion, this study illustrates a diachronic analysis of population dynamics over multiple spatial scales and time frames in a metropolitan region of Southern Europe (Athens, Greece) between 1999 and 2019. Natural population balance was investigated vis à vis selected territorial indicators using descriptive, inferential and multivariate statistics. Results of the analysis identify different social forces underlying suburban population growth during economic expansion (2000s) and recession (2010s), evidencing a distinctive response of local communities to economic downturns that depends mostly on the background context (affluent versus disadvantaged neighbourhoods). Given the multiplicity of territorial dimensions involved in urban growth, our findings highlight how economic downturns distinctively shape metropolitan development based on locally differentiated demographic dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) is the most important hantavirus species in Europe, causing the majority of human hantavirus disease cases. In central and western Europe, the occurrence of human infections is mainly driven by bank vole population dynamics influenced by beech mast. In Germany, hantavirus epidemic years are observed in 2‐ to 5‐year intervals. Many of the human infections are recorded in summer and early autumn, coinciding with peaks in bank vole populations. Here, we describe a molecular epidemiological investigation in a small company with eight employees of whom five contracted hantavirus infections in late 2017. Standardized interviews with employees were conducted to assess the circumstances under which the disease cluster occurred, how the employees were exposed and which counteractive measures were taken. Initially, two employees were admitted to hospital and serologically diagnosed with hantavirus infection. Subsequently, further investigations were conducted. By means of a self‐administered questionnaire, three additional symptomatic cases could be identified. The hospital patients' sera were investigated and revealed in one patient a partial PUUV L segment sequence, which was identical to PUUV sequences from several bank voles collected in close proximity to company buildings. This investigation highlights the importance of a One Health approach that combines efforts from human and veterinary medicine, ecology and public health to reveal the origin of hantavirus disease clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many mammalian species use photoperiod as a predictive cue to time seasonal reproduction. In addition, metabolic effects on the reproductive axis may also influence seasonal timing, especially in female small, short‐lived mammals. To get a better understanding of how annual cycling environmental cues impact reproductive function and plasticity in small, short‐lived herbivores with different geographic origins, we investigated the mechanisms underlying integration of temperature in the photoperiodic‐axis regulating female reproduction in a Northern vole species (tundra vole, Microtus oeconomus) and in a Southern vole species (common vole, Microtus arvalis). We show that photoperiod and temperature interact to determine appropriate physiological responses; there is species‐dependent annual variation in the sensitivity to temperature for reproductive organ development. In common voles, temperature can overrule photoperiodical spring‐programmed responses, with reproductive organ mass being higher at 10°C than at 21°C, whereas in autumn they are less sensitive to temperature. These findings are in line with our census data, showing an earlier onset of spring reproduction in cold springs, while reproductive offset in autumn is synchronized to photoperiod. The reproductive organs of tundra voles were relatively insensitive to temperature, whereas hypothalamic gene expression was generally upregulated at 10°C. Thus, both vole species use photoperiod, whereas only common voles use temperature as a cue to control spring reproduction, which indicates species‐specific reproductive strategies. Due to global warming, spring reproduction in common voles will be delayed, perhaps resulting in shorter breeding seasons and thus declining populations, as observed throughout Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The productivity of raptors is affected by different factors such as habitat, food supply, disturbance, weather conditions, and competition. Of the studied breeding parameters, success rate and breeding success significantly decreased over the years, while fledgling success and breeding density showed no trend. This study shed light on the main factors influencing the breeding success of a medium-sized raptor expanding in Europe from Asia. Modeling the factors determining the breeding success, we found that grassland availability, mean temperature during fledgling period and rainfall during nestling period influenced Long-legged buzzard reproduction (ΔAIC = 0.00, wi = 0.42, p = 0.03). The second significant model was described by weather factors excluding presence of grasslands (ΔAIC = 1.03, wi = 0.25, p = 0.05). Examining the explanatory factors, only presence of grassland in the territories demonstrated some effect on buzzard productivity. The assumption that other factors such as human disturbance, Souslik density, habitat diversity, and presence of competitors shaped buzzard's productivity did not find support in this study. This study supports the prediction of the future of Long-legged buzzard as it explored the effects of habitat and weather on its reproduction in the southern part of its distribution range. The conditions of a large-scale habitat alteration on one hand and, on the other hand, global climate change, manifested in increased rainfall during spring in Europe, draw an uncertain future for this species. Therefore, restoration of grasslands and proper habitat management, ensuring sufficient and diverse prey, is crucial for conservation of the Long-legged buzzard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Birds' performance in urban environments can be linked to time when they urbanized. • Earlier urbanized birds have more negative long-term population trends. • Rapid environmental changes in cities can explain these negative trends. • Population trends of urban birds also covary with their habitat niche and nest site. • More positive trends in species breeding in more open areas and closer to ground. The population dynamics of urban animals has been so far remarkably understudied. At the same time, urban species' population trends can provide important information on the consequences of environmental changes in cities. We modelled long-term population trends of 93 bird species breeding in urban areas in 16 European countries as a function of species' traits, characterising variability in their urbanization and ecology. We found that: (i) earlier colonisers have more negative population trends than recent colonisers; (ii) more urbanized open habitat species had more positive population trends than less urbanized open habitat species; (iii) highly urbanized birds breeding above the ground had more negative trends than highly urbanized ground breeders. These patterns can be explained by several processes occurring in cities as well as outside city borders. Namely, (i) pre-industrial colonisers might struggle to persist in rapidly changing urban areas, limiting their foraging and breeding opportunities of the birds. (ii) Open habitats are under pressure of intensive agricultural exploitation in rural areas, which may negatively affect populations of less urbanized birds. In contrast, urban areas do not experience such pressure keeping the trends of urbanized open habitat species more positive. (iii) Differences in population trends between highly urbanized ground and above-ground breeders suggest that the latter may lose their breeding opportunities in modern buildings that do not provide suitable breeding sites. Our results indicate that even once successful, city dwellers may not keep pace with changes in urban areas, but these areas may also provide suitable habitats for biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and reversing biodiversity decline in the Anthropocene requires robust data on species taxonomic identity, distribution, ecology, and population trends. Data deficits hinder biodiversity assessments and conservation, and despite major advances over the past few decades, our understanding of bee diversity, decline and distribution in Europe is still hampered by such data shortfalls. Using a unique digital dataset of wild bee occurrence and ecology, we identify seven critical shortfalls which are an absence of knowledge on geographic distributions, (functional) trait variation, population dynamics, evolutionary relationships, biotic interactions, species identity, and tolerance to abiotic conditions. We describe "BeeFall," an interactive online Shiny app tool, which visualizes these shortfalls and highlights missing data. We also define a new impediment, the Keartonian Impediment, which addresses an absence of high-quality in situ photos and illustrations with diagnostic characteristics and directly affects the outlined shortfalls. Shortfalls are highly correlated at both the provincial and national scales, identifying key areas in Europe where knowledge gaps can be filled. This work provides an important first step towards the long-term goal to mobilize and aggregate European wild bee data into a multi-scale, easy access, shareable, and updatable database which can inform research, practice, and policy actions for the conservation of wild bees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hansen's disease (leprosy), widespread in medieval Europe, is today mainly prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions with around 200,000 new cases reported annually. Despite its long history and appearance in historical records, its origins and past dissemination patterns are still widely unknown. Applying ancient DNA approaches to its major causative agent, Mycobacterium leprae, can significantly improve our understanding of the disease's complex history. Previous studies have identified a high genetic continuity of the pathogen over the last 1500 years and the existence of at least four M. leprae lineages in some parts of Europe since the Early Medieval period. Results: Here, we reconstructed 19 ancient M. leprae genomes to further investigate M. leprae's genetic variation in Europe, with a dedicated focus on bacterial genomes from previously unstudied regions (Belarus, Iberia, Russia, Scotland), from multiple sites in a single region (Cambridgeshire, England), and from two Iberian leprosaria. Overall, our data confirm the existence of similar phylogeographic patterns across Europe, including high diversity in leprosaria. Further, we identified a new genotype in Belarus. By doubling the number of complete ancient M. leprae genomes, our results improve our knowledge of the past phylogeography of M. leprae and reveal a particularly high M. leprae diversity in European medieval leprosaria. Conclusions: Our findings allow us to detect similar patterns of strain diversity across Europe with branch 3 as the most common branch and the leprosaria as centers for high diversity. The higher resolution of our phylogeny tree also refined our understanding of the interspecies transfer between red squirrels and humans pointing to a late antique/early medieval transmission. Furthermore, with our new estimates on the past population diversity of M. leprae, we gained first insights into the disease's global history in relation to major historic events such as the Roman expansion or the beginning of the regular transatlantic long distance trade. In summary, our findings highlight how studying ancient M. leprae genomes worldwide improves our understanding of leprosy's global history and can contribute to current models of M. leprae's worldwide dissemination, including interspecies transmissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantifies the processes involved in regulating the European eel population of Lough Neagh, a lake in Northern Ireland. The relationship between glass eel input and silver eel output for the 1923–1997 cohorts was best described by a Beverton–Holt stock recruitment model. Glass eel input time series was not complete and was thus derived from the relationship between catches elsewhere in Europe and Lough Neagh, together with the addition of stocked glass eel. Silver eel output was the sum of silver eel escapement, catch and yellow eel catch converted to silver eel equivalents. Natural mortality increased with glass eel density, ranging from 0.017 to 0.142 year−1. The mean carrying capacity increased from ≈3.25 M silver eels (≈26 kg ha−1) for the 1923–1943 cohorts to ≈5.0 M (≈40 kg ha−1) for the 1948–1971 cohorts before regressing back to ≈3.25 M. The total silver eel output was highest during the late 1970s/early 1980s at 35–45 kg ha−1 year−1 and lowest during the early years of the 20th century and is currently at 10–15 kg ha−1 year−1. The findings are discussed in relation to (a) the ecological changes that have occurred within the lough, associated with eutrophication and the introduction of roach (Rutilus rutilus L.), and (b) the decline of the wider European eel stock across its distribution range. The findings from this study have relevance for the wider management of the European eel stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gray wolf Canis lupus range in central Europe is dynamically expanding, reconnecting previously isolated populations. Thus, a recent paper has proposed to merge the current Baltic and Central European (CE) wolf management units, which are no longer isolated by distance. However, recent genetic findings indicate that these two populations are not genetically homogenous. Here we review the most recent data on wolf genetic structure in central Europe and show that even though the CE and Baltic wolves represent the same phylogeographic lineage, their demographic history has resulted in significant genetic structure between these two populations. While the groups are interconnected by moderate gene flow, it is not high enough to reduce the strong founder signal observed in the CE population, suggesting that population dynamics within the CE wolf range are largely independent from those of its source (Baltic) population. Consequently, a management unit combining the CE and Baltic wolves would not form a demographically coherent entity. Thus, we recommend that conservation management units maintain their separate status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of fertility trends along urban gradients contributes to assess socio‐demographic change at larger scales and the new geography of metropolitan growth at smaller scales. At larger scales, urban fertility was systematically lower than rural fertility; at smaller scales, suburbs were found to have higher fertility than central districts and the neighbouring rural areas. However, fertility divides have rarely been re‐contextualised in a long‐term perspective, considering the influence of exogenous factors that change over time with urban cycles. Assuming that spatial fertility variations are contextual to the development stage of a given region, the present study goes beyond the traditional 'urban‐suburban‐rural' divide and provides a long‐term vision that integrates small‐scale fertility variations and city life cycles. The study investigates spatial trends in a fertility index along a cycle from urbanisation to re‐urbanisation in a low‐fertility European context (Athens, Greece) using a multi‐scale analysis framework. The empirical findings of this study demonstrate that rural fertility was systematically lower than urban fertility apart from a short time interval (1950s). Fertility in urban locations was the highest during earlier stages of urbanisation. In suburban locations, fertility increased during late suburbanisation, stabilising (or declining slightly) with counter‐urbanisation. Re‐urbanisation was associated with a greater spatial heterogeneity in fertility rates. By documenting a differential response of fertility to urban cycles, our study re‐frames the relationship between natural population dynamics and metropolitan transitions, concluding that regional fertility divides are temporary outcomes of a specific ensemble of socio‐economic forces underlying a given urban model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem we address is motivated by the desire to regulate the size of the NW/SW European population of greylag geese Anser anser to meet a number of management objectives, including providing sustainable harvests and minimizing agricultural impacts and conflicts. Using simple models of population dynamics along with observed allometric relationships in birds, we have concluded that reported estimates of greylag goose population size and/or offtake at the flyway level are likely biased, perhaps severely so. Recognizing that resources are limited, we suggest that the most pressing need may be to investigate and strengthen monitoring protocols for offtake. We also describe a simple information-gap ('info-gap') decision model that could allow decision makers to make informed choices about changes in offtake until such time that more reliable monitoring information is available for greylag geese. With the info-gap decision model we were compelled to use a management criterion based on the growth rate of the flyway-wide population because true levels of abundance and offtake are unknown. Moreover, we emphasize that in the face of deep uncertainty about greylag goose abundance and offtake, decisions concerning management of the population carry a high risk of failing to meet conservation objectives, whatever they may be. While the info-gap analysis suggests an increase of offtake beyond the nominal level of 450 000 reported in the International Single Species Management Plan may be necessary to stabilize the population, we do not know the current level of offtake (i.e. whether it has recently changed from that last reported). Moreover, recent counts conducted by the range states and the International Waterbird Census suggest that the winter flyway population may no longer be increasing. For these reasons, management implications of the info-gap analysis must be viewed with caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In free-ranging reptile populations, bacterial, fungal, viral and parasitic pathogens may affect hosts through impairment in movements, thermoregulation, reproduction, survival, and population dynamics. The speckled dwarf tortoise (Chersobius [Homopus] signatus) is a threatened species that is mostly restricted to the Succulent Karoo biome in South Africa, and little information on pathogens of this species is available yet. We derived baseline parameters for five males and five females that were captured to genetically enhance a conservation breeding program in Europe. Upon collection of the tortoises, ticks were removed and identified. Immediately upon arrival in Europe, ocular, nasal, oral and cloacal swabs were taken for viral, bacteriological and mycological examinations. Fecal samples were collected before and 1 month after fenbendazole treatment, and analyzed for parasites. A panel of PCR, aiming to detect herpesviruses, adenoviruses and iridoviruses, was carried out. Results: Samples were negative for viruses, while bacteriological examination yielded detectable growth in 82.5% of the swabs with a mean load of 16 × 107 ± 61 × 108 colony forming units (CFU) per swab, representing 34 bacterial species. Cloacal and oral swabs yielded higher detectable growth loads than nasal and ocular swabs, but no differences between sexes were observed. Fungi and yeasts (mean load 5 × 103 ± 13 × 103 CFU/swab) were detected in 25% of the swabs. All pre-treatment fecal samples were positive for oxyurid eggs, ranging from 200 to 2400 eggs per gram of feces, whereas after the treatment a significantly reduced egg count (90–100% reduction) was found in seven out of 10 individuals. One remaining individual showed 29% reduction, and two others had increased egg counts. In five tortoises, Nycthocterus spp. and coccidian oocysts were also identified. Soft ticks were identified as Ornithodoros savignyi. Conclusions: Our baseline data from clinically healthy individuals will help future studies to interpret prevalences of microorganisms in speckled dwarf tortoise populations. The study population did not appear immediately threatened by current parasite presence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How environmental factors influence population dynamics in long-distance migrants is complicated by the spatiotemporal diversity of the environment the individuals experience during the annual cycle. The effects of weather on several different aspects of life history have been well studied, but a better understanding is needed on how weather affects population dynamics through the different associated traits. We utilise 77 years of data from pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to identify the most relevant climate signals associated with population growth rate. The strongest signals on population growth were observed from climate during periods when the birds were not present in the focal location. The population decline was associated with increasing precipitation in the African non-breeding quarters in the autumn (near the arrival of migrants) and with increasing winter temperature along the migration route (before migration). The number of fledglings was associated positively with increasing winter temperature in non-breeding area and negatively with increasing winter temperature in Europe. These possible carry-over effects did not arise via timing of breeding or clutch size but the exact mechanism remains to be revealed in future studies. High population density and low fledgling production were the intrinsic factors reducing the breeding population. We conclude that weather during all seasons has the potential to affect the reproductive success or population growth rate of this species. Our results show how weather can influence the population dynamics of a migratory species through multiple pathways, even at times of the annual cycle when the birds are in a different location than the climate signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gray wolf Canis lupus range in central Europe is dynamically expanding, reconnecting previously isolated populations. Thus, a recent paper has proposed to merge the current Baltic and Central European (CE) wolf management units, which are no longer isolated by distance. However, recent genetic findings indicate that these two populations are not genetically homogenous. Here we review the most recent data on wolf genetic structure in central Europe and show that even though the CE and Baltic wolves represent the same phylogeographic lineage, their demographic history has resulted in significant genetic structure between these two populations. While the groups are interconnected by moderate gene flow, it is not high enough to reduce the strong founder signal observed in the CE population, suggesting that population dynamics within the CE wolf range are largely independent from those of its source (Baltic) population. Consequently, a management unit combining the CE and Baltic wolves would not form a demographically coherent entity. Thus, we recommend that conservation management units maintain their separate status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Central Europe, water frog species coexist in assemblages consisting of Pelophylax lessonae , P. ridibundus and their hybridogenetic hybrid, P. esculentus. Population compositions are poorly understood, partly because of difficulties in distinguishing hybrids from parentals by means of morphology alone. Environmental change and human-mediated, cryptic introductions of non-native water frog species have modified local assemblages. In this contribution we examined the structure of nine water frog populations inhabiting mostly large fish ponds in the Upper Vistula river valley of southern Poland using morphology and PCR-based genotyping of single loci in the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes. We found four different water frog population compositions: two with only P. ridibundus , one composed of P. lessonae and P. esculentus , three with P. ridibundus and P. esculentus , and three containing all three water frog taxa. Historical data show that the area was previously inhabited by lessonae-esculentus populations. We propose that both ecological and genetic replacement by expanding P. ridibundus may have contributed to the decline of the former. Overall, 18% of P. ridibundus frogs contained introgressed P. lessonae mtDNA, however, the frequency of introgressants was most pronounced in populations with a high proportion of P. esculentus. Exotic water frogs were not detected in the study area. Our results bear significance for water frog population dynamics and conservation in Central Europe and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring for the detection of changes in population composition in these amphibians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archaeologically defined Upper Palaeolithic (UP, 45,000–10,000 years ago) "cultures" are often used as proxies to designate fossil populations. While recent genomic studies have partly clarified the complex relationship between European UP "cultures" and past population dynamics, they leave open numerous questions regarding the biological characterization of these human groups, especially regarding the Mid-UP period (MUP, 33,000–24,000 years ago), which encompasses a pan-European cultural mosaic (Gravettian) with several regional facies. Here, we analyse a large database of well-dated and well-preserved UP crania, including MUP specimens from South-West France (SWF) and Moravia, using 3D geometric morphometrics to test for human group affinities. Our results show that the Gravettian makers from these two regions form a remarkably phenetically homogeneous sample which is different from, and more homogeneous than, the Late UP sample. Those results are congruent with genomic studies indicating a genetic continuity within the Gravettian manufacturers and a discontinuity marked by the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Moreover, our study expands the geographical range of the MUP phenetic continuity to SWF, for which aDNA data are scarce, and clarifies the post-LGM European population structure in SWF, with a possible dual ancestry stemming from different LGM refugia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, numerous species have gained the advantage of urban ecosystems. The Eurasian Collared Doves (Streptopelia decaocto) has become widespread all across Europe along with human-altered habitats. In general, population levels are stable but numbers have locally decreased in the past few decades. In parallel, a new wave of urbanization came forward, so Wood Pigeons (Columba palumbus) entered urban ecosystems alongside with other Columbidae species. In this paper, our primary goal was to find any connection between habitat availability factors such as coniferous tree density and the population dynamics of two urbanized species. A locally emerging corvid species, the Hooded Crow (Corvus cornix) was also taken into consideration in influencing tree-nesting doves and pigeons as a primary nest predator. During the research period, we aimed to express the differences in habitat structure of two urban ecotypes by nesting tree availability and structure and to prove the power of predator presence in sampling sites. Our results showed that residential areas have a higher proportion of coniferous trees, as well as the high preference of residential areas by Wood Pigeons and Eurasian Collared Doves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drosophila suzukii is an invasive pest which became a serious threat to stone and berry fruit production in Europe. Knowledge about the host range of this pest and the effect of the succession of available hosts over time is however lacking in vineyard landscapes. Our study aimed to evaluate the host range of D. suzukii throughout the year in a vineyarddominated area. We assessed egg deposition and emergence on nine wild and cultivated plant species sampled in twenty vineyard landscapes during two years. The temporal dynamics of D. suzukii presence was observed on five fruit species (Viscum album L., Prunus avium L., Sambucus nigra L., Rubus fruticosus L. aggr. and Vitis vinifera L. cv. Merlot) with different phenologies. Infestations on host plants depended on the season and the proportion of other fruits species in the landscape around the vineyard plots. The data collected enabled us to provide estimates of the population dynamics among different hosts and generations of the pest and to propose a pattern of temporal succession of host plant species adapted to our regional and agroecological context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability for vegetative growth and development of generative organs often reflects an adaptation to the environment and may be a suitable proxy for understanding population dynamics of rare relict species. An example of such a plant is Carex lachenalii Schkuhr, an arctic-alpine species, in the temperate zone of Europe only occurring in isolated localities of high-elevation mountain ranges. We aimed to assess whether there were relationships between flower production and clonal growth of C. lachenalii, both at the tuft and plot level, and how co-occurring vegetation could modify this relationship. In the study we focused on population-level traits of C. lachenalii, vegetation traits and components of functional diversity. At the tuft level we found that the proportion of flowering ramets of C. lachenalii decreased with increasing diameter of the tuft. At the plot level, in snowbed vegetation C. lachenalii produced more flowering ramets. We suggest this is due to higher environmental stress, expressed by high importance of habitat filtering (low functional dispersion) in shaping species composition of co-occurring vegetation. In granite grasslands and milder environment (expressed by higher functional dispersion), C. lachenalii produced more vegetative ramets, which we suggest is a result of a more competitive environment. While in snowbeds investment in flowering ramets could promote successful persistence of C. lachenalii, survival of subpopulations occurring in the highly competitive conditions of granite grasslands may be uncertain due to potentially weak adaptation to competition with graminoids and dwarf shrubs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Rhagoletis (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprises more than 65 species distributed throughout Europe, Asia and America, including many species of high economic importance. Currently, there are three Rhagoletis species that infest fruits and nuts in Europe. The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (may have invaded Europe a long time ago from the Caucasian area of West Asia), and two invasive species (recently introduced from North America): the eastern American cherry fruit fly, R. cingulata , and the walnut husk fly, R. completa. The presence of different Rhagoletis species may enhance population dynamics and establish an unpredictable economic risk for several fruit and nut crops in Europe. Despite their excessive economic importance, little is known on population dynamics, genetics and symbiotic associations for making sound pest control decisions in terms of species-specific, environmental friendly pest control methods. To this end, the current paper (a) summarizes recently accumulated genetic and population data for the European Rhagoletis species and their association with the endosymbiont Wolbachia pipientis , and (b) explores the possibility of using the current knowledge for implementing the innovative biological control methods of sterile insect technique and incompatible insect technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European catfish Silurus glanis is an important fish species in both commercial and recreational fisheries. Catfish is a spreading species that was reported to potentially benefit from increasing temperatures. The goal of this study was to estimate long‐term changes in harvest rates of catfish in Central Europe. This study used individual mandatory angling logbooks collected by the Czech Fishing Union in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) over the course of years 1986–2017 (32 years) to assess harvest rates of catfish. This study discovered that harvest of catfish has been increasing over time. Moreover, rivers that previously showed zero harvested catfish are beginning to display higher harvest rates of catfish. Increasing average air temperature and angling effort in the study area have positively affected harvest rates of catfish. The increased harvest of catfish could not be reliably explained by intensive fish stocking. In conclusion, while other studies show that many fish species are negatively affected by human activities and therefore show decreased harvest rates, catfish angling seems to benefit from anthropogenic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine the causes of the variation in the seasonal dynamics of Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) in Central Europe, numbers of adults and larvae of this invasive species were recorded on trees (Acer, Betula, Tilia) throughout the growing seasons from 2011 to 2016. Each year beetles were collected every two weeks, using a standardized sweeping method. The seasonal dynamics was expressed as plots of abundance (number of individuals per 100 sweeps) against time (Julian day) and these plots (seasonal profiles) were compared in terms of their size (area under the seasonal profile curve), range, timing and height of the mode (maximum abundance). Timing and size of seasonal profiles varied among hostplants, years and sites. Abundance of larvae paralleled aphid occurrence and peak abundance of adults followed that of larvae 10 to 20 days later. Population dynamics before and after the peak were determined by dispersal. Adults arrived at sites before the start of aphid population growth and persisted there long after aphid populations collapsed. The abundance of H. axyridis decreased from 2011 to 2013 and then increased, achieving the previous levels recorded in 2015 and 2016. The variation in seasonal profiles revealed that H. axyridis, in terms of its response to environmental conditions, is a plastic species and this fl exibility is an important factor in its invasive success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine the causes of the variation in the seasonal dynamics of Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) in Central Europe, numbers of adults and larvae of this invasive species were recorded on trees (Acer, Betula, Tilia) throughout the growing seasons from 2011 to 2016. Each year beetles were collected every two weeks, using a standardized sweeping method. The seasonal dynamics was expressed as plots of abundance (number of individuals per 100 sweeps) against time (Julian day) and these plots (seasonal profiles) were compared in terms of their size (area under the seasonal profile curve), range, timing and height of the mode (maximum abundance). Timing and size of seasonal profiles varied among hostplants, years and sites. Abundance of larvae paralleled aphid occurrence and peak abundance of adults followed that of larvae 10 to 20 days later. Population dynamics before and after the peak were determined by dispersal. Adults arrived at sites before the start of aphid population growth and persisted there long after aphid populations collapsed. The abundance of H. axyridis decreased from 2011 to 2013 and then increased, achieving the previous levels recorded in 2015 and 2016. The variation in seasonal profiles revealed that H. axyridis, in terms of its response to environmental conditions, is a plastic species and this flexibility is an important factor in its invasive success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Yearling wild boar females can form stable groups in the absence of adult females. • Their group composition is not solely based on relatedness but also on familiarity. • They establish a more complex but not linear dominance hierarchy. Wild boar populations are strongly increasing across Europe. Although details of population dynamics and reproductive potential are known in this species, our knowledge about the social structure and a possible impact of hunting on this structure is poorly understood. Here we investigated the grouping behaviour of yearling wild boar females under enclosure housed conditions. All females were at the same age and older females (i.e., potential group leaders in a family group) were not present. The wild boar females were purchased at the age of six months from four different breeding sites. After a habituation period of ˜8 weeks the females were released randomly into two large enclosures, but ensuring that animals of different origin and body mass were evenly distributed. We analysed data from 111 female wild boars kept in two enclosures (enclosure east (EE): 72 females on ˜33 ha and enclosure west (EW): 39 females on ˜22 ha). Observations were carried out between March and August the year after birth (at the age of yearlings). The yearling females did not reproduce in the observation year. Data were analysed using social network analysis (SNA). We observed that the females formed stable groups during the study period. Group size did not differ significantly between the enclosures (group sizes between 16 and 20 individuals in the EE and between 11 and 17 individuals in the EW). Interestingly, the higher number of individuals lead to more instead of larger groups in the EE. Further, the group compositions were not based on the relatedness between the animals, as females from different breeding sites formed stable groups together. Rather, common habituation (familiarity) had a stronger effect on subsequent group formation. Within the groups we did not observe a linear hierarchy, although the groups were stable over time. Two females showed high betweenness values (i.e., an individual was often part of the shortest pathways in a network) compared with the average, indicating that females show differences in their connectivity within the social network of a population. Individuals with a high betweenness are very likely to rapidly spread diseases in a population and might play a key role in health management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine the causes of the variation in the seasonal dynamics of Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) in Central Europe, numbers of adults and larvae of this invasive species were recorded on trees (Acer, Betula, Tilia) throughout the growing seasons from 2011 to 2016. Each year beetles were collected every two weeks, using a standardized sweeping method. The seasonal dynamics was expressed as plots of abundance (number of individuals per 100 sweeps) against time (Julian day) and these plots (seasonal profiles) were compared in terms of their size (area under the seasonal profile curve), range, timing and height of the mode (maximum abundance). Timing and size of seasonal profiles varied among hostplants, years and sites. Abundance of larvae paralleled aphid occurrence and peak abundance of adults followed that of larvae 10 to 20 days later. Population dynamics before and after the peak were determined by dispersal. Adults arrived at sites before the start of aphid population growth and persisted there long after aphid populations collapsed. The abundance of H. axyridis decreased from 2011 to 2013 and then increased, achieving the previous levels recorded in 2015 and 2016. The variation in seasonal profiles revealed that H. axyridis, in terms of its response to environmental conditions, is a plastic species and this flexibility is an important factor in its invasive success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Salmonella spp are a major cause of food-borne outbreaks in Europe. We investigated a large multi-country outbreak of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis in the EU and European Economic Area (EEA).Methods: A confirmed case was defined as a laboratory-confirmed infection with the outbreak strains of S Enteritidis based on whole-genome sequencing (WGS), occurring between May 1, 2015, and Oct 31, 2018. A probable case was defined as laboratory-confirmed infection with S Enteritidis with the multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis outbreak profile. Multi-country epidemiological, trace-back, trace-forward, and environmental investigations were done. We did a case-control study including confirmed and probable cases and controls randomly sampled from the population registry (frequency matched by age, sex, and postal code). Odds ratios (ORs) for exposure rates between cases and controls were calculated with unmatched univariable and multivariable logistic regression.Findings: 18 EU and EEA countries reported 838 confirmed and 371 probable cases. 509 (42%) cases were reported in 2016, after which the number of cases steadily increased. The case-control study results showed that cases more often ate in food establishments than did controls (OR 3·4 [95% CI 1·6-7·3]), but no specific food item was identified. Recipe-based food trace-back investigations among cases who ate in food establishments identified eggs from Poland as the vehicle of infection in October, 2016. Phylogenetic analysis identified two strains of S Enteritidis in human cases that were subsequently identified in salmonella-positive eggs and primary production premises in Poland, confirming the source of the outbreak. After control measures were implemented, the number of cases decreased, but increased again in March, 2017, and the increase continued into 2018.Interpretation: This outbreak highlights the public health value of multi-country sharing of epidemiological, trace-back, and microbiological data. The re-emergence of cases suggests that outbreak strains have continued to enter the food chain, although changes in strain population dynamics and fewer cases indicate that control measures had some effect. Routine use of WGS in salmonella surveillance and outbreak response promises to identify and stop outbreaks in the future.Funding: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; Directorate General for Health and Food Safety, European Commission; and National Public Health and Food Safety Institutes of the authors' countries (see Acknowledgments for full list). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to explain how the large herbivore (large vertebrate, megafauna – terrestrial taxa with adults > 45 kg) population density changed during abrupt postglacial climate and environmental change. The Lateglacial and Early Holocene (14,600–8300 years ago) were represented by various environmental and climate changes and a transition from a cold to a warm climate, with subsequent changes in flora and fauna. Using Lake Āraiši as a case study (Latvia, northeastern Europe), local to regional vegetation was reconstructed by analyzing plant macroremains and pollen from the lake sediment profile. Here, we present the first dung fungus spore-based qualitative reconstruction of large herbivore population density from northeastern Europe. Although there was no distinct pattern of large herbivore population variability during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene, higher densities were suggested during warm and relatively stable climatic and environmental conditions. Our findings imply that herbivores did not constantly live at high densities around one lake but rather were dynamic and moved/migrated according to their needs. Because large herbivores reintroduced today live in reserves (commonly fixed areas surrounded by physical borders), they might be more vulnerable to rapid climatic and environmental change compared to those mammals that lived during the Lateglacial and Early Holocene. Hence, they would have only two possible options – adapt or go extinct. • We present the first dung fungus spore-based qualitative reconstruction from Europe. • Herbivores did not constantly live at high densities around one lake. • Higher densities were during warm and stable climatic and environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demography plays an important role in domains related to socio-cultural complexity, subsistence strategies, and cultural ecology. Although the Middle Ages in Central Europe (ca. 500–1500 CE) was a period of major political, economic, and socio-cultural change arising from the establishment of the first principalities and the adoption of Christianity by the West Slavic tribes, our knowledge about its population dynamics is based only on archaeological studies and rare historical sources. This study is based on skeletal data. We predicted population growth and fertility levels using the proportion of non-adults in skeletal samples quantified with the D5+/D20+ ratio (the ratio of the number of skeletons older than 5 years to the number of skeletons of those older than 20 years). We adopted a new methodology that accounts for stochastic variation in small-sized skeletal samples. We computed the D5+/D20+ ratio in a large sample of 59 skeletal samples (12,805 individuals) from four chronological stages of the Middle Ages. Assuming that the D5+/D20+ ratio is a growth and fertility rate indicator, we predicted the growth and total fertility rates of the communities from which the skeletal samples were drawn and reconstructed their profiles over the chronological frame between 500 and 1500 CE. Our main result is that the growth and fertility rates increased during the politically and economically favourable period of the Great Moravian Empire (9th century CE) and then dropped significantly after the collapse of the whole system in the Post-Great Moravian Period (900–1200 CE). We estimate that the decline in fertility represented a decrease of 1.0–1.2 children per woman, on average. We hypothesize that the observed fertility change might be a response to deteriorated conditions, which decreased overall reproductive success. • We analyzed a population dynamics during the Middle Ages in Central Europe using age-at-death ratios in 59 skeletal samples. • We adopted a new methodology that accounts for stochastic variation in small-sized skeletal samples. • The growth and fertility rates increased during the favourable period of the Great Moravian Empire (9th century CE). • Both rates dropped significantly after the collapse of the whole system in the Post-Great Moravian Period (900–1200 CE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(232 words) HIV-1 non-B infections have been increasing in Europe for several years. In Germany, subtype A belongs to the most abundant non-B subtypes showing an increasing prevalence of 8.3% among new infections in 2016. Here we trace the origin and examine the current spread of the German HIV-1 subtype A epidemic. Bayesian coalescence and birth-death analyses were performed with 180 German HIV-1 pol-sequences and 528 related and publicly available sequences to reconstruct the population dynamics and fluctuations for each of the transmission groups. Our reconstructions indicate two distinct sources of the German subtype A epidemic, with an Eastern European and an Eastern African lineage both co-circulating in the country. A total of 13 German-origin clusters were identified; among these, 6 clusters showed recent activity. Introductions leading to further countrywide spread originated predominantly from Eastern Africa when introduced before 2005. Since 2005 however, spreading introductions have occurred exclusively within the Eastern European clade. Moreover, we observed changes in the main route of subtype A transmission. The beginning of the German epidemic (1985- 1995) was dominated by heterosexual transmission of the Eastern African lineage. Since 2005 transmissions among German MSM are increasing and are associated with the Eastern European lineage. Infections among people who inject drugs dominated between 1998 and 2005. Our findings on HIV-1 subtype A infections provide new insights into the spread of this virus and extend the understanding of the HIV epidemic in Germany. Importance (150 words): HIV-1 subtype A is the second most prevalent subtype worldwide, with a high prevalence in Eastern Africa and Eastern Europe. However, an increase of non-B infections including subtype A infections has been observed in Germany and other European countries. There has simultaneously been an increased flow of refugees into Europe and especially into Germany, raising the question of whether the surge in non-B infections resulted from this increased immigration or whether German transmission chains are mainly involved. This study is the first comprehensive subtype A study from a western European country analyzing in detail its phylogenetic origin, the impact of various transmission routes and its current spread. The results and conclusions presented provide new and substantial insights for virologists, epidemiologists, and the general public health sector. In this regard, they should be useful to those authorities responsible for developing public health intervention strategies to combat the further spread of HIV/AIDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African swine fever (ASF) is caused by ASF virus (ASFV) and is currently circulating in the eastern part of Europe posing a serious risk regarding transmission to western European countries. Wild boar is a main driver of the transmission and persistence of ASFV in the endemic infected countries in Europe. Some European countries free from ASF, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, have limited population sizes of wild boar, but have large swine productions. In these countries, the patterns of transmission and persistence of ASFV in the existing wild boar population, in case of introduction of ASFV, are unknown. It is important to get a better understanding of ASFV in these wild boar populations, in order to better manage the existing wild boar population and thereby minimize the risk of virus introduction and transmission to domestic pigs, in case of an ASFV incursion. We created an agent-based spatio-temporal model and simulated the transmission of ASFV within Danish wild boar populations, using actual landscape data. The model was run with 50 and 100 wild boar groups used as initial population sizes, respectively, either distributed across the southern part of the mainland (Jutland) or across both the southern and middle parts of Jutland, where wild boar groups are believed to exist. At first, the model was run without ASFV for 25 years to assess wild boar population dynamics in both regions. Thereafter, ASFV was added to the model 1 year after initiation and run for up to another 4 years. The model predicted that wild boar populations may increase drastically over the next 25 years, if wild boar groups were distributed across both southern and middle Jutland and no mitigation actions were taken, while the population sizes will be restricted, if groups were distributed only across the southern part of Jutland. The density of the population is an important factor affecting the transmission and persistency of the disease. Model results indicated that ASF epidemics in the simulated populations would generally persist for few months. However, due to the high stochasticity of the process, in certain situations the epidemics may last for more than one year, posing a serious risk of ASFV introduction to domestic pigs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine the causes of the variation in the seasonal dynamics of Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) in Central Europe, numbers of adults and larvae of this invasive species were recorded on trees (Acer, Betula, Tilia) throughout the growing seasons from 2011 to 2016. Each year beetles were collected every two weeks, using a standardized sweeping method. The seasonal dynamics was expressed as plots of abundance (number of individuals per 100 sweeps) against time (Julian day) and these plots (seasonal profiles) were compared in terms of their size (area under the seasonal profile curve), range, timing and height of the mode (maximum abundance). Timing and size of seasonal profiles varied among hostplants, years and sites. Abundance of larvae paralleled aphid occurrence and peak abundance of adults followed that of larvae 10 to 20 days later. Population dynamics before and after the peak were determined by dispersal. Adults arrived at sites before the start of aphid population growth and persisted there long after aphid populations collapsed. The abundance of H. axyridis decreased from 2011 to 2013 and then increased, achieving the previous levels recorded in 2015 and 2016. The variation in seasonal profiles revealed that H. axyridis, in terms of its response to environmental conditions, is a plastic species and this flexibility is an important factor in its invasive success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A population of Northern crested newts, Triturus cristatus, was studied for 19 consecutive years (1998-2016) using individual recognition allowing the quantification of population dynamics and survival rates. Starting with a relatively high estimated number of adults (251 ± 55) and a long stable phase (144 ± 25) the population dropped six-fold (39 ± 10) by the end of the study. The population failed to recruit in nine years including a reproduction failure over four consecutive years of the 19-year study period. The yearly adult survival ranged from 18 to 98% with no differences between the sexes. Likely related to relative favourable survival rates of individuals older than 4+ of age and adult longevity of more than 16 years the population persisted. More long-term studies are urgently needed to assess how population dynamics are subject to local environmental factors or demographic patterns of the population itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is the most harmful plant parasitic nematode on trees in Asia and Europe and is the causal agent of the so-called pine wilt disease of susceptible conifer species, mainly Pinus spp. The disease has occurred only outside its natural range of distribution (North America) or on nonnative pine species. In greenhouse trials using saplings, Pinus sylvestris was one of the most susceptible European pine species. To examine the significance of these sapling-based analyses concerning the population dynamics and pathogenicity for mature P. sylvestris trees, investigations using seven- to eight-year-old trees were carried out. The trees were artificially inoculated using a suspension of 10,000 B. xylophilus in 600 µl of tap water per tree. For the population dynamics investigation, the pines were divided into 48 segments for nematode extraction. The development of wilt symptoms as well as physiological changes were observed until tree death. During the population dynamics investigation, B. xylophilus was located at the inoculation site and in adjacent segments during the first 11 days after inoculation. On day 16, B. xylophilus was distributed throughout the entire stem, adjacent branch segments, root collar and roots before any external wilt symptoms appeared. With increasing pine wilt disease, B. xylophilus was finally found in all wood and root segments. High nematode densities appeared. Shortly before tree death, the treetop showed several nematode-free segments. The rest of the stem and adjacent branch segments and root collar were highly nematode-infested. During the pathogenicity investigation, all B. xylophilus-inoculated pines died within 84 days. The significant decline in the water potential in the needles was steeper and more strongly correlated with increasing wilt symptoms compared to a droughtstressed variant. However, the decline in the water potential in the needles started earlier in the drought-stressed pine variant. In conclusion, the population dynamics of B. xylophilus in seven- to eight-year-old P. sylvestris trees and the pathological reactions of the pines were comparable to those observed in assays with saplings, although delayed in reaching a population peak and developing wilt symptoms. Therefore, P. sylvestris saplings are good indicator trees for B. xylophilus population dynamics and pathogenicity investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine the causes of the variation in the seasonal dynamics of Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) in Central Europe, numbers of adults and larvae of this invasive species were recorded on trees (Acer, Betula, Tilia) throughout the growing seasons from 2011 to 2016. Each year beetles were collected every two weeks, using a standardized sweeping method. The seasonal dynamics was expressed as plots of abundance (number of individuals per 100 sweeps) against time (Julian day) and these plots (seasonal profiles) were compared in terms of their size (area under the seasonal profile curve), range, timing and height of the mode (maximum abundance). Timing and size of seasonal profiles varied among hostplants, years and sites. Abundance of larvae paralleled aphid occurrence and peak abundance of adults followed that of larvae 10 to 20 days later. Population dynamics before and after the peak were determined by dispersal. Adults arrived at sites before the start of aphid population growth and persisted there long after aphid populations collapsed. The abundance of H. axyridis decreased from 2011 to 2013 and then increased, achieving the previous levels recorded in 2015 and 2016. The variation in seasonal profiles revealed that H. axyridis, in terms of its response to environmental conditions, is a plastic species and this fl exibility is an important factor in its invasive success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brucellosis is a major public health problem still prevalent as a neglected endemic zoonosis requiring proactive attention in many communities worldwide. The present study involved analysis of Brucella field strains submitted for typing to the Italian National Reference Laboratory for Brucellosis from 2007 to 2015. Strains were identified at the species and biovar levels by classic and molecular techniques according to the World Organisation for Animal Health Manual. In total, 5,784 strains were typed: 3,089 Brucella abortus (53.4%), 2,497 B. melitensis (43.2%), 10 B. ovis (0.2%), 181 B. suis (3.1%), and 7 B. ceti (0.1%). The 2,981 strains from cattle were typed as B. abortus biovars 1, 3, and 6 (90.1%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (9.9%). The 318 strains from water buffalo were typed as B. abortus biovars 1, 3 (95.9%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (4.1%). The 2,279 strains from sheep and goats were typed as B. abortus biovars 1 and 3 (4.3%); B. melitensis biovars 1, 3, (95.3%); and B. ovis (0.4%). The 173 strains from wild boar were typed as B. suis biovar 2 (98.3%) and B. melitensis biovar 3 (1.7%). The 11 strains from pigs were typed as B. suis biovar 2. The 13 strains from humans were typed as B. melitensis biovar 3. The two strains from horses were typed as B. abortus biovar 1, while the seven strains from dolphins were typed as B. ceti. This additional knowledge on the epidemiology of brucellosis in Italy may be useful to formulate policies and strategies for the control and eradication of the disease in animal populations. The animal species affected, biovars typed, geographical origins, and spatial distributions of isolates are herein analyzed and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]