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This study aims at investigating associations between COVID-19 mortality and SARS-COV-2 variants spread during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. For 38 European countries, data on numbers of COVID-19 deaths, SARS-COV-2 variants spread through time using Nextstrain classification, demographic and health characteristics were collected. Cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths and height of COVID-19 daily deaths peak during the second wave of the pandemic were considered as outcomes. Pearson correlations and multivariate generalized linear models with selection algorithms were used. The average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant was found to be a significant predictor of cumulative COVID-19 deaths within two months before the peak and between 1 January–25 February 2021, as well as of the deaths peak height considering proportions during the second wave and the pre-peak period. The average proportion of EU2 variant (S:477 N) was a significant predictor of cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the pre-peak period. Our findings suggest that spread of a new variant of concern B.1.1.7 had a significant impact on mortality during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and that proportions of EU2 and B.1.1.7 variants were associated with increased mortality in the initial phase of that wave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed at estimating the real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality, with adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 variants spread and other factors across Europe and Israel. Time series analysis. Time series analysis of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths was performed using non-linear Poisson mixed regression models. Variables such as variants' frequency, demographics, climate, health, and mobility characteristics of thirty-two countries between January 2020 and April 2021 were considered as potentially relevant adjustment factors. The analysis revealed that vaccination efficacy in terms of protection against deaths was 72%, with a lower reduction of the number of deaths for B.1.1.7 vs non-B.1.1.7 variants (70% and 78%, respectively). Other factors significantly related to mortality were arrivals at airports, mobility change from the prepandemic level, and temperature. Our study confirms a strong effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination based on real-life public data, although lower than expected from clinical trials. This suggests the absence of indirect protection for non-vaccinated individuals. Results also show that vaccination effectiveness against mortality associated with the B.1.1.7 variant is slightly lower than that with other variants. Lastly, this analysis confirms the role of mobility reduction, within and between countries, as an effective way to reduce COVID-19 mortality and suggests the possibility of seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to determine predictors of the height of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) daily deaths' peak and time to the peak, to explain their variability across European countries. For 34 European countries, publicly available data were collected on daily numbers of COVID-19 deaths, population size, healthcare capacity, government restrictions and their timing, tourism and change in mobility during the pandemic. Univariate and multivariate generalised linear models using different selection algorithms (forward, backward, stepwise and genetic algorithm) were analysed with height of COVID-19 daily deaths' peak and time to the peak as dependent variables. The proportion of the population living in urban areas, mobility at the day of first reported death and number of infections when borders were closed were assessed as significant predictors of the height of COVID-19 daily deaths' peak. Testing the model with a variety of selection algorithms provided consistent results. Total hospital bed capacity, population size, the number of foreign travellers and the day of border closure were found to be significant predictors of time to COVID-19 daily deaths' peak. Our analysis demonstrated that countries with higher proportions of the population living in urban areas, countries with lower reduction in mobility at the beginning of the pandemic and countries having more infected people when closing borders experienced a higher peak of COVID-19 deaths. Greater bed capacity, bigger population size and later border closure could result in delaying time to reach the deaths' peak, whereas a high number of foreign travellers could accelerate it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]