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The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is an invasive pest threatening crop production and food security worldwide. High concerns are linked to the potential establishment of the species in Europe. The high migratory capacity of S. frugiperda causes concerns about the potential impacts of transient populations invading new areas from suitable hotspots. In the present work, we developed and used a physiologically-based demographic model to quantitatively assess the risks of S. frugiperda in Europe. The risks were assessed considering a best-, a median-, and a worst-case scenario. The Mediterranean coastal areas of Southern Europe resulted particularly suitable for the establishment of the species, with suitable areas reaching even higher latitudes, in the worst-case scenario. In Europe, up to four generations per year were predicted. The predicted yearly average number of moths per trap per week (± standard deviation) was 5 (± 4), 17 (± 5), and 139 (± 22) in the best, median-, and worst-case assessment scenarios, respectively. Model results showed that Southern and Central Europe up to the 48th parallel north might be exposed to the risk of transient populations. Depending on the latitude and on the period of arrival of the propagule, 1–2 transient generations per year might be expected. The model can be used to define strategies for reducing the risks of establishment of the pest at the country level. Predictions on the dynamics and phenology of the pest can also be used to support its management at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovative sustainable food systems should be defined to meet the future food demand (both in terms of quality and quantity) and to overcome the threats that current food systems are posing to the natural capital. To achieve this ambitious goal, the transition to sustainable food habits should be supported by methodological frameworks and modelling tools promoting human and environmental health. The proposed framework provided a standardized system-based approach for the analysis of environmental impacts of food systems, assessed in terms of use of natural resources (water and ecological footprint) and GHG emissions (carbon footprint). The framework is applied to the assessment of water footprint of cradle-to-gate European food consumption, resulting in an average water footprint consumption of 3291 (±557) litre (per day per person). The case study showed the potentiality of our framework as a support tool for policy making in designing specific incentives for the reduction of environmental impacts related to the agri-food sector, as well as in the evaluation of agronomic strategies in the light of pursuing the environmental sustainability of food commodities production. The main novelty presented in the case study is to use food consumption data coming from surveys harmonized across European countries to assess the real food demand. [Display omitted] • Transition towards sustainable food system requires system-based standardized assessment tool. • Sustainability assessment of food systems should follow a multidimensional approach. • Large-scale assessment at country, consumer or food category level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] A stratified dispersal model for the chestnut gall wasp invasion in Europe was developed. [•] The model component of the local or short distance dispersal and long distance dispersal were estimated. [•] The model accurately reproduced the observed spatio-temporal dynamics of the chestnut gall wasp in Europe. [•] The model has applicability to the management strategies evaluation to control the chestnut gall wasp invasion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Simple Summary: Spittlebugs are the most abundant and widespread xylem-sap feeder insects in Europe. They are also the only proven vectors of the notorious bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) in the Old World. Xf inhabits the xylem of hundreds of plant species and is the causal agent of severe diseases to several crop plants, including grapevines. Since the spread of Xf depends on insect transmission, the study of vector abundance and ecology in the vineyard is of key importance in assessing the risk of disease spread to grapevines. The aim of this work was to gain information on Xf vector ecology and abundance in the vineyard agroecosystem. Herbaceous cover of inter-rows and headlands was colonized in spring by nymphs and in late summer/autumn by adults for oviposition, while woody hosts (grapevines and trees in the surroundings) represented a refuge during summer. Three spittlebug species were collected: Philaenus spumarius, Neophilaenus campestris, and Aphrophora alni, but the latter two species were very rare on the grapevine canopy. The presence of P. spumarius for an extended period on the grapevine canopy, together with its known ability to transmit Xf to grapevine, underlines the importance of preventing the introduction of Xf in Xf-free areas and of monitoring health conditions of grapevines in the Xf-infected areas of Europe. Spittlebugs (Hemiptera: Aphrophoridae) are the vectors of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) in Europe. Xf may cause severe epidemics in cultivated plants, including grapevines. To assess the threat represented by the bacterium to grapevines, detailed information on the vectors' phenology, density, and ecology in vineyards is needed. The aim of the present work was to describe spittlebug diversity, phenology, and host-plant association in the vineyard agroecosystem. Two separate field surveys of nymphal and adult spittlebug populations, i.e., a two-year survey of a single site and a one-year survey of three sites, were performed in vineyards of northwestern Italy in three consecutive years. Philaenus spumarius was the most common species, reaching average nymph densities on herbaceous cover up to 60–130 nymphs/m2. Adults were sampled on grapevines from May to September, with a peak in June (up to 0.43 insects/sweep). Herbaceous cover was colonized after egg hatching and in late summer for oviposition, while wild woody hosts represented a refuge during summer. The results show that spittlebugs can reach high population levels in vineyards, at least in the areas where the ground is covered by herbaceous plants for the whole season and the use of insecticides is moderate. The extended presence of P. spumarius adults on grapevines represents a serious risk factor for the spread of Xf. The scenarios of Xf establishment in vineyards in northwestern Italy and Europe are discussed in relation to the abundance, phenology, and plant association of spittlebugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We developed a stage-structured population dynamics model for Aedes albopictus. • The model includes temperature-dependent biodemographic functions. • We predict Ae. albopictus potential distribution, abundance and activity in the EU. The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the most invasive disease vectors worldwide. The species is a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses and other severe parasites and pathogens threatening human health. The capacity of this mosquito to colonize and establish in new areas (including temperate regions) is enhanced by its ability of producing diapausing eggs that survive relatively cold winters. The main drivers of population dynamics for this mosquito are water and air temperature and photoperiod. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model that predicts the potential distribution, abundance and activity of Asian tiger mosquito in Europe. The model includes a comprehensive description of: i) the individual life-history strategies, including diapause, ii) the influence of weather-driven individual physiological responses on population dynamics and iii) the density-dependent regulation of larval mortality rate. The model is calibrated using field data from several locations along an altitudinal gradient in the Italian Alps, which enabled accurate prediction of cold temperature effects on population abundance, including identification of conditions that prevent overwintering of the species. Model predictions are consistent with the most updated information on species' presence and absence. Predicted population abundance shows a clear south-north decreasing gradient. A similar yet less evident pattern in the activity of the species is also predicted. The model represents a valuable tool for the development of strategies aimed at the management of Ae. albopictus and for the implementation of effective control measures against vector-borne diseases in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]