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To mitigate climate change a renewable energy transition is needed. Existing power systems will need to be redesigned to balance variable renewable energy production with variable energy demand. We investigate the meteorological sensitivity of a highly-renewable European energy system using large ensemble simulations from two global climate models. Based on 3 × 2000 years of simulated weather conditions, daily wind and solar energy yields, and energy demand are calculated. From this data, 1-, 7- and 14-days events of extreme low renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall are selected. Energy shortfall is defined as the residual load, i.e. demand minus renewable production. 1-day low energy production days are characterised by large-scale high pressure systems over central Europe, with lower than normal wind speeds. These events typically occur in winter when solar energy is limited due to short day lengths. Situations of atmospheric blocking lead to long lasting periods of low energy production, such 7- and 14-days low production events peak late summer. High energy shortfall events occur due to comparable high pressure systems though now combined with below normal temperatures, driving up energy demand. In contrast to the low energy production events, 1-, 7- and 14-days high shortfall events all occur mid-winter, locked to the coldest months of the year. A spatial redistribution of wind turbines and solar panels cannot prevent these high-impact events, options to import renewable energy from remote locations during these events are limited. Projected changes due to climate change are substantially smaller than interannual variability. Future power systems with large penetration of variable renewable energy must be designed with these events in mind. • Meteorological sensitivity of a highly-renewable European power system. • Variability of weather leads to societal risk related to future energy security. • Two types of extremes: low energy production & high energy shortfall (1, 7 & 14-days). • Wind droughts and winter cold pose threats to a secure and continuous energy supply. • Large ensemble simulations provide new ways to investigate extreme impact events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts from the observation that development projects that create various forms of environmental injustice in Europe are an integral part of the process of biospheric expulsions, that is of pushing out groups from adequate land, water or air, as described by Saskia Sassen (2014). Apart from the environmental, socio-economic and health-impacts of ecologically destructive projects, there is an added dimension of concern that has been less obvious in the past, but tends to become increasingly pronounced in a warming world. Is it possible that accumulating environmental inequalities and forms of injustice can create new and "unnatural" vulnerabilities to the projected climate change impacts? The fi rst question that we tackle is whether environmental justice confl icts in Europe tend to take place disproportionately in climate hotspot areas, which are geographic spaces with above-average social sensitivity, potential vulnerability, potential social impact, potential environmental impacts or response capacity (ESPON, 2011). The second question concerns the distribution of diff erent characteristics of projects and of their associated confl icts in climate hotspot vs. non-hotspot areas. The fi nal goal is to establish, at a preliminary level, the emergence of a climate edge in Europe, a spatial confi guration in which vulnerability to climate change impacts is shaped by processes of biospheric expulsion, as postulated at a general level by Sassen. For the analysis, the most current data on environmental justice confl icts (444) from the Environmental Justice Atlas and ESPON climate impact projections, mapped on the Climate Adapt platform, are used. The expected result is to provide a preliminary description of the postulated climate edge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities across Mediterranean Europe face common climatic threats. They are highly vulnerable and very likely to suffer losses and damages due to heat waves, droughts, wildfires, landslides, and extreme coastal events. To this date, however, there is no systematic understanding of how cities in Mediterranean Europe are preparing to adapt to these impacts. To address this question, we analyse local adaptation plans in 73 cities located in 51 regions across 9 European countries along the Mediterranean Sea (France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Croatia, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta). We also investigate upper levels of planning to understand the influence of policy environments. Across the sample, 67 % of regions have adopted a plan, but only 30 % of the cities. The most common climate-related hazards these cities prepare for are extreme temperatures and rainfall, followed by drought and water scarcity, as well as floods and landslides. Without legal obligations, neither regional nor national adaptation policy frameworks seem to influence the development of urban plans. In some cases, cities are ahead of national policy. This paper sheds light on the progress of local adaptation planning in Mediterranean Europe and paves the way for further research in this climate-threatened geographical area. [Display omitted] • ME faces severe climate hazards, faster and stronger than global averages. • We analyse adaptation plans in 73 cities across 51 regions and 9 ME countries. • 30 % of cities and 67 % of regions in Mediterranean Europe have adaptation plans. • Regions plan more for adaptation when action plans from national governments are in place. • Common concerns are urban temperature and rainfall, drought, and water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To evaluate the climate sensitivity of model-based forest productivity estimates using a continental-scale tree-ring network. Location Europe and North Africa (30-70° N, 10° W-40° E). Methods We compiled close to 1000 annually resolved records of radial tree growth for all major European tree species and quantified changes in growth as a function of historical climatic variation. Sites were grouped using a neural network clustering technique to isolate spatiotemporal and species-specific climate response patterns. The resulting empirical climate sensitivities were compared with the sensitivities of net primary production ( NPP) estimates derived from the ORCHIDEE-FM and LPJ-wsl dynamic global vegetation models ( DGVMs). Results We found coherent biogeographic patterns in climate response that depend upon (1) phylogenetic controls and (2) ambient environmental conditions delineated by latitudinal/elevational location. Temperature controls dominate forest productivity in high-elevation and high-latitude areas whereas moisture sensitive sites are widespread at low elevation in central and southern Europe. DGVM simulations broadly reproduce the empirical patterns, but show less temperature sensitivity in the boreal zone and stronger precipitation sensitivity towards the mid-latitudes. Main conclusions Large-scale forest productivity is driven by monthly to seasonal climate controls, but our results emphasize species-specific growth patterns under comparable environmental conditions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that carry-over effects from the previous growing season can significantly influence tree growth, particularly in areas with harsh climatic conditions - an element not considered in most current-state DGVMs. Model-data discrepancies suggest that the simulated climate sensitivity of NPP will need refinement before carbon-cycle climate feedbacks can be accurately quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The European Alps are one region of the world where climate-driven changes are already perceptible, as exemplified by the general retreat of mountain glaciers over past decades. Temperatures have risen by up to 2°C since 1900 particularly at high elevations, a rate that is roughly three times the global-average 20th century warming. Regional climate models suggest that by 2100, winters in Switzerland may warm by 3–5°C and summers by 6–7°C according to greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, while precipitation is projected to increase in winter and sharply decrease in summer. The impacts of these levels of climatic change will affect both the natural environment and a number of economic activities. Alpine glaciers may lose between 50% and 90% of their current volume and the average snowline will rise by 150m for each degree of warming. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the Alps, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. This paper will thus provide an overview of the current state of knowledge on climatic change and its impacts on the Alpine world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the European summer heat wave of 2003, with special emphasis on the first half of August 2003, jointly with its significant societal and environmental impact across Western and Central Europe. We show the pattern of record-breaking temperature anomalies, discuss it in the context of the past, and address the role of the main contributing factors responsible for the occurrence and persistence of this event: blocking episodes, soil moisture deficit, and sea surface temperatures. We show that the anticyclonic pattern corresponds more to an anomalous northern displacement of the North Atlantic subtropical high than a canonical blocking structure, and that soil moisture deficit was a key factor to reach unprecedented temperature anomalies. There are indications that the anomalous Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have contributed to the heat wave of 2003, whereas the role of SST anomalies in other oceanic regions is still under debate. There are methodological limitations to evaluate excess mortality due to excessive temperatures; however, the different studies available in the literature allow us to estimate that around 40,000 deaths were registered in Europe during the heat wave, mostly elderly persons. Despite previous efforts undertaken by a few cities to implement warning systems, this dramatic episode has highlighted the widespread un-preparedness of most civil and health authorities to cope with such large events. Therefore, the implementation of early warning systems in most European cities to mitigate the impact of extreme heat is the main consequence to diminish the impact of future similar events. In addition to mortality (by far the most dramatic impact), we have also analyzed the record-breaking forest fires in Portugal and the evidence of other relevant impacts, including agriculture and air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological onset dates are closely linked to temperature. In this study, we analysed a phenological dataset collected during the COST 725 Action 'Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications', which contained more than 36 000 phenological time series for Europe covering 1971-2000. We analysed the temperature response of the phenological phases, their regional differences, and the relationship between the sizes of the local temperature and phenology trends in connection with a high-resolution climate grid of Europe. As an external factor, we examined the influence of human population density on phenology. Our analyses confirm differences in behaviour between annual and perennial plants in Europe. The average temperature response of perennial plants was significantly greater (-4.2 d °C-1) than that of annual agricultural crops (-3.0 d °C-1). The correlation between temperature and phenology trends was greatest for leaf unfolding of fruit trees and deciduous trees (r = -0.63 and -0.46, respectively). The geographic coordinates (latitude and longitude) had only a modest influence on the mean onset of the groups of phases; however, inclusion of altitude improved the models for some groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study on the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and vegetation greenness in Europe. It was found that low (high) vegetation activity in spring and summer was induced by positive values of NAO. This was said to be associated with NAO's impact on winter precipitation and the dependence of spring and summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on water availability. Meanwhile, winter NAO was observed to induce high (low) NDVI in spring and low (high) NDVI in summer in Northeastern Europe.

Airborne pollen monitoring is an effective tool for studying the reproductive phenology of anemophilous plants, an important bioindicator of plant behavior. Recent decades have revealed a trend towards rising airborne pollen concentrations in Europe, attributing these trends to an increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and temperature. However, the lack of water availability in southern Europe may prompt a trend towards lower flowering intensity, especially in herbaceous plants. Here we show variations in flowering intensity by analyzing the Annual Pollen Index (API) of 12 anemophilous taxa across 12 locations in the Iberian Peninsula, over the last two decades, and detecting the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results revealed differences in the distribution and flowering intensity of anemophilous species. A negative correlation was observed between airborne pollen concentrations and winter averages of the NAO index. This study confirms that changes in rainfall in the Mediterranean region, attributed to climate change, have an important impact on the phenology of plants., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)