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From summer to autumn in 2022, a severe drought lasted in southern China, posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological systems. This study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought event. It shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions, which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ). Differently, the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea, which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern China. Further investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Niña-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022, while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intraseasonal variations in anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) events, which are characterized by synoptic-scale irreversible meridional overturning of potential vorticity over the North Pacific, and their modulations on tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP), were investigated in this study. Spectral analysis of the AWB frequency shows significant variability within a period of 7–40 days, closely linked to the subseasonal variability of the jet stream intensity. When the jet stream weakens at its exit region over the North Pacific, the AWB occurs along with an equatorward Rossby wave flux. This AWB is preceded by an intensified Rossby wave train across Eurasia 12 days earlier. Simultaneously, a high potential vorticity intrusion is advected in the upper troposphere from the North Pacific toward the WNP, and suppressed TC activities are observed over the WNP open ocean where decreased moisture and temperature, subsidence, and increased vertical wind shear prevail. In contrast, anomalously enhanced convection, positive relative vorticity, and ascending motion are found in the southwestern quadrant of the AWB, facilitating enhanced TC activities over the South China Sea (SCS). Further analysis indicates that the impact of the AWB on TC activities over the WNP is robust and independent of the tropical intraseasonal convection over the tropical Indian Ocean and SCS, even though it accompanies the increased AWB frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted the abrupt lake expansion and increased runoff, significantly reshaping the water resource redistribution in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, the dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Here, analysis of observations, large ensemble simulations, and pacemaker experiments indicates that this decadal increase was mainly attributed to the synergistic effects of the external forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions) and the Pacific internal variability, while the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean play a secondary role. Observations and simulations show that thermodynamic and dynamic effects work collaboratively to this increase. Remarkably, the upper-level dynamic convergence over the ITP would be enhanced through teleconnection and atmospheric dynamic feedback when involving the Pacific internal variability, resulting in more precipitation occurrence. Further analyses show that the enhanced stationary Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia and strengthened transient eddy activity over North Pacific could contribute to the anomalous cyclone over the ITP and weakened East Asian westerly jet, which built a pathway for the external forcing and Pacific internal variability collaboratively impacting the decadal increase in precipitation in the ITP. These results can improve our understanding of ITP summer precipitation attribution and can be applied to emergent constraints on future decadal precipitation prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on statistical analysis using observations and idealized model simulations, previous studies have revealed the potential response of early‐winter atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies to November Ural blocking (UB) anomalies. Using a large number of coupled simulations, this study found that the response is sensitive to the intensity of November mid‐latitude westerly jet over Eurasia. Stronger‐than‐normal November UB without a significantly weakened westerly jet could not cause significant atmospheric response in early‐winter. By contrast, stronger‐than‐normal November UB with a significantly weakened jet would be followed by a warmer Arctic‐colder Eurasia (WACE) pattern in December. The significantly weakened westerly jet favors stronger upward propagation of planetary waves, which causes stronger weakening and longer persistence of the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists into December and propagates downward into the troposphere interfering with planetary waves (especially wavenumber‐1). The lead‐lag UB‐WACE linkage modulated by mid‐latitude jet may have implications for sub‐seasonal predictability. Plain Language Summary: Observations and idealized model simulations have shown that strong Ural blocking (UB) anomalies in November can induce the "warmer Arctic, colder Eurasia" anomaly in the following December. In this study, a large number of coupled simulations are employed. The results show that the impact of November UB on early‐winter Arctic‐Eurasian temperature is sensitive to the intensity of November mid‐latitude (around 60°N) westerly jet over Eurasia. When November UB anomalies are accompanied by a significantly weakened mid‐latitude westerly jet, early‐winter would experience a warmer Arctic‐colder Eurasia pattern. The significantly weakened westerly wind waveguide is favorable for stronger upward propagation of planetary waves caused by UB anomalies, which leads to persistent atmospheric response in the following December. Key Points: Early‐winter atmospheric response to November Ural blocking (UB) anomalies is sensitive to the background state of westerly jetStrong UB with sufficiently weakened westerly jet in November can induce a warmer Arctic‐colder Eurasia pattern in DecemberThe weakened westerly wind waveguide promotes stronger upward propagation of planetary waves forced by UB anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations have shown subseasonal reversal of temperature anomalies between early and late winter over Eurasia, which is distinct from the seasonal mean condition. Based on the reanalysis data, the 1800‐year control simulation and the 40‐member ensemble simulations in 1920–2100 from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (CESM‐LE), this study reveals that the reversal of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies between early and late winter is one of the dominant and intrinsic features of the Arctic‐Eurasian winter climate. Such a reversal is characterized by "colder Arctic, warmer Eurasia" in December (January–February) and "warmer Arctic, colder Eurasia" in January–February (December). Robust climate dynamic processes associated with the reversal of SAT anomalies, including subseasonal reversals of anomalies in the Ural blocking, midlatitude westerlies, and stratospheric polar vortex, are found in both reanalysis data and CESM simulations, indicating the important role of internal atmospheric variability. Further analysis reveals that the reversal of Ural blocking anomalies in late December can be a potential precursor for the reversal of SAT anomalies in late winter. The reversal of midlatitude westerly wind anomalies associated with the Ural blocking can affect upward propagation of planetary‐scale waves especially with wavenumber 1, subsequently promoting the contribution of stratospheric polar vortex to the reversal of SAT anomalies in late winter over the Arctic‐Eurasian regions. Such a troposphere‐stratosphere pathway triggered by the perturbation of tropospheric circulations is confirmed by the CESM‐LE simulations, and it may be useful for the prediction of subseasonal reversal of SAT anomalies. Plain Language Summary: Observations show that Eurasia may experience subseasonal reverse temperature anomalies from early to late winter. For example, the warmer‐than‐normal conditions in early winter can change to colder‐than‐normal conditions in late winter. Such a reverse temperature anomaly in Eurasia is usually concurrent with a reverse one in the Arctic. The "colder Arctic, warmer Eurasia" pattern in early winter followed by "warmer Arctic, colder Eurasia" pattern in late winter is robustly detected in climate model simulations, indicating that the subseasonal reversal of temperature anomalies is one of the intrinsic features of the Arctic‐Eurasian climate. This feature is associated with robust climate dynamic processes, including subseasonal reversals of the anomalies in the Ural blocking, the midlatitude westerly winds, and the stratospheric polar vortex. Because the Ural blocking can trigger the troposphere‐stratosphere interaction, the reversal of Ural blocking anomalies in late December can be a potential precursor for the reversal of surface air temperature anomalies in late winter. Key Points: Reversal of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies between early and late winter is an intrinsic feature of the Arctic‐Eurasian climateThe changes of Ural blocking in late December may indicate whether the SAT in late winter will be reversed to early winterRobust climate dynamic processes associated with such a reversal of SAT are found in both reanalysis data and long‐term model simulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Haze pollution frequently occurs in North China almost every winter month. However, many previous studies pointed out that the interannual–decadal variations of haze in February were inconsistent with that in early winter, which demonstrated an evident subseasonal change in haze pollution. In this study, we found a close relationship between the "warm Arctic–cold Eurasia" (WACE) pattern in January and the weakened February haze pollution in North China according to monthly composites from 1980 to 2019. Associated with the warming signal in sea ice and the cooling signal in Eurasian soil temperatures, the WACE pattern sustained from January to February. The combined signal of sea ice and soil temperature anomalies and its associated anomalous cyclonic circulations over North China provided an environment conducive to the dispersion of pollutants. The relationship between the WACE pattern and the cyclonic circulation anomaly could also be detected from the large-ensemble CMIP6 simulations. Furthermore, the relationship between the January WACE pattern and the reduction of February haze pollution has been prominently enhanced since the late 1990s, which accurately corresponds to the deep Arctic warming that has emerged since the late 1990s. Significance Statement: Haze pollution frequently occurs in North China almost every winter month, but with an apparent subseasonal change. Climate anomalies in the mid- to high latitudes could regulate the variations in haze through atmospheric teleconnection. Our study found a relationship between the "warm Arctic–cold Eurasia" (WACE) pattern in January and the weakened February haze pollution in North China. The lingering signal of the WACE was associated to the anomalous cyclonic circulations over North China in February, which was conducive to the dispersion of pollutants. Furthermore, the relationship between the WACE pattern and February haze pollution has been prominently enhancing since the late 1990s, which accurately corresponds to the emergence of the deep Arctic warming accompanied by the strengthened Eurasian cooling. This investigation is of great significance for subseasonal haze prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past 40 years, the global annual mean surface temperature has experienced a nonuniform warming, differing from the spatially uniform warming simulated by the forced responses of large multimodel ensembles to anthropogenic forcing. Rather, it exhibits significant asymmetry between the Arctic and Antarctic, with intermittent and spatially varying warming trends along the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and a slight cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific. In particular, this "wavy" pattern of temperature changes over the NH midlatitudes features strong cooling over Eurasia in boreal winter. Here, we show that these nonuniform features of surface temperature changes are likely tied together by tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), via a global atmospheric teleconnection. Using six reanalyses, we find that this teleconnection can be consistently obtained as a leading circulation mode in the past century. This tropically driven teleconnection is associated with a Pacific SST pattern resembling the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and hereafter referred to as the IPO-related bipolar teleconnection (IPO-BT). Further, two paleo-reanalysis reconstruction datasets show that the IPO-BT is a robust recurrent mode over the past 400 and 2000 years. The IPO-BT mode may thus serve as an important internal mode that regulates high-latitude climate variability on multidecadal time scales, favoring a warming (cooling) episode in the Arctic accompanied by cooling (warming) over Eurasia and the Southern Ocean (SO). Thus, the spatial nonuniformity of recent surface temperature trends may be partially explained by the enhanced appearance of the IPO-BT mode by a transition of the IPO toward a cooling phase in the eastern Pacific in the past decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interannual variability of winter precipitation over the Three River Source (TRS) region in China based on precipitation observations collected at stations in the TRS region and reanalysis datasets for the period of 1980–2015. The results suggest that the TRS winter precipitation has distinct interannual variability with discordant trends in different months, that is, an increasing trend is found in November and February, a decreasing trend is found in other winter months, and interannual variations in precipitation are different in different months. The mechanisms for the interannual variation in monthly precipitation over the TRS region are significantly different in different winter months. The interannual variability of TRS precipitation in November is modulated by an anomalous westerly water vapour transport (WVT) branch. This anomalous WVT branch is related to a North Atlantic‐Europe‐Tibetan Plateau (NA‐E‐TP) wave‐train that originates in the North Atlantic due to the ocean–atmosphere interaction. In December, a circum‐global teleconnection (CGT) wave‐train can induce anomalous westerly WVT in the TRS region, resulting in increased precipitation there. This CGT wave‐train is triggered by warm SST anomalies in the central‐eastern tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The interannual variability of TRS precipitation in January and February is affected by southwesterly WVT anomalies over the TRS region, which are associated with a southeastward propagating wave‐train over Eurasia caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In March, the interannual variability of TRS precipitation is modulated by the leading mode of the Eurasian circulation that resembles the Scandinavian (EU1) pattern, which can cause anomalous southwesterly WVT in the TRS region. In winter, the characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies, weather systems, and atmospheric circulations associated with interannual variations of monthly precipitation in the TRS region are different for individual winter months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The lake area in the Inner Mongolian Plateau (IMP) has experienced a rapid reduction in recent decades. Previous studies have highlighted the important role of intensive human activities in IMP lake shrinkage. However, this study found that climate change–induced summer precipitation variations can exert great influences on the IMP lake area variations. The results suggest that the decadal shift in the IMP summer precipitation may be the predominant contributor to lake shrinkage. Further analysis reveals that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) play important roles in the IMP summer precipitation variations. The AMO seems to provide beneficial large-scale circulation fields for the decadal variations in the IMP summer precipitation, and the Arctic SIC decline is favorable for weakening the IMP summer precipitation intensity after the late 1990s. Evidence indicates that the vorticity advection related to the Arctic SIC decline can result in the generation of Rossby wave resources in the midlatitudes. Then, the strengthened wave resources become favorable for enhancing the stationary wave propagation across Eurasia and inducing cyclonic circulation over the Mongolia–Baikal regions, which might bring more rainfall northward and weaken the IMP summer precipitation intensity. Consequently, due to the decreased rainfall and gradual warming after the late 1990s, the lake area in the IMP has experienced a downward trend in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Summer surface O3 pollution has rapidly intensified in China in the recent decade, damaging human and ecosystem health. In 2017, the summer mean maximum daily average 8 h concentration of ozone was greater than 150 µ g m -3 in North China. Based on the close relationships between the O3 concentration and the meteorological conditions, a daily surface O3 weather index was constructed, which extends the study period to the historical period before 2007 and the projected future. Here, we show that in addition to anthropogenic emissions, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), a major globally atmospheric teleconnection pattern, influences surface O3 pollution in North China on a timescale of climate. The local meteorological conditions associated with the EU positive phase supported intense and efficient photochemical reactions to produce more surface O3. The associated southerlies over North China transported surrounding O3 precursors to superpose local emissions. Increased solar radiation and high temperatures during the positive EU phase dramatically enhanced O3 production. Furthermore, due to the close connection between the preceding May Arctic sea ice (SI) and summer EU pattern, approximately 60 % of the interannual variability in O3 -related weather conditions was attributed to Arctic sea ice to the north of Eurasia. This finding will aid in understanding the interannual variation in O3 pollution, specifically the related meteorological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals an intensified influence of December Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent January surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and North Africa in recent decades. The connection is statistically insignificant during 1957/58-1979/80 (P1), which becomes statistically significant during 1989/90-2011/12 (P2). The possible causes are further investigated. Associated with positive December AO during P2, significant anomalous anticyclone emerges over the central North Atlantic, which is accompanied with significant westerly and easterly anomalies along 45°−65°N and 20°−40°N, respectively. This favors the significant influence of December AO on the subsequent January SAT and atmospheric circulation over Eurasia and North Africa via triggering the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly that persists into the subsequent January. By contrast, the December AO-related anomalous anticyclone during P1 is weak and is characterized by two separate centers located in the eastern and western North Atlantic. Correspondingly, the westerly and easterly anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean are weak and the-related tripole SST anomaly is not well formed, unfavorable for the persistent impact of the December AO into the subsequent January. Further analyses indicate that the different anomalous anticyclone associated with the December AO over the North Atlantic may be induced by the strengthened synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks over the North Atlantic, which may be related to the interdecadal intensification of the storm track activity. Additionally, the planetary stationary wave related to the December AO propagates from surface into upper stratosphere at mid-latitudes during P2, which further propagates downward to the troposphere and causes anomalous atmospheric circulation in the subsequent January. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between October Eurasian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The snow cover located in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal plays an important role in the winter air temperature anomaly. More (less) eastern Siberia snow in October can cause an atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern in which the atmospheric pressure is higher (lower) than normal in the polar region and lower (higher) in the northern mid-high latitudes. Due to the persistence of the eastern Siberia snow from October to the following winter, the winter atmospheric anomaly is favorable (unfavorable) to the widespread movement of cold air masses from the polar region toward the northern mid-high latitudes and, hence, lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China. Simultaneously, when the October snow cover is more (less), the SST in the northwestern Pacific is continuously lower (higher) as a whole; then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced (weakened), favoring the lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The asymmetry in the teleconnection of the central Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is discussed using observations and model simulations. Observations indicate that the winter SAT over central Eurasia (30°-70°E, 30°-50°N) shows significant positive anomalies during the warm AMO period but weak and insignificant anomalies in the cold AMO period. In general, the warm winters in central Eurasia are associated with large-scale negative sea level pressure anomalies in Europe, anomalous southwesterly winds at 850 hPa over Europe, the '+ − +' geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa in the south of Greenland, northern Europe, western Asia, and the slant north-south '+ −' pattern jet stream anomalies at 200 hPa in the north and south of the Caspian Sea. Reverse patterns occur during cold winters. These statistically significant features are observed in the warm phase of AMO. Reversed circulation anomalies are observed during the cold phase of AMO; however, these anomalies are weak and not statistically significant. Furthermore, the asymmetry in the atmospheric response to AMO is well supported by simulations with a suite of GFDL atmospheric model idealized experiments and four CMIP5 models historical experiments. Both observations and simulations indicate that Rossby waves propagating from the North Atlantic eastward to Eurasia emerge in the warm AMO and disappear in the cold AMO. Thus, the different propagations of Rossby waves, induced by the different surface thermal conditions of the warm and cold AMO, are the potential connection between the North Atlantic Ocean and central Eurasian climate, and may explain the asymmetry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This study investigated the potential connection of the October-December Arctic Oscillation ( AO-OND) with the following January East Asian temperature extremes and the possible mechanisms. It was found that the extreme cold (warm) events are less (more) frequent in January over East Asia following a positive phase of AO-OND, which might be attributed to the intrinsic persistence of AO-OND in stratosphere and the memory of Eurasian snow cover. It is revealed that the barotropic structure of AO-OND could extend to stratosphere. By the following January, wave activities propagate from stratosphere downwards to upper troposphere, then bent equatorwards to mid-latitudes. Consequently, the January circumpolar jet (polar vortex) gets strengthened (colder) because the equatorward-pointing (upwards) wave activities correspond to poleward meridional eddy momentum (eddy heat) flux. In such a way, the anomalous AO-OND persists into the following January. On the other hand, positive phase of AO-OND causes significant surface warming in most parts of Eurasia, leading to Eurasian snow melt. The October-December snow melt has intrinsic climatic memory and further weakens the January Siberian High through reducing surface albedo. Besides, the surface warming in North Europe because of reduced surface albedo caused by snow melt could stimulate a Rossby wave train propagating eastwards across Eurasia, which restrains the blocking events around Ural region. In such a context, the incidence of extreme warm (cold) events over East Asia is more (less) frequent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We present observational evidence and model simulation demonstrating a significant change in the early 1990s in the relationships of the autumn Eurasian snow depth ( AESD) and the autumn Arctic sea ice cover ( ASIC) with the East Asian winter monsoon ( EAWM). A weakening of the AESD-EAWM relationship occurs over a period when the ASIC-EAWM relationship strengthens. The possible physical process can be described as follows: before the early 1990s, the positive AESD anomaly tends to persist into winter. In contrast, after the early 1990s, the negative ASIC anomaly tends to excite a stationary Rossby wave across the North America-Atlantic sector in autumn. This wave train propagates eastward in winter and favours the winter Eurasian snow depth ( WESD) increase. The WESD anomaly is associated with the strengthening and expansions of the Siberian high west and north across the pole and the zonally elongated cold anomalies from Europe to the Far East. It has a stable connection with the EAWM throughout the period observed (1979-2006) and may serve as a bridge linking AESD or ASIC with the EAWM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How the remote influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may vary in a warmer future remains a hot topic but still elusive. Based on the outputs from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4, here we investigated the variations of ENSO teleconnections in boreal winter during the Last Interglacial (LIG), which shares large similarities with the projected climatic features in the 21st century. Our results suggested that the ENSO-temperature teleconnections on average weakened by ∼13.4% during the LIG relative to the preindustrial, whereas the response of precipitation amplified by ∼5.0%. However, there are large regional discrepancies in the variations of ENSO teleconnections in terms of the sign and amplitude. For example, we observed significant ENSO-temperature relationship changes at the high latitudes during the LIG, with a depressed linkage over northern North America but enhanced linkage over the high latitudes of Eurasia. The most profound change in ENSO-precipitation teleconnection occurred over the tropics during the LIG, characterized by a weaker response over the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas a stronger response over the Maritime Continent and adjacent oceans. Regarding atmospheric circulations, we found that the ENSO-driven Walker Circulations over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean shifted westward during the LIG, whereas the descending branch of the ENSO-driven Atlantic Walker Circulation shifted eastward. Our results provide a model-based scenario for the variations of ENSO teleconnections during the LIG, but the underlying mechanisms deserve further investigation in the future. • ENSO-temperature teleconnections on average weakened during the Last Interglacial. • ENSO-precipitation teleconnections on average enhanced during the Last Interglacial. • There are large regional discrepancies in the variations of ENSO teleconnections. • ENSO-driven Pacific Walker Circulation moved westward during the Last Interglacial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] The "Arctic warming–Eurasia cooling" trend has significantly affected the changes of weather patterns and climate extremes at lower latitudes and has attached huge attentions. However, this winter trend weakened from 2012 to 2021. In the same time period, subseasonal reversals between the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (WACE) and cold Arctic–warm Eurasia (CAWE) patterns became more frequent and the subseasonal intensity of the WACE/CAWE pattern was still comparable with that from 1996 to 2011. This study highlighted the co-occurrence of this subseasonal variability and trend changes in the WACE/CAWE pattern based on long-term reanalysis datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations. The preceding sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and Indian oceans had significant primary impacts on the WACE/CAWE pattern in early and late winter, respectively, which were confirmed by numerical experiments based on the Community Atmosphere Model and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Their coordination worked to effectively modulate the subseasonal phase reversal between the WACE and CAWE patterns just like what happened in the winters of 2020 and 2021. Findings of the present study imply that subseasonal changes need to be considered in the prediction of climate extremes at mid- to low latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hot drought events often have great impacts on society, the ecosystem, and agriculture. Northeastern China (NEC) is the ganary of China, thus it is quite important to investigate the characteristics of summer hot drought event (SHDE) over NEC and find the possible mechanisms. Based on the observation and the reanalysis datasets, we found that the decline of Barents Sea ice (SICBS) in March is closely related to the occurrence of summer SHDE over NEC during 1997-2016. The decline of SICBS can lead to decrease of snow depth over the western Eurasia (SDWEA) in April. On the one hand, the decline of SDWEA in April can regulate the atmospheric circulation during May-June that lead to dry soil in Yangtze River valley and northern China regions, which is further linked to SHDE over NEC. On the other hand, both the decline of SICBS in March and the decrease of SDWEA in April favor the positive Polar/Eurasia teleconnection pattern and dry soil over NEC in JA, which provides favorable atmospheric circulation patterns for SHDE over NEC. All of these results can be verified by the simulations from the Community Earth System Model and the numerical experiments that based on the version 4 of Community Atmosphere Model. Consequently, the Barents Sea ice in March might be a potential predictor for the SHDE over NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO), which depicts a most dominant large-scale seesaw between the mid-latitudes and Arctic atmospheric mass, influences climate over Eurasia, North America, eastern Canada, North Africa, and the Middle East, especially during boreal winter. This review, with a special focus on the East Asian region, summarizes the climatic impact of AO. It begins with a description of the spatial structure of AO and the related climatic anomalies. The relationship of winter AO with the simultaneous East Asian winter climate (e . g. the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), cold surges/cold waves, and precipitation) and its instability are then followed. It is generally accepted that, through impacting the Siberian high, westerly wind, blocking frequency, Rossby wave activities etc., a positive phase of winter AO is associated with a weaker-than-normal EAWM, warmer conditions in East Asia, less frequency of cold surges/cold waves, increasing (decreasing) of winter precipitation in south (north) parts of East Asia; and vice versa. Notably, the pathways that the winter AO exerts impact are different. Besides, the AO-EAWM and the AO-cold surges/cold wave linkages have spatial and temporal variations. Subsequently, an overview of the inter-seasonal linkages between the East Asian summer monsoon with the preceding spring/winter AO is presented. There is a generally accepted knowledge that a positive spring AO is followed by significant positive summer precipitation anomalies in southern China and western Pacific as well as negative ones in the lower valley of Yangtze River and southern Japan. Finally, this review synthesizes the impact of winter/spring AO on the East Asian spring climate (e.g. dust storm, temperature, and precipitation) and discusses the potential predictive value of AO. The projection of AO and its impact on the East Asian climate in future has been barely explored. We conclude that, along with the long-term observation data, the linkage between AO and the East Asian climate on the sub-seasonal and decadal time scales, how tropical and extratropical forcing modulates the linkage and how the linkage evolves under future warming conditions should be more investigated. Notably, the change of AO during 1990–2013 winters could explain the Eurasian cooling but failed to explain the Arctic warming. In the future, the effect of Ural blocking on Arctic and Eurasian climate and their connection might be a hot topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]