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Background: Predicting the likely size of future SARS-CoV-2 waves is necessary for public health planning. In England, voluntary "plan B" mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown. Methods: We developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours ahead of the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/COVID Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we predicted the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave. Results: Over 95% of survey respondents (NALSPAC = 2686 and NTwins = 6155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with vaccination and using home testing kits reported most frequently. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to "plan B". We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 12,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about severity and vaccine effectiveness. The actual number of deaths was 15,208 (26 November 2021–1 March 2022). We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%. Conclusions: Predicting future infection burden is affected by uncertainty in disease severity and vaccine effectiveness estimates. In addition to biological uncertainty, we show that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is an infectious condition caused by an allergen-induced hypersensitivity response to the mite Psoroptes ovis. Infestation results in clinical disease, economic loss and welfare issues in many sheep-producing countries. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence and spatial pattern of sheep scab on contiguous farms, using both self-reported clinical outbreak history (2012–2020) and serological testing with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (2021/2022). Methods: Farms included in the study were located in three regions of known high scab prevalence in North, Central and Southwest England. In total, 254 farms completed both a questionnaire, which provided the clinical scab history of the farm, and submitted results of serological testing with the ELISA. Results: A scab outbreak was reported by 17.4% (± confidence interval [CI]: 4.6%; n = 48) of farms in 2020 based on clinical diagnosis; scab was diagnosed by the ELISA on 25.6% (± 5.5%; n = 65) of farms in 2021/2022. Comparison of self-reported clinical scab cases with the ELISA test results identified a group of farms (n = 52) that did not report scab in 2020, or in some cases did not report having scab over the previous 8 years (n = 20), but whose flocks were nevertheless seropositive in 2021/2022. Conclusion: A small number of flocks, particularly those using common grazings in North England, where handling is infrequent, often comprising less susceptible sheep breeds, may have persistent scab infestations that are generally undetected by clinical inspection. The data highlight the advantages of serological testing to identify exposure to scab in flocks where clinical signs are less easily detected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]