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In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a comparison of the characteristics of the electricity demand for London, UK and Athens, Greece and explores its relationship with both climate and non-climate related factors. Year-to-year trends for both cities are identified, associated mainly with economic, social and demographic factors. In addition, several other effects such as weekly and holiday effects, unrelated to weather conditions are detected and are examined in comparison for the two cities. Gross National Product (GNP) per capita has been employed to aid de-trend the data in order to isolate the weather/climate influence on electricity demand. Temperature has been found to play the most important role in controlling the electricity load demand, especially for Athens. For both cities electricity demand peaks in winter but for Athens a second significant peak is apparent in the summer, not present in London. Thermal comfort levels for both cities have also been identified and compared. The optimum ambient temperature for low levels of electricity demand is found to be 20°C for Athens and 16°C for London. Using the approach of cooling and heating degree-days, it was identified that the sensitivity of the system electricity-demand/air-temperature is greater during the cold period of the year for both cities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective: There are a number of published criteria for the investigation of asymmetrical audiovestibular symptoms. Our aim was to determine the agreement between these protocols when determining whether to investigate a group of patients treated at our institution., Materials and Methods: Retrospective audit of the indications for arranging 854 consecutive magnetic resonance imaging scans of the internal auditory meatus. These indications were compared to the Oxford, Northern, Charing Cross, and Nashville guidelines on the investigation of asymmetrical audiovestibular symptoms., Results: The level of agreement was low, with kappa values ranging between 0.15 and 0.58 between the four selected protocols., Discussion: While these criteria seem very similar in nature, due to the number of patients with mild asymmetry and subtle distinctions such as the inclusion or exclusion of tinnitus, there are low levels of agreement between protocols. This study highlights another area of difficulty when determining which patients to investigate.