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This study investigated cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on somatic cell counts (SCC) in early lactation. Data from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales were collected over a 2-yr period. For the purpose of analysis, cows were separated into those housed for the dry period (6,419 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (7,425 cow-dry periods). Bayesian multilevel models were specified with 2 response variables: In SCC (continuous) and SCC >199,000 cells/mL (binary), both within 30 d of calving. Cow factors associated with an increased SCC after calving were parity, an SCC >199,000 cells/mL in the 60 d before drying off, increasing milk yield 0 to 30 d before drying off, and reduced DIM after calving at the time of SCC estimation. Herd management factors associated with an increased SCC after calving included procedures at drying off, aspects of bedding management, stocking density, and method of pasture grazing. Posterior predictions were used for model assessment, and these indicated that model fit was generally good. The research demonstrated that specific dry-period management strategies have an important influence on SCC in early lactation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately 1500/6000 cattle farms that were depopulated during the foot and mouth epidemic in GB in 2001 had been repopulated and subjected to two unrestricted (herd considered free from bovine tuberculosis (bTB)) herd tests. Factors associated with herd breakdown(s) (HBD) and individual cattle reactor status at the second test were investigated. There were 96 HBD in total, with a 3-fold increased risk of HBD in herds that had had a HBD at the first test after restocking. Two mixed effect models were used to investigate factors associated with 324/246,060 reactor cattle at the second bTB test; 228 reactors were at confirmed HBD and 96 at unconfirmed HBD; 253 (79%) reactors at the second test were present and test negative at the first test. In confirmed HBD, the odds of cattle reacting were higher if the restocked farm had a history of bTB before 2001 and if the source and restocked farms were high frequency tested (HFT) farms (routine bTB tests at ≥1 per 2 years). Reacting cattle were more likely to have been born on the restocked farm before the first test after FMD and less likely to have been purchased from a low frequency tested (LFT) farm (routine bTB tests at 3-4 year intervals) after the first test compared with a baseline of cattle purchased from a LFT farm before the first test. Unconfirmed HBD at the second test was more likely when the first test was a confirmed HBD and when there was a history of bTB in the restocked farm. In contrast to confirmed HBD, cattle purchased from a LFT farm after the first test were at increased risk of reacting at an unconfirmed HBD at the second test. We conclude that a farm history of bTB suggests persistence of bTB on the farm. Confirmed tests indicate exposure to bTB for some time indicated by the increased risk from HFT source and restocked farms and a farm history of bTB. The risks for reactors are related to the farm and herd and duration of exposure to these risks. Therefore, the spread of bTB to naïve herds would be reduced if farmers only introduced cattle known not to have been in herds and on farms exposed to bTB. Management of bTB on farms with bTB is complicated because there is undisclosed infection in cattle and environmental contamination., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Our hypothesis was that pigs that develop post-weaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) are detectable from an early age with signs of weight loss and other clinical and serological abnormalities. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the temporally varying and fixed events linked with the clinical incidence of PMWS by comparing affected and unaffected pigs in a cohort of 178 male piglets. Piglets were enrolled at birth and examined each week. Samples of blood were collected at regular intervals. The exposures measured were porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) antibody titres in all 178 and PCV2 antigen in a subset of 75 piglets. We also observed piglet health and measured their weight, and a post-mortem examination was performed by an external laboratory on all pigs between 6 and 14 weeks of age that died. From the cohort, 14 (8%) pigs died from PMWS and 4% from other causes. A further 37 pigs between 6 and 14 weeks of age died from PMWS (30) and ileitis and other causes (7). PMWS was only apparent in pigs from 1 to 2 weeks before death when they wasted rapidly. There were no other characteristic clinical signs and no obvious gross clinical lesions post-mortem. There was no strong link with PCV2 antibody throughout life but PCV2 antigen level was higher from 4 to 6 weeks of age in pigs that died from PMWS compared with pigs that died from other causes., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is caused by Mycobacterium bovis. The disease has a long latent period, heterogenous spread, can infect many species and can persist in the environment. In the UK, the rate of herd breakdowns (HBD) with bTB is increasing. A retrospective cohort study of 148 cattle herds was set up to investigate risk factors for HBD from October 2001 to November 2004. Herds were selected from farms located in the randomised badger culling trial (RBCT) and comprised holdings (24%) that were restocked with cattle after the foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in 2001 and holdings (76%) that were continuously stocked throughout the FMD epidemic. Farmers were interviewed between June 2003 and February 2004. Questions on herd and farm management were asked for the period October 2001 to June 2003. Data on herd testing for bTB were sourced from the VetNet database and historic data from 1995 were used in the analysis. A discrete time survival analysis was used to examine factors associated with the risk of HBD. By the end of the study period, November 2004, 50% of study herds had experienced a HBD with bTB at least once. Farms that were restocked for less than 1 year after FMD had a reduced risk of HBD (P<0.01) compared with continuously stocked farms in the same year. This reduced risk did not persist after 1 year of restocking. Feeding vitamin and mineral lick supplements compared with not feeding these supplements also reduced the risk of HBD. Factors associated with an increased risk of HBD were storing manure and slurry indoors or in a closed container, spreading manure all year round, herds with dairy cattle compared with herds without dairy cattle, increasing herd size, purchase of cattle from markets, location of the farm in the proactive area of the RBCT compared with survey only and location of farms in Somerset and North Devon. The lower risk of HBD in the first year after restocking but not the second or third year suggests that removal of all cattle might have lowered the infectious load of M. bovis on these premises for a period of time but that this did not persist once cattle were reintroduced. Purchase of cattle from markets suggests that there was a risk of introduction or re-introduction of bTB from these cattle. Method of storage or lack of storage of slurry might aid persistence of M. bovis in the environment if M. bovis survives in slurry in some circumstances., (Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The aim of this study was to investigate the cattle-exposure factors associated with the risk of a bovine animal reacting to a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) skin test at a whole herd test. There were 148 study farms enrolled. These were located in six counties of the south west of England in an area considered endemic for bovine tuberculosis (bTB): 24% were restocked after foot and mouth disease (FMD) in 2001; all farms were located within the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) area. Data on cattle on these farms were sourced from the bTB Vetnet database from 1996 to 2004 and from the British Cattle Movement Scheme database. Individual animal records were created that included data on whether or not an animal became a reactor at a full-herd bTB test between 1 June 2001 and 19 August 2004, their prior exposure to cattle with bTB (defined by presence at a bTB test where at least one reactor was detected), whether the animal was homebred, the farm history of bTB and the farm restocking status. Data from 144 farms were used, 4 farms had no data. Cattle were more likely to react to the bTB skin test when they had been present at a previous bTB herd test (or tests) where other cattle had reacted to the skin test. This positively correlated with age and the number of bTB tests an animal had had. Cattle on restocked farms were less likely to react to the skin test compared with cattle on continuously stocked farms. These results highlight the likely importance of exposure to infected cattle at a previous test as a source of infection to cattle that subsequently became reactors and suggest that there was a lower risk of exposure to bTB to cattle in newly formed herds.

The fundamental objective for health research is to determine whether changes should be made to clinical decisions. Decisions made by veterinary surgeons in the light of new research evidence are known to be influenced by their prior beliefs, especially their initial opinions about the plausibility of possible results. In this paper, clinical trial results for a bovine mastitis control plan were evaluated within a Bayesian context, to incorporate a community of prior distributions that represented a spectrum of clinical prior beliefs. The aim was to quantify the effect of veterinary surgeons' initial viewpoints on the interpretation of the trial results. A Bayesian analysis was conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Stochastic models included a financial cost attributed to a change in clinical mastitis following implementation of the control plan. Prior distributions were incorporated that covered a realistic range of possible clinical viewpoints, including scepticism, enthusiasm and uncertainty. Posterior distributions revealed important differences in the financial gain that clinicians with different starting viewpoints would anticipate from the mastitis control plan, given the actual research results. For example, a severe skeptic would ascribe a probability of 0.50 for a return of < 5 UK pounds per cow in an average herd that implemented the plan, whereas an enthusiast would ascribe this probability for a return of > 20 UK pounds per cow. Simulations using increased trial sizes indicated that if the original study was four times as large, an initial skeptic would be more convinced about the efficacy of the control plan but would still anticipate less financial return than an initial enthusiast would anticipate after the original study. In conclusion, it is possible to estimate how clinicians' prior beliefs influence their interpretation of research evidence. Further research on the extent to which different interpretations of evidence result in changes to clinical practice would be worthwhile.

Repeated measures data for rotavirus infection in children within 14 day care centres (DCCs) in the Oxfordshire area, UK, are used to explore aspects of rotavirus transmission and immunity. A biologically realistic model for the transmission of infection is presented as a set of probability models suitable for application to the data. Two transition events are modelled separately: incidence and recovery. The complexity of the underlying mechanistic model is reflected in the choice of the fixed variables in the probability models. Parameter estimation was carried out using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We use the parameter estimates obtained to build a profile of the natural history of rotavirus reinfection in an individual child. We infer that rotavirus transmission in children in DCCs is dependent on the DCC prevalence, with symptomatic infection of longer duration, but no more infectious per day of infectious period, than asymptomatic infection. There was evidence that a recent previous infection reduces the risk of disease and, to a lesser extent, reinfection, but not duration of infection. The results provide evidence that partial immunity to rotavirus infection develops over several time scales.

The purpose of the research was to investigate cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on the rate of clinical mastitis after calving. Data were collected over a 2-yr period from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales. Cows were separated for analysis into those housed for the dry period (8,710 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (9,964 cow-dry periods). Multilevel models were used within a Bayesian framework with 2 response variables, the occurrence of a first case of clinical mastitis within the first 30 d of lactation and time to the first case of clinical mastitis during lactation. A variety of cow and herd management factors were identified as being associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis and these were found to occur throughout the dry period. Significant cow factors were increased parity and at least one somatic cell count > or = 200,000 cells/mL in the 90 d before drying off. A number of management factors related to hygiene were significantly associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis. These included measures linked to the administration of dry-cow treatments and management of the early and late dry-period accommodation and calving areas. Other farm factors associated with a reduced rate of clinical mastitis were vaccination with a leptospirosis vaccine, selection of dry-cow treatments for individual cows within a herd rather than for the herd as a whole, routine body condition scoring of cows at drying off, and a pasture rotation policy of grazing dry cows for a maximum of 2 wk before allowing the pasture to remain nongrazed for a period of 4 wk. Models demonstrated a good ability to predict the farm incidence rate of clinical mastitis in a given year, with model predictions explaining over 85% of the variability in the observed data. The research indicates that specific dry-period management strategies have an important influence on the rate of clinical mastitis during the next lactation.

A total of 160 ewes on one farm in England were studied for 18 months. The incidence of footrot and interdigital dermatitis in individually identified sheep and treatment and flock control measures were recorded. A binomial mixed effect model with the incidence of footrot or interdigital dermatitis as the outcome was used to investigate patterns of association between treatments, flock control measures and the incidence of footrot or interdigital dermatitis. In this one flock, the incidence of footrot and interdigital dermatitis was positively associated with the incidence of footrot and interdigital dermatitis and with trimming of feet and negatively associated with the use of parenteral antibiotics and topical antibiotic sprays in either the first and/or second 2-week period prior to the incidence of interest. These results provide two hypotheses: one that 'footrot and interdigital dermatitis are infectious diseases that can be controlled, in part, through the use of antibiotic therapy, which acts to reduce the infectious period of diseased sheep' and two, that 'routine trimming of diseased and healthy feet exacerbate disease, through environmental contamination and/or through increased susceptibility of sheep with recently trimmed feet'.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

To assess the prevalence and patterns of bacterial isolates, cultures were made from the dry mammary glands of dairy cows in six commercial dairy herds in the UK. Milk samples were taken from all four quarters of 480 cows at drying off and at weekly intervals from 14 days before to seven days after calving. A major mastitis pathogen was isolated from at least one quarter of 220 (45.8 per cent) of the cows and from more than one quarter of 90 (18.8 per cent) of them. During the late dry to calving period, of the 957 quarters with three culture results, a major mastitis pathogen was cultured from 236 (24.7 per cent) quarters of 186 (38.8 [corrected] per cent) cows. The most commonly isolated major pathogen was Escherichia coli, followed by Streptococcus uberis and coagulase-positive staphylococci. There were significant differences between the patterns of isolates from different farms and in different calving months, suggesting that the rate of infection was partially dependent on external conditions. The isolation of E. coli, S. uberis or coagulase-positive staphylococci from a cow during the late dry/periparturient period was associated with an increased risk of that cow being culled in the next lactation. Bayesian general linear mixed models were used to assess the associations between the different bacterial species. The probability of isolating either E. coli or S. uberis was significantly greater when the other organism was cultured in a milk sample; this was also true of coagulase-positive staphylococci and S. uberis. When Corynebacterium species were isolated from a milk sample, the probability of isolating coagulase-positive staphylococci or S. uberis decreased significantly, and when coagulase-negative staphylococci were isolated the probability of isolating coagulase-positive staphylococci was reduced.

Two analytical approaches were used to investigate the relationship between somatic cell concentrations in monthly quarter milk samples and subsequent, naturally occurring clinical mastitis in three dairy herds. Firstly, cows with clinical mastitis were selected and a conventional matched analysis was used to compare affected and unaffected quarters of the same cow. The second analysis included all cows, and in order to overcome potential bias associated with the correlation structure, a hierarchical Bayesian generalised linear mixed model was specified. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, that is Gibbs sampling, was used to estimate parameters. The results of both the matched analysis and the hierarchical modelling suggested that quarters with a somatic cell count (SCC) in the range 41,000-100,000 cells/ml had a lower risk of clinical mastitis during the next month than quarters <41,000 cell/ml. Quarters with an SCC >200,000 cells/ml were at the greatest risk of clinical mastitis in the next month. There was a reduced risk of clinical mastitis between 1 and 2 months later in quarters with an SCC of 81,000-150,000 cells/ml compared with quarters below this level. The hierarchical modelling analysis identified a further reduced risk of clinical mastitis between 2 and 3 months later in quarters with an SCC 61,000-150,000 cells/ml, compared to other quarters. We conclude that low concentrations of somatic cells in milk are associated with increased risk of clinical mastitis, and that high concentrations are indicative of pre-existing immunological mobilisation against infection. The variation in risk between quarters of affected cows suggests that local quarter immunological events, rather than solely whole cow factors, have an important influence on the risk of clinical mastitis. MCMC proved a useful tool for estimating parameters in a hierarchical Bernoulli model. Model construction and an approach to assessing goodness of model fit are described.