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Background: The 2009 pandemic H1N1 (A(H1N1)pdm09) influenza A virus (IAV) has replaced the previous seasonal H1N1 strain in humans and continues to circulate worldwide. The comparative performance of inactivated A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccines remains of considerable interest. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of two licensed A(H1N1)pdm09 inactivated vaccines (AS03B adjuvanted split virion Pandemrix from GlaxoSmithKline and referred here as (V1) and non‐adjuvanted whole virion Celvapan from Baxter and referred here as (V2)) in ferrets as a pre‐clinical model for human disease intervention. Methods: Naïve ferrets were divided into two groups (V1 and V2) and immunised intramuscularly with two different A/California/07/2009‐derived inactivated vaccines, V1 administered in a single dose and V2 administered in 2 doses separated by 21 days. Six weeks after the first immunisation, vaccinated animals and a non‐vaccinated control (NVC) group were intra‐nasally challenged with 106.5 TCID50 of the isolate A/England/195/2009 A(H1N1)pdm09 with 99.1% amino acid identity to the vaccine strain. Clinical signs, lung histopathology, viral quantification and antibody responses were evaluated. Results and Conclusions: Results revealed important qualitative differences in the performance of both inactivated vaccines in relation to protection against challenge with a comparable virus in a naive animal (ferret) model of human disease. Vaccine V1 limited and controlled viral shedding and reduced lower respiratory tract infection. In contrast, vaccine V2 did not control infection and animals showed sustained viral shedding and delayed lower respiratory infection, resulting in pulmonary lesions, suggesting lower efficacy of V2 vaccine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, Public Health England have developed a suite of real-time statistical models utilising enhanced pandemic surveillance data to nowcast and forecast a future pandemic. Their ability to track seasonal influenza and predict heightened winter healthcare burden in the light of high activity in Australia in 2017 was untested.Methods: Four transmission models were used in forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England: a stratified primary care model using daily, region-specific, counts and virological swab positivity of influenza-like illness consultations in general practice (GP); a strain-specific (SS) model using weekly, national GP ILI and virological data; an intensive care model (ICU) using reports of ICU influenza admissions; and a synthesis model that included all data sources. For the first 12 weeks of 2018, each model was applied to the latest data to provide estimates of epidemic parameters and short-term influenza forecasts. The added value of pre-season population susceptibility data was explored.Results: The combined results provided valuable nowcasts of the state of the epidemic. Short-term predictions of burden on primary and secondary health services were initially highly variable before reaching consensus beyond the observed peaks in activity between weeks 3-4 of 2018. Estimates for R0 were consistent over time for three of the four models until week 12 of 2018, and there was consistency in the estimation of R0 across the SPC and SS models, and in the ICU attack rates estimated by the ICU and the synthesis model. Estimation and predictions varied according to the assumed levels of pre-season immunity.Conclusions: This exercise successfully applied a range of pandemic models to seasonal influenza. Forecasting early in the season remains challenging but represents a crucially important activity to inform planning. Improved knowledge of pre-existing levels of immunity would be valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• H3N2 serology titres were highest in those with current season influenza vaccination. • Titres were higher in those with past season vaccination over those with no vaccination recorded. • Influenza vaccination protection was good against influenza requiring emergency care in children. • Vaccine effectiveness in adults was modest. We present England 2021/22 end-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against laboratory confirmed influenza related emergency care use in children aged 1–17 and in adults aged 50+, and serological findings in vaccinated vs unvaccinated adults by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Influenza vaccination has been routinely offered to all children aged 2–10 years and adults aged 65 years + in England. In 2021/22, the offer was extended to children to age 15 years, and adults aged 50–64 years. Influenza activity rose during the latter half of the 2021/22 season, while remaining comparatively low due to COVID-19 pandemic control measures. Influenza A(H3N2) strains predominated. A test negative design was used to estimate aVE by vaccine type. Cases and controls were identified within a sentinel laboratory surveillance system. Vaccine histories were obtained from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS), an influenza and COVID-19 vaccine registry. These were linked to emergency department presentations (excluding accidents) with respiratory swabbing ≤ 14 days before or ≤ 7 days after presentation. Amongst adults, 423 positive and 32,917 negative samples were eligible for inclusion, and 145 positive and 6,438 negative samples among children. Those admitted to hospital were further identified. In serology against the circulating A(H3N2) A/Bangladesh/4005/2020-like strain, 61 % of current season adult vaccinees had titres ≥ 1:40 compared to 17 % of those unvaccinated in 2020/21 or 2021/22 (p < 0.001). We found good protection from influenza vaccination against influenza requiring emergency care in children (72.7 % [95 % CI 52.7, 84.3 %]) and modest effectiveness in adults (26.1 % [95 % CI 4.5, 42.8 %]). Adult VE was higher for A(H1N1) (81 % [95 % CI 50, 93 %]) than A(H3N2) (33 % [95 % CI 6, 53 %]). Consistent protection was observable across preschool, primary and secondary school aged children. Imperfect test specificity combined with very low prevalence may have biased estimates towards null. With limited influenza circulation, the study could not determine differences by vaccine types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In England, during pandemic 2009 H1N1, vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity population studies in priority groups were rolled out in parallel to evaluate the pandemic vaccination programme. This provided a unique opportunity to compare immunogenicity and clinical protection in the same population and thus provide insights into the correlates of protection for the pandemic H1N1 2009 vaccine in risk groups. While clinical protection from AS03-adjuvanted pandemic 2009 H1N1 vaccine was high in those aged <25 years and pregnant women, effectiveness in older adults with chronic conditions has been found to be surprisingly poor. Here we present results from the immunogenicity study derived from the same population. Individuals from priority groups eligible for pandemic vaccination attending participating general practices were recruited. Pre and post-vaccination blood samples were collected and HI antibody testing to assess immune response to vaccination performed. The final cohort consisted of 610 individuals: 60 healthy children aged <5 years; 32 healthy pregnant women; 518 individuals from risk groups. Seroconversion rate in healthy children aged <5 years (87%, 95% CI: 75% to 94%) was higher than that of risk groups combined (65%, 95% CI: 61% to 69%) (p<0.001). Multivariable analysis of risk groups showed that the size of response in those who did seroconvert was lower in those who received the 2009/10 seasonal TIV (Fold effect: 0.52, 0.35 to 0.78). Predicted immunological boosting from higher pre-vaccine titres after 2009 pandemic H1N1 vaccination only occurred in children (seroconversion rate = 92%) and not in individuals aged 10 to 39 from risk groups (seroconversion rate = 74%). The lack of clinical protection identified in the same population in older adults from risk groups could be attributed to these lower seroresponses. Current immunogenicity licensing criteria for pandemic influenza vaccine may not correlate with clinical protection in individuals with chronic disease or immunocompromised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intense influenza activity in England during the 2010-11 winter resulted from a combination of factors. Population-based seroepidemiology confirms that the third wave of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulation was associated with a shift in age groups affected, with the highest rate of infection in young adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted a seroepidemiologic study during an outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a boarding school in England. Overall, 353 (17%) of students and staff completed a questionnaire and provided a serum sample. The attack rate was 40.5% and 34.1% for self-reported acute respiratory infection (ARI). Staff were less likely to be seropositive than students 13-15 years of age (staff 20-49 years, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.30; ≥50 years AOR 0.20). Teachers were more likely to be seropositive than other staff (AOR 7.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.31-24.2). Of seropositive persons, 44.6% (95% CI 36.2%-53.3%) did not report ARI. Conversely, of 141 with ARI and 63 with influenza-like illness, 45.8% (95% CI 37.0%-54.0%) and 30.2% (95% CI 19.2%-43.0%) had negative test results, respectively. A weak association was found between seropositivity and a prophylactic dose of antiviral agents (AOR 0.55, 95% CI 0.30-0.99); prophylactic antiviral agents lowered the odds of ARI by 50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Children with cancer have an increased susceptibility to influenza infection. The objective of this study was to assess the immunogenicity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine in children with cancer Methods. Children were recruited from the Royal Marsden Hospital, England, during November 2009. The vaccination schedule consisted of 2 doses of an AS03B-adjuvanted vaccine given at days 0 and 21. Serological analysis was performed on blood samples obtained at day 0 and day 42. The primary immunological end point was the seroconversion rate, which was defined as the proportion of subjects with an individual 4-fold increase in hemagglutination inhibition titer and a postvaccination hemagglutination inhibition titer ⩾1:32. Results. Fifty-four children with a median age of 6.3 years (range, 1.4-16.6 years) were vaccinated and had samples taken for serological analysis. Twenty-four (44.4%) of 54 children demonstrated seroconversion. Seroconversion rates were 33.3% (9 of 27) among children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, 36.4% (4 of 11) among those with lymphoma or other leukemias, 66.7% (6 of 9) among those with brain tumors, and 71.4% (5 of 7) among those with other solid tumors. Seroconversion occurred in 4 (28.6%) of 14 children receiving acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance therapy. Univariate analysis showed significantly higher responses among children with solid tumors, compared with those with hematological malignancies (11 [68.8%] of 16 vs 13 [34.2%] of 38; P=.03), and among those not receiving treatment, compared with those receiving treatment (7 [87.5%] of 8 vs 17 [37.0%] of 46; P=.02). Multivariable analysis showed that age, cancer type, and lymphopenia did not influence seroconversion rates. Conclusion. These data suggest that this AS03B-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine can induce limited but useful protective immune responses in children with cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a cross-sectional serological survey on the 2009 influence A H1N1 pandemic in England. A total of 1,403 serum samples were taken in 2008 and 1,954 serum samples in August and September 2009. Haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation assays were utilized to measure antibody titres. Study authors found that haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation antibody increased with age. They also concluded that pre-existing antibody in older age people protects them against infection. They added that children plays a significant role in influenza transmission.

Under International Health Regulations from 2005, a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus variant is considered an event that has potential for high public health impact and is immediately notifiable to the World Health Organisation. We here describe the clinical, epidemiological and virological features of a confirmed human case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England detected through community respiratory virus surveillance. Swabbing and contact tracing helped refine public health risk assessment, following this unusual and unexpected finding.

We investigated an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.2.86 in an East of England care home. We identified 45 infections (33 residents, 12 staff), among 38 residents and 66 staff. Twenty-nine of 43 PCR swabs were sequenced, all of which were variant BA.2.86. The attack rate among residents was 87%, 19 were symptomatic, and one was hospitalised. Twenty-four days after the outbreak started, no cases were still unwell. Among the 33 resident cases, 29 had been vaccinated 4 months earlier.

Background: In England, the reopening of universities in September 2020 coincided with a rapid increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in university aged young adults. This study aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in students attending universities that had experienced a COVID-19 outbreak after reopening for the autumn term in September 2020., Methods: A cross-sectional serosurvey was conducted during 02-11 December 2020 in students aged ≤ 25 years across five universities in England. Blood samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing were obtained using a self-sampling kit and analysed using the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 N antibody and/or an in-house receptor binding domain (RBD) assay., Findings: SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2,905 university students was 17.8% (95%CI, 16.5-19.3), ranging between 7.6%-29.7% across the five universities. Seropositivity was associated with being younger likely to represent first year undergraduates (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 2.0-4.9), living in halls of residence (aOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.7) and sharing a kitchen with an increasing number of students (shared with 4-7 individuals, aOR 1.43, 95%CI 1.12-1.82; shared with 8 or more individuals, aOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.04-2.24). Seropositivity was 49% in students living in halls of residence that reported high SARS-CoV-2 infection rates (>8%) during the autumn term., Interpretation: Despite large numbers of cases and outbreaks in universities, less than one in five students (17.8%) overall had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the end of the autumn term in England. In university halls of residence affected by a COVID-19 outbreak, however, nearly half the resident students became infected and developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies., (Crown Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We describe results of testing blood donors in London, UK, for severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG before and after lockdown measures. Anonymized samples from donors 17-69 years of age were tested using 3 assays: Euroimmun IgG, Abbott IgG, and an immunoglobulin receptor-binding domain assay developed by Public Health England. Seroprevalence increased from 3.0% prelockdown (week 13, beginning March 23, 2020) to 10.4% during lockdown (weeks 15-16) and 12.3% postlockdown (week 18) by the Abbott assay. Estimates were 2.9% prelockdown, 9.9% during lockdown, and 13.0% postlockdown by the Euroimmun assay and 3.5% prelockdown, 11.8% during lockdown, and 14.1% postlockdown by the receptor-binding domain assay. By early May 2020, nearly 1 in 7 donors had evidence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Combining results from the Abbott and Euroimmun assays increased seroprevalence by 1.6%, 2.3%, and 0.6% at the 3 timepoints compared with Euroimmun alone, demonstrating the value of using multiple assays.

Background: Rapidly undertaken age-stratified serology studies can produce valuable data about a new emerging infection including background population immunity and seroincidence during an influenza pandemic. Traditionally seroepidemiology studies have used surplus laboratory sera with little or no clinical information or have been expensive detailed population based studies. We propose collecting population based sera from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), a sentinel network with extensive clinical data., Aim: To pilot a mechanism to undertake population based surveys that collect serological specimens and associated patient data to measure seropositivity and seroincidence due to seasonal influenza, and create a population based serology bank. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Setting and Participants: We will recruit 6 RCGP RSC practices already taking nasopharyngeal virology swabs. Patients who attend a scheduled blood test will be consented to donate additional blood samples. Approximately 100-150 blood samples will be collected from each of the following age bands - 18- 29, 30- 39, 40- 49, 50- 59, 60- 69 and 70+ years., Methods: We will send the samples to the Public Health England (PHE) Seroepidemiology Unit for processing and storage. These samples will be tested for influenza antibodies, using haemagglutination inhibition assays. Serology results will be pseudonymised, sent to the RCGP RSC and combined using existing processes at the RCGP RSC secure hub. The influenza seroprevalence results from the RCGP cohort will be compared against those from the annual PHE influenza residual serosurvey., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethical approval was granted by the Proportionate Review Sub- Committee of the London - Camden & Kings Cross on 6 February 2018. This study received approval from Health Research Authority on 7 February 2018. On completion the results will be made available via peer-reviewed journals., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Simon de Lusignan has received grant funding through University of Surrey from GSK to report vaccine adverse events and attended advisory boards for Sanofi and Seqirus., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.