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Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two Baltic Sea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and MIKE SHE or MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transport. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) defined change in land use and agricultural activities. The climate change scenarios covered 2041–2060 compared with 1991–2010 under RCP8.5, applying four different climate models. Increases in predicted N-load from climate change vary from 20 to 60% depending on climate model. SSPs moderate these N-load changes with small changes for SSP1 to large increases for SSP5, with greater increases for Norsminde than Kocinka due to land use differences. This stresses needs for new measures and governing schemes to meet sustainability targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A cost minimization model for supply of starch, oil, sugar, grassy and woody biomass for bioenergy in Denmark was developed using linear programming. The model includes biomass supply from annual crops on arable land, short rotation forestry (willow) and plantation forestry. Crop area distributions were simulated using cost data for year 2005. Five scenarios with different constraints, e.g. on food and feed supply and on nitrogen balance were considered focusing on: a) constraints as the year 2005, b) landscape aesthetics and biodiversity c) groundwater protection, d) maintaining current food and feed production, or e) on site carbon sequestration. In addition, two oil price levels were considered. The crop area distributions differed between scenarios and were affected by changing fossil oil prices up to index 300 (using 55$ per barrel in 2005 as index=100). The bioenergy supply (district heating, electric power, biogas, RME or bioethanol) varied between 56PJ in the “2005” scenario at oil index 100 and 158PJ at oil index 300 in the groundwater scenario. Our simple model demonstrates the effect of prioritizing multiple uses of land resources for food, feed or bioenergy, while maintaining a low nitrogen load to the environment. In conclusion, even after drastic landuse changes the bioenergy supply as final energy will not exceed 184PJ annually (including 26PJ processed biowaste sources) by far lower than the annual domestic total energy consumption ranging between 800 and 850PJ yr−1. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]