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This study explores the past, present and future ecological changes in the highest Mediterranean temporary pond (Omalos pond) in western Crete, Greece. Data from downcore pollen analysis (including pollen and spores from both aquatic vegetation, and terrestrial herbaceous, arboreal and shrub vegetation), modern vegetation monitoring and existing climate scenarios have been combined to provide a picture of the ecological changes in the pond over the last 13,600 years. Downcore pollen analysis throughout the last 13,600 years indicated the presence of species typical of Mediterranean Temporary Pond (MTP) habitats and suggested relatively drier conditions towards the present. The low number of non-native, cultivated species (such as herbaceous Trifolium and Plantago species) observed over this period suggested relatively low impact from crop agriculture, despite the increasing grazing pressure in the area. In the absence of independent proxies, we cannot reliably distinguish between natural and human-induced changes. The presence of aquatic Isoetes in the palaeo-record indicates the existence of an ephemeral pond in the area as early as the beginning of the Holocene suggesting resilience of the ecosystem over time. However, the degraded state of pollen in depths over 55 cm (i.e. 3600 year BP) increases the uncertainty of the interpretation. Currently, the pond holds 76 plant species belonging to 25 families. Therophytes and chamaephytes were the most frequent, suggesting a typical ephemeral habitat life form spectrum. Species richness was found to increase during spring surveys whereas the highest turnover was observed between summer surveys of consecutive years. Cluster analysis demonstrated a distinct zonation in four vegetation belts from the periphery to the centre of the pond which is typical of these environments. Modelling, based on two IPPC scenarios (A2 and B2), predicted relatively low climate change impacts on the pond’s hydroperiod for the next 100 years (i.e. a decrease of 16 and 24 days, respectively). This reduction in the hydroperiod of the pond will have an effect on the physiognomy and spatial extent of vegetation, particularly for the transitional belts between the core and its outer area, while it will exert more pressure on the pond as a water resource for sheep in the region. However, cumulative effects and complex interactions of climate-driven environmental changes and other anthropogenic disturbances might act synergistically to accelerate impacts in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study was to establish and verify a predictive vegetation model for plant community distribution in the alti-Mediterranean zone of the Lefka Ori massif, western Crete. Based on previous work three variables were identified as significant determinants of plant community distribution, namely altitude, slope angle and geomorphic landform. The response of four community types against these variables was tested using classification trees analysis in order to model community type occurrence. V-fold cross-validation plots were used to determine the length of the best fitting tree. The final 9node tree selected, classified correctly 92.5% of the samples. The results were used to provide decision rules for the construction of a spatial model for each community type. The model was implemented within a Geographical Information System (GIS) to predict the distribution of each community type in the study site. The evaluation of the model in the field using an error matrix gave an overall accuracy of 71%. The user’s accuracy was higher for the Crepis–Cirsium (100%) and Telephium–Herniaria community type (66.7%) and relatively lower for the Peucedanum–Alyssum and Dianthus–Lomelosia community types (63.2% and 62.5%, respectively). Misclassification and field validation points to the need for improved geomorphological mapping and suggests the presence of transitional communities between existing community types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High mountain zones in the Mediterranean area are considered more vulnerable in comparison to lower altitudes zones. Lefka Ori massif, a global biodiversity hotspot on the island of Crete is part of the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) monitoring network. The paper examines species and vegetation changes with respect to climate and altitude over a seven-year period (2001–2008) at a range of spatial scales (10 m Summit Area Section-SAS, 5 m SAS, 1 m2) using the GLORIA protocol in a re-survey of four mountain summits (1664 m–2339 m). The absolute species loss between 2001–2008 was 4, among which were 2 endemics. At the scale of individual summits, the highest changes were recorded at the lower summits with absolute species loss 4 in both cases. Paired t-tests for the total species richness at 1 m2 between 2001–2008, showed no significant differences. No significant differences were found at the individual summit level neither at the 5 m SAS or the 10 m SAS. Time series analysis reveals that soil mean annual temperature is increasing at all summits. Linear regressions with the climatic variables show a positive effect on species richness at the 5 m and 10 m SAS as well as species changes at the 5 m SAS. In particular, June mean temperature has the highest predictive power for species changes at the 5 m SAS. Recorded changes in species richness point more towards fluctuations within a plant community's normal range, although there seem to be more significant diversity changes in higher summits related to aspects. Our work provides additional evidence to assess the effects of climate change on plant diversity in Mediterranean mountains and particularly those of islands which remain understudied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]